Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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There are a few good articles on a site called "Global Research.ca" about the oil spill.
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1264. txjac
Tampa, we must have been watching at the same time as I saw them checking out the ocean floor as well ...and also so them checking pressure gauges too. I'm sure that both these tasks are something that they normally have to do ...that is when they take a break from the "disperstant operations"

jo
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1263. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TampaSpin:


There is some truth to this story......i was watching the ROV's the other day and YES they was inspecting the Ocean bottom. What they showed and was looking at was Cracks from the Ocean Bottom that was seeping Oil. I did see this myself the other day. So, i do know that to be true. What i don't know is if that is common or not......I don't know....but, the ROV's sure the heck was showing this.
i was watchin ROV's as well and i seen what looked like oil coming from cracks hmmmmm

ultimate pay back by mom nature blow a hole in the earth and fill the ocean full of oil how ironic if true
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Sure. I wouldn't doubt a malfunction. This is the only local one I could get a water temp on. I guess they've been damaged by all the storms these past years. But can't really say. I never looked at them before 2008.

Link


One in the middle gulf is 85.1 so it is possible...
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Yeah, well that's Richard C. Hoagland. If I had a nickle for every whacko tale he has told, I'd be rich. Rx for Hoagland: very LARGE grain of salt.


LOL! Still makes me consider sleeping with my swim floaties on. J/K
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Richard Charles Hoagland,[1] most commonly known as Richard C. Hoagland, (born April 25, 1945) is an American author and a proponent of various conspiracy theories about NASA, lost alien civilizations on the Moon and on Mars and other related topics. Claims from his personal biography[2] and publication[3] include having been curator for a science museum in Springfield Massachusetts at age 19 in the mid-60s.[4] Hoagland does not have any scientific training.

Please read on about Richard C. Hoagland if you dare
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Just noticed the water temp is the only reading from this buoy on Bolivar. So yep I guess it's damage from the storms.

Conditions at RLOT2 as of
(10:00 pm CDT on 06/16/2010)
0300 GMT on 06/17/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.5 °F
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Quoting 850Realtor:
After reading back through today's blog, one of the posts mentioned an "underwater gas bubble" near the site of the oil spill, so I looked it up...here's what I found.


Two nights ago, on 'Coast to Coast AM' Radio, Richard C. Hoagland, citing insider sources in BP and in U.S. government, said that a gas bubble approximately 15-20 miles across 10+ feet high near the well head of the BP Gulf well had formed and that it may cause a massive explosion within weeks or months. He said that the pressure at the well was 100,000 PSI and that when the gas explodes , it would be like a Mount St. Helen's going off underwater that would create a huge tsunami (tidal wave) that would travel at 400-600 MPH, sink all vessels within miles, drive the oil, hazardous dispersant's, and gasses inland within minutes.

He described Florida may in fact get the brunt of it when it blows though other states would be affected as well and that the people along the gulf had better be told by the U.S. government soon as it is likely that the government will need to evacuate them to protect them from the massive explosion and tsunami as well as the health hazards of the oil, dispersants, and gasses. He was highly critical of Obama down there eating seafood and promising a clean-up, while it should be treated as a war situation. He concurs that with the abiotic possibilities that if this blows that oil could flow forever.

This is another slant on why an evacuation of 40 million people along the Gulf is probably going to happen soon. The Gulf Military Command is giving multiple messages of extremely long length on the interoperability trunking communication system....., perhaps selectively to contain the whole truth within compartments. I also got from a source that the coast guard is now in the process of calling up any former Coast Guard Officers, and seamen ...offering enticements to come back into service quickly. Also actual measurements at Venice, LA., and at New Iberia, LA., are showing health endangering levels of toxic hydrogen sulphides and benzene gases.

This evacuation will have to come soon or millions will most likely die. Then again, when the martial law necessary for this evacuation begins, it is likely to begin the Civil War II in America and will collapse the Banking System and likely much of the Federal, State, and local governmental structures.

Well, chaos is coming perhaps at 400-600 miles per hour.


Yeah, well that's Richard C. Hoagland. If I had a nickle for every whacko tale he has told, I'd be rich. Rx for Hoagland: very LARGE grain of salt.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


There is some truth to this story......i was watching the ROV's the other day and YES they was inspecting the Ocean bottom. What they showed and was looking at was Cracks from the Ocean Bottom that was seeping Oil. I did see this myself the other day. So, i do know that to be true. What i don't know is if that is common or not......I don't know....but, the ROV's sure the heck was showing this.


Thats very scary considering that not only I live on on the Gulf Coast...But I'm below sea level!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, now that was funny.
Best analogy I could think of. Didn't they mention awhile back that they had difficulty with methane gas building up and causing ice crystals. I saw several reports citing that there could be possible damage some 1000 feet below the sea bed. If the well, or casing is damaged then oil will start seeping out into the sea bed and eventually working its way up to the surface.
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oh and mel's hole.
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1253. Relix
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
sorry forgot the sat





Why won't you just... DIE!
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Quoting weathersp:


Not to say thats insane, but notice the air and water temperature is exactly the same.. Mabye it's a station malfuction? Can you give the link for the station so if we can see they are correleated beyond this one observation?


Sure. I wouldn't doubt a malfunction. This is the only local one I could get a water temp on. I guess they've been damaged by all the storms these past years. But can't really say. I never looked at them before 2008.

Link
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I assume he is looking at this article

In all due respects... This has become so political... the Dems and Rep would be trying to cut the others throats trying to leak the whole story. If it were true.


There is some truth to this story......i was watching the ROV's the other day and YES they was inspecting the Ocean bottom. What they showed and was looking at was Cracks from the Ocean Bottom that was seeping Oil. I did see this myself the other day. So, i do know that to be true. What i don't know is if that is common or not......I don't know....but, the ROV's sure the heck was showing this.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
An "underwater gas bubble" might not be that "far fetched" although the extent of magnitude of a possible explosion would be difficult to measure.

Look at the what happens when one farts in a bathtub!


Ok, now that was funny.
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Orca the Obama's new world order aspirations would be squashed along with all the others involved with this and the consolidation of the world bank and the implementation of the one world currency. So in short no one in power would talk about this in public however during the next Bildeburg conference this will certainly be talked about et nausium as well as planning when the next financial crisis will ensue in the coming decades.
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1247. txjac
850Realtor

Nothing to be sorry for, it is very interesting. We will never really know what is going on down there. And the president's speech last night didnt make me feel much better
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sorry forgot the sat



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An "underwater gas bubble" might not be that "far fetched" although the extent of magnitude of a possible explosion would be difficult to measure.

Look at the what happens when one farts in a bathtub!
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Quoting homelesswanderer:



5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.3 F


Thats crazy, whenever you have water temps that are over surface temps, thermodynamics are against the water... where is this?
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hmm looking on the floater 92L has been tring to fire up some convection near the center at 15.1N 53.7W and just north of it as well but you can see that shear is hampering this convection to redevelop in large amounts like last night but any shear is expected to lower so let us see what happens boy I was right when I said 92L beast all odds now I am changing it a little 92L is starting to show that it could beat the odds
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
How can anyone enjoy going to the beach in the carribean,and gulf when water tempetuers are above average.


That has been the question for many years around here. Even before I knew the importance of those high SSTS. This is from one of the semi-working buoys still left around here.

Conditions at SBPT2 as of
(10:36 pm CDT on 06/16/2010)
0336 GMT on 06/17/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 8.0 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.3 °F
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Where did you find this info at....Please reference your findings......thanks.


All I did was Google, Gas Bubble Gulf.

Quoting pottery:

There are far more probable myths to research, than this one.
But, Whatever turns you on.....
Good night all.


I'm sure there are, however this one was previously posted today with only part of the story. There are far less important things posted throughout the blog all day, every day. Sorry for the inconvenience.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Where did you find this info at....Please reference your findings......thanks.


I assume he is looking at this article

In all due respects... This has become so political... the Dems and Rep would be trying to cut the others throats trying to leak the whole story. If it were true.
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1237. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:


haha!
Your hair is safe XD


Watch it become a tropical storm just 70 miles SE of PR =P
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Where did you find this info at....Please reference your findings......thanks.


It was on Coast to Coast radio few nights ago. I heard the whole thing. The guy sounded very anxious and nervous when explaining it. I think you can get the podcast on coast to coast's site.
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Quoting 850Realtor:
After reading back through today's blog, one of the posts mentioned an "underwater gas bubble" near the site of the oil spill, so I looked it up...here's what I found.


Conspiracy theory's these days...
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
How can anyone enjoy going to the beach in the carribean,and gulf when water tempetuers are above average.
In 2004 & 2005 when we had high sst's in the keys we also had a large outbreak of unusual algaes growing on & suffocating the corals, our waters are hotter this year than in both those years, i expect we will see our reef & corals to be effected even more
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1233. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
You guys just made me check the floater to see if it came back with a burst of convection. Thankfully no =P


haha!
Your hair is safe XD
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
How can anyone enjoy going to the beach in the carribean,and gulf when water tempetuers are above average.


Really? Have you ever been South to the water? Temp doesn't matter, it's wonderful. Scratch that, was wonderful...until BP fouled it up!
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1231. Relix
You guys just made me check the floater to see if it came back with a burst of convection. Thankfully no =P
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1230. pottery
Quoting txjac:
850 realator ...OMG, now I will have to research this. I have not had good feelings at all about all this mess

There are far more probable myths to research, than this one.
But, Whatever turns you on.....
Good night all.
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Quoting 850Realtor:


Who the heck knows what's really going on out there. Saw the earlier post by someone and it caught my attention. Hoax or not, it's enough to catch your attention if you live on the Gulf Coast.


Where did you find this info at....Please reference your findings......thanks.
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1228. txjac
And I just looked and he's a conspiracy guy ...
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Quoting txjac:
850 realator ...OMG, now I will have to research this. I have not had good feelings at all about all this mess


Who the heck knows what's really going on out there. Saw the earlier post by someone and it caught my attention. Hoax or not, it's enough to catch your attention if you live on the Gulf Coast.
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1225. txjac
850 realator ...OMG, now I will have to research this. I have not had good feelings at all about all this mess
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Quoting Orcasystems:
1214. 850Realtor 3:50 AM GMT on June 17, 2010

Let me guess, the little green men did it?


No the anunaki and the children of the corn did.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
1214. 850Realtor 3:50 AM GMT on June 17, 2010

Let me guess, the little green men did it?


Did what?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Some good points. But if I can't see ur post, I prolly have u on ignore to begin with. I don't see why anybody should be forced to read any particular blogger's post "just because". OTOH, I did earlier this month suggest that pple be a bit less gratuitous in their posting during the height of the season, i.e. only posting when you have something to ADD. Of course, I don't expect to see that. Unfortunately, to a certain extent that is the nature of blogging. And there are options, like hanging out in another blog besides Doc Masters' ....

I'm really gone now!


I was doing good I was watching videos on Itunes instead of spending all my time on this blog. But then...The video had a big giant purple dinosaur head in it and I was dragged right back. Reference to a fellow blogger's avatar in case you don't know. Because usually purple dinosaurs do not remind me of the weather. Well most of the time not. Lol.
"Every time I think I'm out they pull me back in."
SmileyCentral.com

Lol. Sorry y'all. I think the heats getting to me.
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My bed is asking for me. Have a great night everyone.
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1214. 850Realtor 3:50 AM GMT on June 17, 2010

Let me guess, the little green men did it?
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1219. xcool
92L NOT TRY DIE
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Quoting xcool:
92L WOW


Looks like 92L (or "Karen 2010") is still spinning nicely on IR sat tonight
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.