Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1067 - 1017

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index




I may be wrong but, it looks like sheer near 92L is trying to relax some....???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi everyone. Been dealing with a weather related issue for the past three days here. Just as soon as we gave the mechanic the go ahead to fix the car AC for 836 bux...The house AC went kaput. SmileyCentral.com
Another 850 and a week away to get that fixed. It's just too hot to blog. Lol.

I think this explains the future of 92L. Unless they mean another wave.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

LONG TERM...SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WHERE THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL GULF RETURN FLOW
REESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SLT
CHANCE PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. THE BERMUDA RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD SO
THAT MORE WAVES IN THE EASTERLIES COULD ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES NEXT
WEEK. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL CARRY THE REMAINS OF THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE CARRIBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIP
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AROUND FRIDAY. THIS LEAD WAVE SHOULD HELP
WITH OUR RAIN CHANCES STARTING AROUND SUNDAY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1065. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think it is a La Nina lag. Even in active years shear tends to be high until the sub tropical jet lifts to the N and the Bermuda high sets in. This has less to do with El Nino and La Nina as it does with climatology.

The strange thing is that even if we have departure from normal with two or three key elements, such as very high SST and low SAL, any Twave that shows up still has to contend with climatologically high shear. That one constant was enough to do in 92L.

It's kind of like playing cards. If you have a 10, Jack, Queen, King and a 3 you dont have a straight !. All it takes is for one to be missing.

Nice comparison!
Thanks .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think it is a La Nina lag. Even in active years shear tends to be high until the sub tropical jet lifts to the N and the Bermuda high sets in. This has less to do with El Nino and La Nina as it does with climatology.

The strange thing is that even if we have departure from normal with two or three key elements, such as very high SST and low SAL, any Twave that shows up still has to contend with climatologically high shear. That one constant was enough to do in 92L.

It's kind of like playing cards. If you have a 10, Jack, Queen, King and a 3 you dont have a straight !. All it takes is for one to be missing.


Yep, tropical cyclones are fragile systems although they are powerful. They need ALL elements to be right, not just a few, to grow and develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
post #1057 below average? how is that even possible?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I went into that "show" stuff once.
It made no sense to me.
I ignore it, frankly.
I get to see all MY posts. Isn't that cool?


Is it the minus sign that does this? I never hit the minus sign so I guess that it is others who hit it huh? If true then other people are censoring the blog for me? This doesn't seem very fair or friendly. Did everyone here know that if you do not log in that these posts are not shown and there is no way to show them? That is why I created a log in. I was curious and I wanted to find out. If there are knowledgable people in here right now some answers would be nice if possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

True.
But strange that shear seems to be the only thing still following the Climo.
I would have thought that we would see a lessening already, with the early LaNina.
Lag time? Or what??


I don't think it is a La Nina lag. Even in active years shear tends to be high until the sub tropical jet lifts to the N and the Bermuda high sets in. This has less to do with El Nino and La Nina as it does with climatology.

The strange thing is that even if we have departure from normal with two or three key elements, such as very high SST and low SAL, any Twave that shows up still has to contend with climatologically high shear. That one constant was enough to do in 92L.

It's kind of like playing cards. If you have a 10, Jack, Queen, King and a 3 you dont have a straight !. All it takes is for one to be missing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
You and hundreds of other bloggers.... LOL

How was the rain yesterday? Looked like ya'll were in training for a TC....


Not too bad at home - rained a lot at the office though. That's one of the funny things about afternoon rains - it can be monsooning on one side of the street & dry on the other.

How about you? Did you get the rains.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1059. Patrap
Quoting WaterWitch11:
hey everyone,
i just heard a council member from louisiana state that bp owns 20% of the company that is mfgs the dispersant being used in the gulf. i have no idea who he was, he was speaking with billy and anderson on cnn.


John Young Jefferson Parish Council Member
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The NHC has got to be careful too, it would be confusing to declare a tropical cyclone and then take it back later in the post-season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1057. Ossqss
It is interesting how mother nature finds an equilibrium. Very cold winter observed and now some very high SST's in the ATL, while the other basins cool. I still think we need to cheer for shear moving forward.........

It kinda is not fun hoping for no cooling in the Gulf of Guinea so the SAL is not impacted. My thought relates to a month from now. Lower food production is the downer...... thoughts are invited... Climatology ya know......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting johnnyascat:
to further what I'm saying about posts here, #1038 was not shown when SHOW AVERAGE is selected. I manually unhid the post. I see nothing wrong with the post this person made. Why was it instantly rated as below average?
Jascat, I recommend show bad as a setting for the filter because it lets u see all but the genuinely horrible posts. Oh, and the newest bloggers sometimes get hidden too. U must have been around long enough to show up, because I can see u fine. Show average will exclude infrequent posters - some kind of posting ratio / percentage at work, I guess. The other thing that influences how visible u are is whether u have given / received [+] or [-] ratings.

Take a look at the rules of the road for more info....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey there guys. Do we have a good projection map for the new depression in the Pacific yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey everyone,
i just heard a council member from louisiana state that bp owns 20% of the company that is mfgs the dispersant being used in the gulf. i have no idea who he was, he was speaking with billy and anderson on cnn.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

It is going to be a very long and difficult season on this blog if every time the NHC does not upgrade a system the cry of conspiracy goes up.

The simple fact of the matter is that the NHC is charged with the responsibility of making the call based not just upon the technical qualifications of those who work there but the many years of experience they bring to the job.

The really important thing to bear in mind on this blog is the need to try and remain objective and not get carried away with wanting or wishing a system to set the record as the earliest to be classified or the one that is classified the furthest East or any other call for that matter.

Unfortunately, objectivity was sacrificed on the altar of reality with 92L.


Hi Kman, Hope all is well, best post I seen in a long time, I personally thought it might have been a TD, but who am I to argue with those that make the call, like you said they might revisit it after the Season is over or might not , it really doesn't matter, time to move on and be prepared, gotta a feeling come July to September many will be singing a different tune!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1052. pottery
Quoting johnnyascat:
to further what I'm saying about posts here, #1038 was not shown when SHOW AVERAGE is selected. I manually unhid the post. I see nothing wrong with the post this person made. Why was it instantly rated as below average?

I went into that "show" stuff once.
It made no sense to me.
I ignore it, frankly.
I get to see all MY posts. Isn't that cool?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

True.
But strange that shear seems to be the only thing still following the Climo.
I would have thought that we would see a lessening already, with the early LaNina.
Lag time? Or what??


Idk, I thought the shear was actually lower this June. Usually an invest (like 92L) can't develop in the E Atlantic due ot shear, and this time there was upper ridging in the E Atlantic further north than usual (for June) so that reduced shear and enhanced outflow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1050. txjac
Being pretty new to this posting thing here. I lurked and never saw the SHOW box. Made only a couple of posts and they do not even show up as average. This must be a tough place to post then because I see some strange posts made just recently that would rate below avg imo. My guess is that this is a who you know site then?

Johnny ...I'm a seldom poster myself ..there are plenty of knowledgeable people on here that have known each other for a long time ...dont be discouraged
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
The blog has definitely slowed down -- just wait until the next blob appears.

I have to admit that I thought 92L had a pretty good chance of developing.
You and hundreds of other bloggers.... LOL

How was the rain yesterday? Looked like ya'll were in training for a TC....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
to further what I'm saying about posts here, #1038 was not shown when SHOW AVERAGE is selected. I manually unhid the post. I see nothing wrong with the post this person made. Why was it instantly rated as below average?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

iam not cryin kman
in fact iam happy
the way 92 played out
it could have been a whole lot different
if it had become a monster barreling down on northern leewards
my only disappointment is 92l will not get its just regonition it so deserves because it was not a named or numbered system

o and how are ya this evening
my brother from
a different mother


There will be new 92L's before this season ends... and obviously new threats for the northern leewards.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1046. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
It is June and climatology rules


True.
But strange that shear seems to be the only thing still following the Climo.
I would have thought that we would see a lessening already, with the early LaNina.
Lag time? Or what??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not to mention off the SE coast of the US !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW told them all it was nitey nite time.


Quoting PanhandleChuck:
All of the posts are in numerical order with no skips?...... All the kids must've went to bed. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening,

Yep, just like I was saying last night, 92L is a goner.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have posted my daily blog update. Please read and comment. It is greatly appreciated. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Note the Lack-o-shear in the Climo favored Mid June development areas too


The GOM opening up for business and the extreme NW Caribbean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello,

Should I be disappointed that 92L has practically passed unsung, unnamed?

LOL

It was great to have something to watch that presented some suspense, enough to keep the blog hopping for a few days. It was a good "dry run" for the real meat of the season, when things will get pretty hairy in here.

I'm still observing / tracking, since whatever's left of 92L is likely to pass my way in about a week. That's outside the doc's 7-day forecast, so we shall see.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This one is for the folks that don't really know how to spell:

ImageChef.com - Custom comment codes for MySpace, Hi5, Friendster and more
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The blog has definitely slowed down -- just wait until the next blob appears.

I have to admit that I thought 92L had a pretty good chance of developing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

But will be reducing shortly?


Not in the next few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1035. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:
It is June and climatology rules



Note the Lack-o-shear in the Climo favored Mid June development areas too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1034. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


Yeah..I got the Led Zep Swan Song Label for my 21st B-day in El Toro,Cali in Jan 81.

Upper Right arm..


Thinking about a Fluer-de-Lis on my Other now.


Tecate Beer will do dat.


Lordy, Pat!
You gonna look like one of them Bikers, man.
There is a thin line....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is June and climatology rules

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1032. Patrap
NOAA RAAMB EP022010 - Tropical Depression TWO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1031. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


The Westerlies are screaming across the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic. Closed for business for a few days I would think

But will be reducing shortly?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Being pretty new to this posting thing here. I lurked and never saw the SHOW box. Made only a couple of posts and they do not even show up as average. This must be a tough place to post then because I see some strange posts made just recently that would rate below avg imo. My guess is that this is a who you know site then?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Conditions across the Trop. Atl. are more favourable now than last week?


The Westerlies are screaming across the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic. Closed for business for a few days I would think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1028. Patrap
Quoting pottery:

Yeah! Creativity Sux!
heheheh


Yeah..I got the Led Zep Swan Song Label for my 21st B-day in El Toro,Cali in Jan 81.

Upper Right arm..


Thinking about a Fluer-de-Lis on my Other now.


Tecate Beer will do dat.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1027. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


I dont endorse Inked Body Art unless it's above the USMC Summer Service Charlie Short Sleeve Garrison Sleeve,...area.

Preferably a Eagle Globe and Anchor too

Yeah! Creativity Sux!
heheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We are fast getting past the point for activity in the traditional early season areas which are the Caribbean and the GOM.

For now, it looks like quiet time for at least 5 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1025. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:


I dont endorse Inked Body Art unless it's above the USMC Summer Service Charlie Short Sleeve Garrison Sleeve,...area.

Preferably a Eagle Globe and Anchor too


You gonna make me edit that? OK, I am on it :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
stormwW:about 92l possibly saturday night-sunday morning for a few hrs IMO,......their will be plenty to track in the future that will,who knows 92L could suprise us in a few days still....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1022. Patrap
Quoting Ossqss:

Pat made me do it :)



I dont endorse Inked Body Art unless it's above the USMC Summer Service Charlie Short Sleeve Garrison Sleeve,...area.

Preferably a Eagle Globe and Anchor too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1021. pottery
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Those are just dust cluds from elephants sitting on the ground and passing gas. LOL

Damm! That's what I was worried about!
Methane=Global Warming, big time.
But at least, it is the Elephants fault this time.
Whew!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1020. SLU
Quoting StormW:
Ok...on 92L...I just posted the definitions from the NHC glossary...did 92L meet those criteria?


In my humble opinion .. it did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Ok...on 92L...I just posted the definitions from the NHC glossary...did 92L meet those criteria?

That is just a definition. This is not all the criteria. It does not apply values. Very vague for the casually reader just looking for a describition.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:

Pat made me do it :)



LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1017. txjac
Relix gets to keep his hair! No shaving!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1067 - 1017

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
52 °F
Overcast