Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting xcool:
92L WOW


Looks like 92L (or "Karen 2010") is still spinning nicely on IR sat tonight
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
92L was not dead or it came back from the dead LOL
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After reading back through today's blog, one of the posts mentioned an "underwater gas bubble" near the site of the oil spill, so I looked it up...here's what I found.


Two nights ago, on 'Coast to Coast AM' Radio, Richard C. Hoagland, citing insider sources in BP and in U.S. government, said that a gas bubble approximately 15-20 miles across 10+ feet high near the well head of the BP Gulf well had formed and that it may cause a massive explosion within weeks or months. He said that the pressure at the well was 100,000 PSI and that when the gas explodes , it would be like a Mount St. Helen's going off underwater that would create a huge tsunami (tidal wave) that would travel at 400-600 MPH, sink all vessels within miles, drive the oil, hazardous dispersant's, and gasses inland within minutes.

He described Florida may in fact get the brunt of it when it blows though other states would be affected as well and that the people along the gulf had better be told by the U.S. government soon as it is likely that the government will need to evacuate them to protect them from the massive explosion and tsunami as well as the health hazards of the oil, dispersants, and gasses. He was highly critical of Obama down there eating seafood and promising a clean-up, while it should be treated as a war situation. He concurs that with the abiotic possibilities that if this blows that oil could flow forever.

This is another slant on why an evacuation of 40 million people along the Gulf is probably going to happen soon. The Gulf Military Command is giving multiple messages of extremely long length on the interoperability trunking communication system....., perhaps selectively to contain the whole truth within compartments. I also got from a source that the coast guard is now in the process of calling up any former Coast Guard Officers, and seamen ...offering enticements to come back into service quickly. Also actual measurements at Venice, LA., and at New Iberia, LA., are showing health endangering levels of toxic hydrogen sulphides and benzene gases.

This evacuation will have to come soon or millions will most likely die. Then again, when the martial law necessary for this evacuation begins, it is likely to begin the Civil War II in America and will collapse the Banking System and likely much of the Federal, State, and local governmental structures.

Well, chaos is coming perhaps at 400-600 miles per hour.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Karen was dead 3 years ago.


I must be getting old... I assume we are not talking about Karen Carpenter :)

j/k
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Karen was dead 3 years ago.


... but it's obvious that SHE is still haunting the tropical atlantic...
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
1211. xcool
92L WOW
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, it probably is Karen itself! Karen must have circumnavigated the globe and came back into the Atlantic as 92L. Its got the spirit of Karen in it! LOL.


R O F L M A O !!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
See Post # 1172 (or there about's for the original post)


Quoting BahaHurican:
Some good points. But if I can't see ur post, I prolly have u on ignore to begin with. I don't see why anybody should be forced to read any particular blogger's post "just because". OTOH, I did earlier this month suggest that pple be a bit less gratuitous in their posting during the height of the season, i.e. only posting when you have something to ADD. Of course, I don't expect to see that. Unfortunately, to a certain extent that is the nature of blogging. And there are options, like hanging out in another blog besides Doc Masters' ....

I'm really gone now!

Good point on the ignore, and I wish people would use it more often to it's extent in which it was put into place. It is true that, especially on this blog, the data and the question you have is likely right in front of you! and people should look around more then post repeatedly. Although, part of that is human nature and I don't think there is much ado about it except point people in the right direction, which, in a double edged sword, makes more posts.

Quoting pottery:

I take your point.
But I have found that even with 'show all' it is possible to read and digest MOST of the posts even when the blog is flying.
If I see a post that interests me, I respond to it, and more often than not, the poster will respond to that.
So it is always possible to have debate, although one has to be careful not to distract someone from a debate they may be already having.


While this may happen to you, unforunatly this has not happend to me, and you will likly not be able to come August and September because your post will be 2 pages ahead of the post you last had the conversation with. :(

Quoting txjac:
weathersp, didn't sound like a rant to me, quite intelligent post as to how you see it.

Actually I find this place a little intimidating sometimes as there are so many knowledgeable and respected people here. I do understand that there are many here that have been posting between each other for years as well. When the little "arguments" between members break out it gets uncomfortable


Well, I learned the hard way (and through 4 years of blogging here) that you have to tread lightly and even more so recently. While I agree this place is a great resource to learn and find links and images to help yourself find information to make your own decisions. Those decisions and thoughts that people re-post is what getting the ball rolling down the hill of hesitation and back-lash. Then it gets uncomfortable.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


WHAT!!! Wasn't it dead ?? Karen-like remains for sure


LOL, it probably is Karen itself! Karen must have circumnavigated the globe and came back into the Atlantic as 92L. Its got the spirit of Karen in it! LOL.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


lol I was on the verge of shooting me!!


I'm exagerating a lil'bit :)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB


WHAT!!! Wasn't it dead ?? Karen-like remains for sure
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
1204. xcool
lmao.
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Quoting xcool:
oh yeah 2006 too.


lol I was on the verge of shooting me!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB
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Quoting weathersp:


/rant (don't read it if you don't want to)

I think that is one of the downfalls of this blog, back 2-3 years ago you could actually hold a reasonable scientific argument about something, now I think it is more of a running commentary with a few respected posters.

I also feel that people who are good, and have good idea's and experience get shot down or not post not read because there are so many that have heightened opinions and there is no distinguishment like how long has he/she been a member or a special title if they are in met school (like me in August) or a degree in meteorology.

Now, so far this year it's not to bad yet but come July I can tell you that this place will be posts flying everywhere, and discussions will not be possible, only images and the respected poster will come through, leaving everyone else who have valid thoughts(meaning w/data) or questions in the dust. And if you can't see this post, well, my opinion isn't being heard is it then?



Great point but, don't underestimate the bloggers that use there own blogs for people to convey. I do use the main blog often....but, i also blog with other bloggers in their own blogs....its true therapy most often..
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Quoting CaribBoy:


also.. 2006 bored... and 2008 good. lol
Not if lived in Galveston!
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Quoting xcool:
. CaribBoy.... hell yeah 2009 bored ,2007 not bad.


You know sometimes when its a busy season, there's too much going on to keep up with. The best kind of season is to have fish storms which are good to study. To me, an average season with a good amount of fish storms is good. Its depressing to see a strong storm hit land.
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1197. Greyelf
Quoting johnnyascat:
This is an interesting forum application. when I logged out, I can see them. Do any of you find it interesting too?


Funny that...quick to spew "conspiracy theory" but hadn't even considered "operator error".

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1196. xcool
oh yeah 2006 too.
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Quoting xcool:
. CaribBoy.... hell yeah 2009 bored ,2007 not bad.


also.. 2006 bored... and 2008 good. lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
In response to the above conversation:
I have to wonder if the reigns need to be tightened here to some degree with maybe a tag at the top of the blog specifying what "mode" the blog is in ... a step ladder from days like now where we could talk about underwater basket weaving ... to major hurricanes threatening and posts being much more organized.
I bring this up in addition to a new idea. We already have a tropics chat but that can be a bit ... buggy at times.
What if we had a mirror blog? that was less strict and one that was more strict? Just ideas. There are many ways to remedy the problems... and with the popularity here something will have to be done quickly before we crash WU .. again ..
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1193. xcool
. CaribBoy.... hell yeah 2009 bored ,2007 not bad.
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Speaking of warm sst, i was out on one of the islands in the gulf near key west last weekend & took water temp, it showed 90, in 6' of water, almost too hot to enjoy or cool offf in,
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Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, that's why I said July-October time frame, when the shear is low in that area


Yep
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
This is an interesting forum application. No sooner than I bring up the points I made about legitimate posts being censored, and suddenly when I logged out, I can see them. Do any of you find it interesting too?
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1188. txjac
weathersp, didn't sound like a rant to me, quite intelligent post as to how you see it.

Actually I find this place a little intimidating sometimes as there are so many knowledgeable and respected people here. I do understand that there are many here that have been posting between each other for years as well. When the little "arguements" between members break out it gets uncomfortable
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
You qouted me two times.

Yeah, I think that I accidentally clicked quote twice, anyway it's fixed now.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Notice I said Slightly above average.


Whoops, I am sorry. After that mistake, I will be slowing down how fast I read through the posts.
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Quoting xcool:
hope this season becomes more interesting than the last one.



2009 : SO BORING!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
1184. xcool
JLPR2 haha.,
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1183. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
hope this season becomes more interesting than the last one.



I'm actually not looking forward to that xD
LOL!
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1182. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


Not within strong shear. (i.e that poor 92L)


yeah, that's why I said July-October time frame, when the shear is low in that area
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1181. pottery
Quoting weathersp:


/rant (don't read it if you don't want to)

I think that is one of the downfalls of this blog, back 2-3 years ago you could actually hold a reasonable scientific argument about something, now I think it is more of a running commentary with a few respected posters.

I also feel that people who are good, and have good idea's and experience get shot down or not post not read because there are so many that have heightened opinions and there is no distinguishment like how long has he/she been a member or a special title if they are in met school (like me in August) or a degree in meteorology.

Now, so far this year it's not to bad yet but come July I can tell you that this place will be posts flying everywhere, and discussions will not be possible, only images and the respected poster will come through, leaving everyone else who have valid thoughts(meaning w/data) or questions in the dust. And if you can't see this post, well, my opinion isn't being heard is it then?

I take your point.
But I have found that even with 'show all' it is possible to read and digest MOST of the posts even when the blog is flying.
If I see a post that interests me, I respond to it, and more often than not, the poster will respond to that.
So it is always possible to have debate, although one has to be careful not to distract someone from a debate they may be already having.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1180. xcool
hope this season becomes more interesting than the last one.

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Quoting weathersp:


/rant (don't read it if you don't want to)

I think that is one of the downfalls of this blog, back 2-3 years ago you could actually hold a reasonable scientific argument about something, now I think it is more of a running commentary with a few respected posters.

I also feel that people who are good, and have good idea's and experience get shot down or not post not read because there are so many that have heightened opinions and there is no distinguishment like how long has he/she been a member or a special title if they are in met school (like me in August) or a degree in meteorology.

Now, so far this year it's not to bad yet but come July I can tell you that this place will be posts flying everywhere, and discussions will not be possible, only images and the respected poster will come through, leaving everyone else who have valid thoughts(meaning w/data) or questions in the dust. And if you can't see this post, well, my opinion isn't being heard is it then?
Some good points. But if I can't see ur post, I prolly have u on ignore to begin with. I don't see why anybody should be forced to read any particular blogger's post "just because". OTOH, I did earlier this month suggest that pple be a bit less gratuitous in their posting during the height of the season, i.e. only posting when you have something to ADD. Of course, I don't expect to see that. Unfortunately, to a certain extent that is the nature of blogging. And there are options, like hanging out in another blog besides Doc Masters' ....

I'm really gone now!
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Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, I'm a little worried with what could happen in the July-October time frame, a storm in the Caribbean could explode with such SST and TCHP is ridiculous too
-.-


Not within strong shear. (i.e that poor 92L)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys that area near S America is now a surface trough on the (00Z) surface map and 92L is now a surface trough





You know sometimes, the NHC surface analyses are strange to me. Their tropical waves are consitent from update to update, sometimes they draw what seem to me randoms surface troughs. Are there buoys there telling them there is a low area of surface pressure in that spot?

I think the area at 6N, 41W is due to the wave. The way I see it, it can enhance the ITCZ ahead of itself as surface flow is northeasterly heading into the ITCZ to the west of the wave axis. The winds heading INTO the ITCZ can enhance convection due to increasing surface convergence there.
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Quoting JLPR2:
wow
me and my tracked mind hadn't noticed this
2010:

2005:


That's ridiculous


Oh My...
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
1173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting johnnyascat:


Is it the minus sign that does this? I never hit the minus sign so I guess that it is others who hit it huh? If true then other people are censoring the blog for me? This doesn't seem very fair or friendly. Did everyone here know that if you do not log in that these posts are not shown and there is no way to show them? That is why I created a log in. I was curious and I wanted to find out. If there are knowledgable people in here right now some answers would be nice if possible.


yes the forum has a bias
wherefore if other members find you upsetting in some way
they can minus you
some may even try to establish a group minusing
if its a real issue
orders can be given
you just simply
won't be here anymore
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52248
Quoting kmanislander:


Hmmm. He should try getting an answer when the blog is flying. There are times when I felt invisible !!


/rant (don't read it if you don't want to)

I think that is one of the downfalls of this blog, back 2-3 years ago you could actually hold a reasonable scientific argument about something, now I think it is more of a running commentary with a few respected posters.

I also feel that people who are good, and have good idea's and experience get shot down or not post not read because there are so many that have heightened opinions and there is no distinguishment like how long has he/she been a member or a special title if they are in met school (like me in August) or a degree in meteorology.

Now, so far this year it's not to bad yet but come July I can tell you that this place will be posts flying everywhere, and discussions will not be possible, only images and the respected poster will come through, leaving everyone else who have valid thoughts(meaning w/data) or questions in the dust. And if you can't see this post, well, my opinion isn't being heard is it then?
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Okay I read over some pages on the blog.I think people are expecting our first or first few storms on june is becuase people were forecasting a hyperactive season.

here are a few exsamples.

1995:A storm formed in june and attained hurricane status.

2003:Thier were 3 storms before july(ana in april)

2005:thier were 2 storms in june.

In the exsamples above those were all hyperactive hurricane seasons.I think we'll see 14.Which is slighty above average.

The 2004 season is considered a hyperactive and we didn't see the first named storm till July 31. That just goes to show that each season is different, no season is exactly the same.
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1170. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys that area near S America is now a surface trough on the (00Z) surface map and 92L is now a surface trough





I knew there had to be something there, the TW was way to the east of it XD
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1046 b> "...strange that shear seems to be the only thing still following the Climo."

Increased sheer is what suppresses the number of named storms under the GlobalWarming scenario. Landsea and Emanuel had a bit of a fracas about it -- with Emanuel conceding Landsea's point -- leaving behind a general consensus of fewer tropical cyclones overall, with more powerful hurricanes both in percentage and in intensity.
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Quoting pottery:

Should be a TS in the morning.
I hope that NHC is gonna do the right thing, this time!
LOL

G'nite, all. Will look in early in the a.m.
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hey guys that area near S America is now a surface trough on the (00Z) surface map and 92L is now a surface trough



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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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