Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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Quoting StormW:


I don't know...do you have the previous run?

Current:


6 hours ago:
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1500. Levi32
Quoting pipelines:
If the circulation wasn't closed, how would it be able to burst convection with this kind of shear? A few days ago when it had its coc open on the south side, 7kts of wind sheer tore it wide open. I just assumed the coc had closed off again due to the convection burst.



Well the center may not have been closed this morning but it was well-defined and circular....the pull of the low pressure just wasn't enough to reverse the fast easterly trade winds. As for why it is fighting the shear this well, that is a little surprising at how much it's fighting, but I never expected to just lay down and die. It's carrying a ton of moisture with it, and with the SSTs as warm as they are underneath it, I fully expected it to try bursting convection at night like it has been all along. I didn't quite expect this much of a fight though, and starting earlier in the day than any burst so far, and probably lasting the longer than the last MCC it had.

This shows the moisture:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
Quoting AustinTXWeather:



Is the possibly closed center to be expected or a bit surprising?
I find it surprising as it is under very heavy upper level winds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
GOOD BACK TO NORMAL




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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
There's 50knt winds to the NW where it is heading and 92L will go through DMAX in a few hours so after that, will it dissipate?
Doesn't matter what we think lol. We keep saying "if it doesn't make it through _______ it will die."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm a constant lurker on here and appreciate all the great info. Not looking for any special favors but I have a friend working in Haiti and I'm his designated "weather watcher" and "evacuation consultant". I'll be watching info every day for the rest of the season. Thanks for all you do.
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1495. NoLa86
70037 ty
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There's 50knt winds to the NW where it is heading and 92L will go through DMAX in a few hours so after that, will it dissipate?
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Right over Haiti ATM.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1490. JLPR2
92L is taking advantage of an area of even higher TCHP east of the islands

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8526
Quoting Levi32:
Wow that just made me really happy. Martinique radar just randomly loaded a frame that cued me in to the exact position of 92L's center. Talk about timing....we needed a good center fix. It is west of the big blob as expected, but some showers are actually moving from the west on its south side, indicating it may be closed again.



so wemay have a TD or TS by oh say sat?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114785
Levi storm and drakeon are the best thanks guys for all you do on here
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Quoting StormW:


Ya beat me to it! Was looking at the same thing...nice post Levi!!

Quoting Levi32:
Wow that just made me really happy. Martinique radar just randomly loaded a frame that cued me in to the exact position of 92L's center. Talk about timing....we needed a good center fix. It is west of the big blob as expected, but some showers are actually moving from the west on its south side, indicating it may be closed again.



Is the possibly closed center to be expected or a bit surprising?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1485. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
Wow that just made me really happy. Martinique radar just randomly loaded a frame that cued me in to the exact position of 92L's center. Talk about timing....we needed a good center fix. It is west of the big blob as expected, but some showers are actually moving from the west on its south side, indicating it may be closed again.



therefore 92L is actually organizing despite the shear
O_o seems 2010 will be filled with surprises
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8526
Quoting HouGalv08:
Skyepony mentioned crazy SST west of 60degW. Could someone post a current SST map, please?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the circulation wasn't closed, how would it be able to burst convection with this kind of shear? A few days ago when it had its coc open on the south side, 7kts of wind sheer tore it wide open. I just assumed the coc had closed off again due to the convection burst.

Quoting Levi32:
Wow that just made me really happy. Martinique radar just randomly loaded a frame that cued me in to the exact position of 92L's center. Talk about timing....we needed a good center fix. It is west of the big blog as expected, but some showers are actually moving from the west on its south side, indicating it may be closed again.

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Ummmm, yeah, I'd have to agree with Skyepony. Those temps are a bit crazy. Plenty of gas there for 92L.
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Quoting DehSoBe:
92L is just a forerunner for this season. Watch and Wait! I Hate waiting!

Me to
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Well it is the one that blow up suddenly and/or don't do as forecast that do all the damage. I was ready Tuesday but listened to the shear crowd...
I looked earlier and the sat pics were showing a lot of shear which seems to have disappeared..
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1473. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
IKE what about that big wave evere one was jumping on be for i went on my camping trip or the t-storms that was in the gulf what went on with that and did the nhc sayany thing about them in the two?


I think it went WNW to NW and inland.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1472. Drakoen
Quoting Snowlover123:


What does "drakoen" even mean??? I have been pondering over this, but I still can't think of anything...

-Snowlover123


I made it up
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1471. Levi32
Wow that just made me really happy. Martinique radar just randomly loaded a frame that cued me in to the exact position of 92L's center. Talk about timing....we needed a good center fix. It is west of the big blob as expected, but some showers are actually moving from the west on its south side, indicating it may be closed again.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
If this can avoid land, it has a chance to develop. I'm personally hoping it hangs out over D.R. and Cuba so we don't get a Tropical Storm or Hurricane in the Gulf.
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IKE what about that big wave evere one was jumping on be for i went on my camping trip or the t-storms that was in the gulf what went on with that and did the nhc sayany thing about them in the two?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114785
77339---NE side of Houston
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Quoting Snowlover123:
Yea! 92L is back...



Lol, Dr. Masters, saying that this would "disspiate by Friday."

-Snowlover123
Well, it's not quite Friday, but I think we'll still have 92l tomorrow :)
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Quoting zoomiami:
One other thing - the google earth maps are for everybody -- lurkers included. There are many more lurkers than there are posters -- so please don't feel shy!


Thanks so much for doing this, Zoo! I'm a lurker but appreciate your maps.

34436.
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Skyepony mentioned crazy SST west of 60degW. Could someone post a current SST map, please?
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1463. Relix
I didn't pay much attention to the 92L bursts, sure it would die. I'll be honest... this is the first time I can honestly say... this convection is constant and not a burst like previous times. Hopefully I am wrong =P
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I think he made up the word.
I believe his name is Drake.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1461. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
did we evere see 93L when i was gone


Nope.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1460. leo305
radar is showing convection flariing up right on the center so I suspect the blob is trying to erupt over the center..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
did we evere see 93L when i was gone
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114785
Quoting Snowlover123:


What does "drakoen" even mean??? I have been pondering over this, but I still can't think of anything...

-Snowlover123


I think he made up the word.
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1457. xcool
i'm keep an eye on. 92L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
1455. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


DT= 1.5?

did it ever have that before?


yeah it did
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8526
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Lets see if it can maintain itself first...

Dont wanna fall back into the hype just to have it die down again.
Yeah it wouldn't be the first time it happens.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm confused. So we have Drakoen, and now DrakoenG. Any relation?


What does "drakoen" even mean??? I have been pondering over this, but I still can't think of anything...

-Snowlover123
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.