Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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hey guys that area near S America is now a surface trough on the (00Z) surface map and 92L is now a surface trough



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1166. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow.




Should be a TS in the morning.
I hope that NHC is gonna do the right thing, this time!
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Okay I read over some pages on the blog.I think people are expecting our first or first few storms on june is becuase people were forecasting a hyperactive season.

here are a few exsamples.

1995:A storm formed in june and attained hurricane status.

2003:Thier were 3 storms before july(ana in april)

2005:thier were 2 storms in june.

In the exsamples above those were all hyperactive hurricane seasons.I think we'll see 14.Which is slighty above average.


10 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes is an average Atlantic season.
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1164. Ossqss
Quoting TampaSpin:


BRO those graphics have so much trouble embedded within.....OUCH!


Which way are they moving is the question? and then the question is why? :)

out>>>>>
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Okay I read over some pages on the blog.I think people are expecting our first or first few storms on june is becuase people were forecasting a hyperactive season.

here are a few exsamples.

1995:A storm formed in june and attained hurricane status.

2003:Thier were 3 storms before july(ana in april)

2005:thier were 2 storms in june.

In the exsamples above those were all hyperactive hurricane seasons.I think we'll see 14.Which is slighty above average.


I have truly thought that to myself that JUNE 1st is the start of the Florida rainny season and July 1st the start of the Hurricane Season...just my personal opinion since Climatology so few Hurricanes occur in June.
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1162. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

And you wondered why it was so hot at your house, right?
heheheh


haha! yeah XD
The sea feels a tad warmer than usual too
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1161. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


How is the Revolting going Cantankerous one?

Not very well!
BAH!
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Wow.



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1159. JLPR2
Quoting TampaSpin:


BRO those graphics have so much trouble embedded within.....OUCH!


yeah, I'm a little worried with what could happen in the July-October time frame, a storm in the Caribbean could explode with such SST and TCHP is ridiculous too
-.-
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1158. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:
wow
me and my tracked mind hadn't noticed this
2010:

2005:


That's ridiculous

And you wondered why it was so hot at your house, right?
heheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
wow
me and my tracked mind hadn't noticed this
2010:

2005:


That's ridiculous


BRO those graphics have so much trouble embedded within.....OUCH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156. pottery
Quoting pottery:

LOL, and his subject was a little obscure.
Say wha!

But having said that, several people responded to him, and he seems to have taken objection to them all.
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Well folks I am out for tonight, especially since all is quiet out in the tropics. Have a great evening and will be back tomorrow.

Gnite.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
Quoting pottery:

LOL, and his subject was a little obscure.
Say wha!


How is the Revolting going Cantankerous one?
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1153. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP022010
3:00 AM UTC June 17 2010
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Two (1007 hPa) located at 15.2N 96.6W or 30 NM south of Puerto Angel, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 15.8N 98.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.4N 100.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 17.0N 103.0W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
=====================================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WEST OF ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay I read over some pages on the blog.I think people are expecting our first or first few storms on june is becuase people were forecasting a hyperactive season.

here are a few exsamples.

1995:A storm formed in june and attained hurricane status.

2003:Thier were 3 storms before july(ana in april)

2005:thier were 2 storms in june.

In the exsamples above those were all hyperactive hurricane seasons.I think we'll see 14.Which is slighty above average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
what I find very funny is that the NHC has call that E pac Invest at TD2-E and the 850 vort is very weak and 92L not called TD1 it has way stronger vort and also stacked to 700mg and to some extent 500mb the TD2-E vort goes to 850mb then not stacked beyond at 700mb and 500mb nothing


Vorticity at 850 mb ( 5000 feet ) and above is not the determining factor for classifying a system as a TD. You need a closed surface low, sustained deep convection for at least 12 hours or more over or near the center and winds sufficient to warrant classification. If you have those the vorticity in the mid and upper levels will follow. In many instances there is vorticity at the 850 mb level but nothing at the surface. A tropical cyclone is a package of more than one essential ingredient.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
what I find very funny is that the NHC has call that E pac Invest at TD2-E and the 850 vort is very weak and 92L not called TD1 it has way stronger vort and also stacked to 700mg and to some extent 500mb the TD2-E vort goes to 850mb then not stacked beyond at 700mb and 500mb nothing


For tropical cyclone status,

A) it has to have a warm core (surface cyclonic spin, upper anticyclonic outflow is a warm core structure), and....

B) It has to have a CLOSED surface circulation with winds of at least 30 mph or greater, and has to be persitent at it for some time (don't know how long the NHC waits for persistence).

I don't think the vorticity in between the surface and aloft matters in TC classification.
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1149. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Hmmm. He should try getting an answer when the blog is flying. There are times when I felt invisible !!

LOL, and his subject was a little obscure.
Say wha!
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1148. JLPR2
wow
me and my tracked mind hadn't noticed this
2010:

2005:


That's ridiculous
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Greyelf:


I responded to Johnnyascat's post suggesting that they change their filter to "show all", but my posts probably aren't ranked high enough for them have seen it...LOL...
I also replied, suggesting that he change his filter setting and read the rules of the road, but I guess mine was also ranked too low..... lol

FYI, pple who've been minused a lot in the past are going to show up as below average, regardless of current quality of post. Some pple got to below average by posting too many overly big graphics..... lol If u don't want to deal with censorship, set ur filter to "Show all". That's why the filter's there in the first place - so you can see everything if u want to and I can edit out the "garbage" posts when things get hot in here....

Finally, this site is pretty darned good even without the $10.00 fee. Don't use the membership fee as an excuse not to read and blog......
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1146. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


oh, OOH... I do see with THAT satellite image now the feature at 6N, 41W. Darn, those satllite imagery pages on the NHC website don't go far south enough. Yeah, I think that is the tropical wave that was following behind 92L, it generating some slightly organized convection along the ITCZ. But on satellite, this wave didn't have as nice of a spin to it when it left Africa like 92L did, so probability argues against this developing (IMO, if 92L couldn't develop in that large region of favorable conditions and this feature left Africa not as organized as 92L, chances are it will run out of time to develop like 92L).


Actually this area of vorticity, (gonna call it that since the TW is farther east) has higher TCHP than 92L did, but yeah, I really doubt it will spin, too far south, so if 92L couldn't, this one probably wont be able to either :)

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1145. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
My Fav shear Map..

Das POOF

92L Floater - Water Vapor Loop


Yup, hammer time on that shear, can't touch it :)
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Quoting pottery:

He was concerned that there was some sort of favourtism, or even censorship with the posts.
He went on a bit....


Hmmm. He should try getting an answer when the blog is flying. There are times when I felt invisible !!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
Quoting johnnyascat:
post #1067 is below average, too. When I was reading Jeff Masters blog this past spring I seem to remember both Ossqss and TampaSpin posted regularly. So one explanation given does not seem to fit for these two posters. That leaves me thinking that this really is not a place for me to communicate with others through this post feature. I am inclusive by nature and censorship in any form is disgraceful imo. Especially when the posts have direct meaning to the purpose of this forum.


I am not sure what you are implying as below average....
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1142. xcool



best
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Quoting johnnyascat:
judging from a lack of response to my questions about this forum and from the quick response of other posters to movie quotations of all things I believe I understand the nature of how it goes in here. So I'll take my below average posts somewhere else.


I don't know what the heck y'all are talking about with plus and minus signs and exclamation points! And I do have a log in. I just never use them or the ignore or the hide. I just roll past them!! :-)
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Quoting Greyelf:


I responded to Johnnyascat's post suggesting that they change their filter to "show all", but my posts probably aren't ranked high enough for them have seen it...LOL...


Too funny LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
what I find very funny is that the NHC has call that E pac Invest at TD2-E and the 850 vort is very weak and 92L not called TD1 it has way stronger vort and also stacked to 700mg and to some extent 500mb the TD2-E vort goes to 850mb then not stacked beyond at 700mb and 500mb nothing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, its sort of interesting...






oh, OOH... I do see with THAT satellite image now the feature at 6N, 41W. Darn, those satllite imagery pages on the NHC website don't go far south enough. Yeah, I think that is the tropical wave that was following behind 92L, it generating some slightly organized convection along the ITCZ. But on satellite, this wave didn't have as nice of a spin to it when it left Africa like 92L did, so probability argues against this developing (IMO, if 92L couldn't develop in that large region of favorable conditions and this feature left Africa not as organized as 92L, chances are it will run out of time to develop like 92L).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1136. Patrap
My Fav shear Map..

Das POOF

92L Floater - Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
1135. xcool
tampaSpin :) yep
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1134. Greyelf
Quoting kmanislander:


What was your post, I missed it ?


I responded to Johnnyascat's post suggesting that they change their filter to "show all", but my posts probably aren't ranked high enough for them have seen it...LOL...
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1133. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N32W 6N34W 2N36W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE IN THE
ITCZ
.


therefore the: ''its sort of interesting'' phrase
LOL!
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Quoting xcool:
best shear map .tamp.


Yes it is....it gives the most true picture...NO 40kts but there is 25-30kts.
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1131. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


What was your post, I missed it ?

He was concerned that there was some sort of favourtism, or even censorship with the posts.
He went on a bit....
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Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, its sort of interesting...






...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N32W 6N34W 2N36W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE IN THE
ITCZ
.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Thanks 1093 that is a good explanation.My real question and I hope I am not repeating myself is do we have the climatology to back this up or are we relying on recent satellite and computer computations.Last season was predicted to be average or above if I remember but thankfully end up slow.


Actually, I think last season (if I remember right), NOAA was issuing to be near or below average due to El Nino. I think they lowered their predictions in August from May due to El Nino developing.
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1128. Patrap
EP022010 - Tropical Depression TWO

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
1127. xcool
best shear map .tamp.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
11:00 pm EDT NHC Advisory: GRAPHICS UPDATE
*STORM TRACK:

*ADVISORIES:

*No Projected Path issued for this graphics update.
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1124. JLPR2
Quoting germemiguel:
very interesting 6N 41W ....


yeah, its sort of interesting...




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1123. Ossqss
Quoting johnnyascat:
post #1067 is below average, too. When I was reading Jeff Masters blog this past spring I seem to remember both Ossqss and TampaSpin posted regularly. So one explanation given does not seem to fit for these two posters. That leaves me thinking that this really is not a place for me to communicate with others through this post feature. I am inclusive by nature and censorship in any form is disgraceful imo. Especially when the posts have direct meaning to the purpose of this forum.


You have just as much of a right to post here as anyone else.

This forum confines itself to the rules listed in the Rules of the Road link at the bottom of the page above the text posting window.

I don't think that anyone who has ever participated with a question or reasonably relevant information has been rejected. Just my take, the other fill in info that happens can be different :) I can speak from no other position than mine.

Welcome to the fun! :)
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Quoting johnnyascat:
judging from a lack of response to my questions about this forum and from the quick response of other posters to movie quotations of all things I believe I understand the nature of how it goes in here. So I'll take my below average posts somewhere else.


What was your post, I missed it ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15857
Quoting germemiguel:
very interesting 6N 41W ....


Don't see anything there from a satellite perspective, just ITCZ convection.
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ps I am now thrilled I layed off of the 10 buck cover charge the other day.
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Thanks 1093 that is a good explanation.My real question and I hope I am not repeating myself is do we have the climatology to back this up or are we relying on recent satellite and computer computations.Last season was predicted to be average or above if I remember but thankfully end up slow.
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judging from a lack of response to my questions about this forum and from the quick response of other posters to movie quotations of all things I believe I understand the nature of how it goes in here. So I'll take my below average posts somewhere else.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The map shows the tendency has been falling for the last 24 hours but when it falls to 30 or 40 Knots from values above that it is really academic IMO. Nothing is going to get going in 40 knots.



YEP YEP......we both know that its very hard for anything happen above 20kts.....but ya the sheer is dropping! Will be interesting to see what is left if anything of 92L 850mb Vorticity...when it emerges from the strong Sheer.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.