Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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1802. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Last MCC was under 15 knots and flattened like a pancake.....LOL.


Lol, this storm is certainly a renegade.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4453
well txsweetpea it looks like shear will decrease maybe drop by a good amount to cause development to the mount that the models are foreseeing
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13012
1799. Levi32
Quoting SavannahStorm:




Reminds me of "drafting" behind a car. The car in front diverts the flow of air, creating a "dead-air zone" in which there is little wind resistance. 92L is able to withstand the shear as long as it stays in it's bubble.


Good analogy. It's not quite a dead-zone, as satellite loops still show the upper clouds racing eastward just to the right of the MCC, but the wind speeds are likely slower, as you mentioned like they would be behind a car.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
Throughout the season I will be posting definitions of some of the words that are being used that not many are familiar with. Below is the definition of MCC:

mesoscale convective complex—(Abbreviated MCC.) A subset of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) that exhibit a large, circular (as observed by satellite), long-lived, cold cloud shield.
The cold cloud shield must exhibit the following physical characteristics.
# Size: A - Cloud shield with continuously low infrared (IR) temperature ≤ −32°C must have an area ≥ 105 km2; and B - Interior cold cloud region with temperature ≤ −52°C must have an area ≥ 0.5 X 105 km2.
# Initiate: Size definitions A and B are first satisfied
# Duration: Size definitions A and B must be met for a period ≥ 6 h.
# Maximum extent: Contiguous cold cloud shield (IR temperature ≤ −33°C) reaches maximum size.
# Shape: Eccentricity (minor axis/major axis) ≥ 0.7 at time of maximum extent.
# Terminate: Size definitions A and B no longer satisfied.
Alternatively, a dynamical definition of an MCC requires that the system have a Rossby number of order 1 and exhibit a horizontal scale comparable to the Rossby radius of deformation. In midlatitude MCS environments, the Rossby radius of deformation is about 300 km.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1797. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1796. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:


And in high shear, last I checked 50kts right? I can't help but feel the TUTT is actually helping this system's convection.


Last MCC was under 15 knots and flattened like a pancake.....LOL.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
1793. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:
What Levi observed before on the outflow is correct. The image below shows a dry atmosphere to the North, but the system is entraining moisture from its South and West. The unusual feature about this system, is that is really should not be as strong as it appears. How long it can maintain this is anybody's guess. If the hot towers stay longer than 6 hours, it is sometimes an indication of a strengthening system. Only time and the NHC will tell. Interesting system to observe.



Yes, quite unusual. Good points. We're now at 7 hours since the heavy convection got entrenched. We're way ahead of the last MCC from 2 nights ago. How much longer can it go? We'll find out. Likely will be falling apart by morning, but then again when has this system ever followed the rules lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
Quoting Levi32:
For reference, the last MCC convective burst that 92L had back on the night of the 15th lasted for 8 hours, 0z to 8z June 16th, before collapsing. We have already reached 7 hours with this one.


And in high shear, last I checked 50kts right? I can't help but feel the TUTT is actually helping this system's convection.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4453
1790. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
549

WHXX01 KWBC 180034

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0034 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100618 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100618 0000 100618 1200 100619 0000 100619 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 59.3W 16.8N 62.1W 17.4N 64.8W 18.0N 67.6W

BAMD 16.1N 59.3W 16.6N 60.5W 17.2N 61.7W 17.6N 62.8W

BAMM 16.1N 59.3W 16.6N 61.5W 17.2N 63.6W 17.6N 65.7W

LBAR 16.1N 59.3W 16.8N 61.5W 17.5N 63.9W 18.2N 66.6W

SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 23KTS 24KTS

DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 23KTS 24KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100620 0000 100621 0000 100622 0000 100623 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.5N 70.1W 19.4N 75.0W 20.1N 79.2W 20.6N 83.0W

BAMD 17.9N 64.1W 18.9N 66.8W 20.7N 69.3W 22.7N 71.9W

BAMM 17.9N 67.7W 18.6N 71.4W 19.6N 74.5W 20.9N 77.5W

LBAR 18.9N 69.2W 20.9N 73.8W 23.4N 77.0W 25.6N 80.0W

SHIP 26KTS 28KTS 36KTS 48KTS

DSHP 26KTS 25KTS 35KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 59.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 57.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 53.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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1789. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/92/L
MARK
15.9N/57.3W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Quoting Levi32:
Water vapor imagery shows that the MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex) has become strong enough to start influencing the flow aloft. Cloud motions indicate that the strong southwesterly flow coming at 92L is having to partially redirect around the thunderstorm glob and pass to the north and south of it. This is because the thunderstorms are releasing lots of heat into the upper atmosphere, warming it and forming a bubble of high pressure aloft. The effect is not quite as dramatic as depicted in this image, and wind shear remains 30-40 knots over the system, but the flow is being rerouted around a bit.

Also notice that in recent loops the convection is building most rapidly towards the southwest. This is towards an upper ridge which is trying to build into the southeast Caribbean. The convection will be attracted to build towards this area due to good divergence aloft which is associated with upper ridges, as well as the fact that the upper air is warmer in an upper ridge, which promotes upward motion. 92L's MCC is trying to merge its tiny warm air bubble with the ridge's larger bubble to the southwest, and although it will likely fail to do so, you can really see how much it's fighting to hold on here.



Reminds me of "drafting" behind a car. The car in front diverts the flow of air, creating a "dead-air zone" in which there is little wind resistance. 92L is able to withstand the shear as long as it stays in it's bubble.
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1787. centex
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Just typical 50kt sheared system. Does not look like will last long. And I've got some swamp land for sale.
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Okay....Question....is the shear going to stay strong enough to tear 92 L apart or ....what is ahead , as far as conditions for 92 L to develope.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

that's precisely what it is .... it's clearly defined by the outflow. As the air rises it creates lower pressures at the surface and higher pressure in the upper levels.
I know how it works, just wondering if it is the same thing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1784. Levi32
For reference, the last MCC convective burst that 92L had back on the night of the 15th lasted for 8 hours, 0z to 8z June 16th, before collapsing. We have already reached 7 hours with this one.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
1783. Ossqss
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Impressive exchange of energy!
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Im not sure who or why told you otherwise, but that is precisely why the BAM series aee such good shear models. They only look at certain levels.
Oh ok.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So its as if there was an upper level ridge/anticyclone aloft due to the intensity of the MCC?

that's precisely what it is .... it's clearly defined by the outflow. As the air rises it creates lower pressures at the surface and higher pressure in the upper levels.
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1780. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So its as if there was an upper level ridge/anticyclone aloft due to the intensity of the MCC?


Yes, now that it has been sustained for now 7 hours at this intensity, it has released enough latent heat in the upper atmosphere to create high pressure right above the MCC. Not very strong, but there.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's not what I heard.

Im not sure who or why told you otherwise, but that is precisely why the BAM series aee such good shear models. They only look at certain levels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1778. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
Water vapor imagery shows that the MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex) has become strong enough to start influencing the flow aloft. Cloud motions indicate that the strong southwesterly flow coming at 92L is having to partially redirect around the thunderstorm glob and pass to the north and south of it. This is because the thunderstorms are releasing lots of heat into the upper atmosphere, warming it and forming a bubble of high pressure aloft. The effect is not quite as dramatic as depicted in this image, and wind shear remains 30-40 knots over the system, but the flow is being rerouted around a bit.

Also notice that in recent loops the convection is building most rapidly towards the southwest. This is towards an upper ridge which is trying to build into the southeast Caribbean. The convection will be attracted to build towards this area due to good divergence aloft which is associated with upper ridges, as well as the fact that the upper air is warmer in an upper ridge, which promotes convection. 92L's MCC is trying to merge its tiny warm air bubble with the ridge to the southwest, and although it will likely fail to do so, you can really see how much it's fighting to hold on here.



thank you very much for the dummy proof image,
made me see everything clearer :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8748
1777. txjac
Levi, you are awesome tonight ...concise explanations to support the visual aids ...learning a lot from you guys this week. Much thanks
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1776. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Water vapor imagery shows that the MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex) has become strong enough to start influencing the flow aloft. Cloud motions indicate that the strong southwesterly flow coming at 92L is having to partially redirect around the thunderstorm glob and pass to the north and south of it. This is because the thunderstorms are releasing lots of heat into the upper atmosphere, warming it and forming a bubble of high pressure aloft. The effect is not quite as dramatic as depicted in this image, and wind shear remains 30-40 knots over the system, but the flow is being rerouted around a bit.

Also notice that in recent loops the convection is building most rapidly towards the southwest. This is towards an upper ridge which is trying to build into the southeast Caribbean. The convection will be attracted to build towards this area due to good divergence aloft which is associated with upper ridges, as well as the fact that the upper air is warmer in an upper ridge, which promotes convection. 92L's MCC is trying to merge its tiny warm air bubble with the ridge to the southwest, and although it will likely fail to do so, you can really see how much it's fighting to hold on here.

So its as if there was an upper level ridge/anticyclone aloft due to the intensity of the MCC?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Whoaha, I have never seen a sheared system with such impressive convection! This is a first for me, and wow that thing is persistent.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4453
AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13012
1772. Levi32
Water vapor imagery shows that the MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex) has become strong enough to start influencing the flow aloft. Cloud motions indicate that the strong southwesterly flow coming at 92L is having to partially redirect around the thunderstorm glob and pass to the north and south of it. This is because the thunderstorms are releasing lots of heat into the upper atmosphere, warming it and forming a bubble of high pressure aloft. The effect is not quite as dramatic as depicted in this image, and wind shear remains 30-40 knots over the system, but the flow is being rerouted around a bit.

Also notice that in recent loops the convection is building most rapidly towards the southwest. This is towards an upper ridge which is trying to build into the southeast Caribbean. The convection will be attracted to build towards this area due to good divergence aloft which is associated with upper ridges, as well as the fact that the upper air is warmer in an upper ridge, which promotes upward motion. 92L's MCC is trying to merge its tiny warm air bubble with the ridge's larger bubble to the southwest, and although it will likely fail to do so, you can really see how much it's fighting to hold on here.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26741
Quoting SouthALWX:

actually ... the BAMS is shallow through it's whole run .. if a system deepens the BAMS will not change to reflect that therfor you have to use the predicted strength at any given time .. which makes this alot harder, sadly.
That's not what I heard.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting centex:
I've already had two crow meals. The family is complaining. Do I need to go back to store. What do I tell the kids.
"Eat More Chicken"
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One Word: IMPRESSIVE!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh ok. Here's how it works. At the time of the initialization of the model if the system is shallow at that specific time its best to use the BAMS. The same thing applies for the BAMM and BAMD. So even if the system is forecasted to intensify to a deep system but at the time of the initialization of the model the system is shallow its best to use the BAMS. Get it now?

actually ... the BAMS is shallow through its whole run .. if a system deepens the BAMS will not change to reflect that therfor you have to use the predicted strength at any given time .. which makes this alot harder, sadly.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I thought the pacigfic was going to be below average.....
No. I specifically remember you saying yesterday afternoon that the EPAC season was going to be much more active because of the "lingering effects" of the El Niño.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1766. xcool
noway 50k shear
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
Tropical Storm BLAS
11:00 pm EDT National Hurricane Center Advisory: GRAPHICS UPDATE
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1763. centex
I've already had two crow meals. The family is complaining. Do I need to go back to store. What do I tell the kids.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Oh ok. Here's how it works. At the time of the initialization of the model if the system is shallow at that specific time its best to use the BAMS. The same thing applies for the BAMM and BAMD. So even if the system is forecasted to intensify to a deep system but at the time of the initialization of the model the system is shallow its best to use the BAMS. Get it now?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
According to this..


and this...



and this... (^^ Note this also tells us there is only 40 kts of shear, and this is smack in the TUTT north of where 92L is currently

84mb 17700m -77.1C

We are seeing cloud tops that are at the 84 mb level and are 58,000 ft HIGH!
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92L

Wow i dont believe survive 50kts winds shear, but now is reorganized still shear but acording to maps and AMSU report 30kts or less. Vortice is very good so will be a real threat to the Antilles. Last wind analysis 31kts 1010MB.

What happend next?
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1759. 7544
92l wow again if it looks like this now it should take better shape at dmax dont miss this one .
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Quoting Levi32:
02:15....hot towers still a'blazing....noticeable is that the SW side of the convection ball is finally taking on a flatter appearance, which is to be expected in the face of shear.





Looks sort of flat, but according to the loop, it's still expanding to the south and west. I don't think this is the same thing that we saw the other night before it collapsed. Convection seems to still be pushing at the shear.
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1756. xcool
Don't write this one off. At the least it means heavy rains for Puerto Rico Saturday and Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Sunday. If we see extra rains, it would be on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted by davidbernard
HE USED WORK WWLTV IN N.O

Link
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
1755. Patrap
Be sure to check the SST Box

Central Atlantic - JSL Color Infrared Loop


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131960
Ok, time for me to come out of the lurking mode, welcome to the 2010 hurricane season. 92l certainly is showing some serious fight, I checked the sattelite images just prior to the burst of convection and there did appear to be a circulation, perhaps not a true low level, but it is right under and just west of that hot tower right now. Will be watching this system close, pretty impressive, if it stays on a westerly track we might have somthing.
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On water vapor it almost looks like there is a ULL developing NNE of 92L about 100 miles or so.
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Quoting NotCircumventing:


that is just begging for a bannable joke!
LOL, I meant calm.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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