Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting szqrn1:


oh wow you just said about what I was asking tampaspin about!! weird!


LOL! We've been discussing it, read back about a hundred posts. Think it started around #1214.
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92L, a couple of showers and 1 thunderstorm.

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1315. szqrn1
Quoting 850Realtor:


The story/conspiracy theory about the gas bubble said 100,000 psi...

"A gas bubble approximately 15-20 miles across 10+ feet high near the well head of the BP Gulf well had formed and that it may cause a massive explosion within weeks or months. He said that the pressure at the well was 100,000 PSI and that when the gas explodes , it would be like a Mount St. Helen's going off underwater that would create a huge tsunami (tidal wave) that would travel at 400-600 MPH, sink all vessels within miles, drive the oil, hazardous dispersant's, and gasses inland within minutes".



oh wow you just said about what I was asking tampaspin about!! weird!
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Quoting johnnyascat:
With my filter set to SHOW AVERAGE, these are the posters who are censored shut in today's forum post by Jeff Masters. These posters have been deemed below average posters and filter censored at the average level.


TampaSpin
Ossqss
Baltimorebirds
AllBoardedUp
CaneWarning
HaboobsRsweet
jrweatherman
RecordSeason
sebastianflorida
YourCommonSense
btwntx08
debbykat
DEKRE
scott39
all4hurricanes
mfaria101
SQUAWK
kanc2001
hurricanejunky
alpharenz
JRRP
CaribBoy
Gustavike
StormGoddess
jasoniscoolman09
SunnyDaysFla
stormpetrol
PolishHurrMaster
amd
scottsvb
LoneStarWeather
TropicalNonsense
hamla
Vortex16
islandsweather
kmanhurricaneman
WINDSMURF
extreme236
hercj
helove2trac
CyclonicVoyage
CodaFlow

Yet, there are uncensored posters deemed average or above who spout out all kinds of jibberjabber. one of the people on this list is cool with being censored out of average. I'm wondering if the rest of these people are also? I can see my posts because I'm logged in but I'm pretty sure I am on this list. the show all filter is unimportant to me. it is the fact that I have made practically no posts in here and I'm censored out. raise your hand if you agree, but if you are on this list I will not see you because my filter is set to average. It defaults that way when you first join this forum.
Darn, I'm below average! Must be the ADD/ADHD. Time to take some Meds!
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1313. txjac
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Hitchcock, 30 miles south of you.


hey there neighbor!
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ur okay with it, but I am not. it really makes me sick to my stomach. if you make outrageous posts, then you should be banned. but if you are making intelligent thoughtful posts and you are censored as below average then that is just plain wrong wrong wrong. and if you fine people who are not censored do not agree with me then I really know Im in the wrong part of the world here.
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1311. szqrn1
Quoting TampaSpin:


Susan yes i did and thank you very much.....i really appreaciated what you did....Many others followed you and i got email from many....THANKS! YOU ARE AWSOME!


talking about the one about the oil spill and the hole and pressure equalization.. water and steam and tsunami and coastal devistation... that one... what'd you think?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't doubt there is seepage, but its not a gas bubble at 1000+ psi.


The story/conspiracy theory about the gas bubble said 100,000 psi...

"A gas bubble approximately 15-20 miles across 10+ feet high near the well head of the BP Gulf well had formed and that it may cause a massive explosion within weeks or months. He said that the pressure at the well was 100,000 PSI and that when the gas explodes , it would be like a Mount St. Helen's going off underwater that would create a huge tsunami (tidal wave) that would travel at 400-600 MPH, sink all vessels within miles, drive the oil, hazardous dispersant's, and gasses inland within minutes".

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Quoting szqrn1:
tim.. did u read my email i sent you ?


Susan yes i did and thank you very much.....i really appreaciated what you did....Many others followed you and i got email from many....THANKS! YOU ARE AWSOME!
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1308. szqrn1
hey Tim.. did you get a chance to read the email I sent you?
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Quoting txjac:
allboardedup...like the name

I'm in Houston ..how about you
Hitchcock, 30 miles south of you.
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Quoting johnnyascat:
i am fully aware now what is causing it. it is a penalty phase. instead of banning you, they instead just make it to where no one can see your post.


It does not bug me one bit.....i know the people that do that.....it makes know difference to me when the groupies convey in one blog to do that.......i have seen the post talking about it.......ITS REALLY OK!
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I profess I don't know much about Geology put if there wasn't natural boundaries in rock layers how could we have fresh water.
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Done for the night... have fun.
Updated the latest tracks and weather.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1303. szqrn1
tim.. did u read my email i sent you ?
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i am fully aware now what is causing it. it is a penalty phase. instead of banning you, they instead just make it to where no one can see your post.
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Lastly just guessing don't know the length of drill pipe involved but must be cracks in the first couple of lengths below the surface hopefully this is why the best they can say is 90% containment.
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1300. JLPR2
1295. johnnyascat 1:05 AM AST on June 17, 2010

I'm visible? XD
That's good to know, I guess, but there are some bloggers in there that should be visible. -.-
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1299. Seastep
1295. johnnyascat

It's not Doc.

It's the people that hit the "-."

It's automated.
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1298. txjac
allboardedup...like the name

I'm in Houston ..how about you
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got a ton of rain in the last 6 hrs or so. according to the nexrad estimates, i got over 6 inches of rain here, and just to the south of me, they got over 8 inches of rain in the same time

Link
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1296. Seastep
Quoting gordydunnot:
Seastep sometimes I am dumbfounded do you really believe that oil that is 15,000 feet below the ground seeps out naturally.


Doesn't it? Or are you saying that it seeps out naturally at lesser depth (less pressure) but not greater depths?

That doesn't seem logical.
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With my filter set to SHOW AVERAGE, these are the posters who are censored shut in today's forum post by Jeff Masters. These posters have been deemed below average posters and filter censored at the average level.


TampaSpin
Ossqss
Baltimorebirds
AllBoardedUp
CaneWarning
HaboobsRsweet
jrweatherman
RecordSeason
sebastianflorida
YourCommonSense
btwntx08
debbykat
DEKRE
scott39
all4hurricanes
mfaria101
SQUAWK
kanc2001
hurricanejunky
alpharenz
JRRP
CaribBoy
Gustavike
StormGoddess
jasoniscoolman09
SunnyDaysFla
stormpetrol
PolishHurrMaster
amd
scottsvb
LoneStarWeather
TropicalNonsense
hamla
Vortex16
islandsweather
kmanhurricaneman
WINDSMURF
extreme236
hercj
helove2trac
CyclonicVoyage
CodaFlow

Yet, there are uncensored posters deemed average or above who spout out all kinds of jibberjabber. one of the people on this list is cool with being censored out of average. I'm wondering if the rest of these people are also? I can see my posts because I'm logged in but I'm pretty sure I am on this list. the show all filter is unimportant to me. it is the fact that I have made practically no posts in here and I'm censored out. raise your hand if you agree, but if you are on this list I will not see you because my filter is set to average. It defaults that way when you first join this forum.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1294. Seastep
Goodnight. Really just popped on to check things out.

Wish we had had those skimmers all over the place quite a while ago and hope we actually do get them, finally. Still a no-go at this point.
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1292. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


Watch it become a tropical storm just 70 miles SE of PR =P


Now that would be very inconvenient for you
XD
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Seastep sometimes I am dumbfounded do you really believe that oil that is 15,000 feet below the ground seeps out naturally.
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1290. Seastep
Quoting weathersp:


Yup, over large areas above the oil area oil does seep naturally because of the natural pressure that the mantle puts on the oil and drilling does provide a outlet for that pressure. However in this case, if the oil from the well and the ground is seeping, that's a bit concerning in terms of the pressures at work here.


True. Why I think the relief wells will be the ultimate cure. Sucks to have to wait, but have to deal with the reality of the situation and act accordingly.

Why we should have skimmers all over the place... including foreign vessels.
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WATCH THIS VIDEO........THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WAS WATCHING.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Well your wrong.....sorry.....What was very visible was seeps of Oil coming up.....it was very easy to see.....


I don't doubt there is seepage, but its not a gas bubble at 1000+ psi.
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Quoting Seastep:


This is normal. Oil naturally seeps continually.

Actually, drilling relieves the pressure and reduces the natural seepage.

Here's a link about it out in CA. Drilling actually decreases the natural seepage of oil.

Link


Yup, over large areas above the oil area oil does seep naturally because of the natural pressure that the mantle puts on the oil and drilling does provide a outlet for that pressure. However in this case, if the oil from the well and the ground is seeping, that's a bit concerning in terms of the pressures at work here.
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Here is the longer video, didn't realize the last one was so short.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2RxIQP0IBU
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Come on guys... 1000 or 10,000 psi does not give a "poof" of Oil. It gives a massive stream of High pressure gas... which rises to the surface really really fast.


Well your wrong.....sorry.....What was very visible was seeps of Oil coming up.....it was very easy to see.....
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1283. Seastep
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i was watchin ROV's as well and i seen what looked like oil coming from cracks hmmmmm

ultimate pay back by mom nature blow a hole in the earth and fill the ocean full of oil how ironic if true


This is normal. Oil naturally seeps continually.

Actually, drilling relieves the pressure and reduces the natural seepage.

Here's a link about it out in CA. Ironically, drilling actually decreases the natural seepage of oil.

Link
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Quoting 850Realtor:


I saw it also and couldn't believe my eyes. It wasn't gushing out, but every few seconds there was a poof of oil or something.


You have to realise that the oil pocket is very far down into the earth, I think that this one may be deep enough that the earth's mantle is/was heating this chamber for many millions of years, once punctured by this well it now has a release. The pipe will stay in tact beacuse it is drilled through the rock and the rock is its structural support, the only reason if what your seeing is true is a weak spot in the rock/seafloor near the seafloor and the pipe has ruptured there and is leaking. Which means eventually one day, a collcting mat would have to be layed down over that area (which may be quite large).
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Oil Leaks From Gulf Seabed Cracks Around BP's Well Site?
by Edger,
June 13, 2010 - 2:59pm

British Petroleum (BP) has a collection of 'bots' or ROV's, remotely operated vehicles, tethered underwater robots operating in the Gulf of Mexico near the blown out Macondo Well site, while they attempt to either plug the leak or at least find ways to recover and siphon off the leaking oil.

Sitting on top of the well pipe projecting from the seabed is the BOP, or Blow Out Preventer, the large steel 450 ton apparatus that you may have seen in various photographs and videos from BP's Live Feed as they recently cut off the top of the riser pipe that ran from the BOP to the Deepwater Horizon platform before it burned and sank.

There has been much speculation lately that the well bore is damaged below the seabed and that oil is leaking out of the well into the seabed underneath and around the BOP.

Keeping in mind that the BOP weighs 450 tons it would seem that if the seabed is becoming saturated with oil leaking through it that is only a question of time before the seabed will no longer have the structural strength to support the weight of the BOP and that it could fall off the top of the well pipe it is sitting on, releasing an uncontrolled and uncontrollable flow of oil into the gulf with no way of plugging or stopping it.

BP denies that oil or gas are leaking from cracks in the sea floor on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

This video was recorded from the Viking Poseidon ROV 1 on June 13th, 2010, and appears to show bursts of oil leaking from cracks in the seabed.

I was not seeing things.......LOL

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You tube video of sea floor crack with oil poofing out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6-fPwLZP7s

Using chrome, have no link or image button.

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Quoting 850Realtor:


I saw it also and couldn't believe my eyes. It wasn't gushing out, but every few seconds there was a poof of oil or something.


Come on guys... 1000 or 10,000 psi does not give a "poof" of Oil. It gives a massive stream of High pressure gas... which rises to the surface really really fast.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


There is some truth to this story......i was watching the ROV's the other day and YES they was inspecting the Ocean bottom. What they showed and was looking at was Cracks from the Ocean Bottom that was seeping Oil. I did see this myself the other day. So, i do know that to be true. What i don't know is if that is common or not......I don't know....but, the ROV's sure the heck was showing this.


my honest opinion is that a lot more damage occurred when they did the top kill on memorial day weekend. all that mud being push into there and cutting that damn pipe!

did you see my post earlier about councilman young stating on cnn that bp owned 20% of the company that mfgs the dispersant being used in the gulf?
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1747
Anyone that would like to look at the PB ROV feeds, go to my blog and follow the links if you like.....sorry i posted i would get banned as i did the last time...
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txjac, where in Texas are located?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Thanks Keeper for backing what i seen up....i actually called my wife in to see also.....as she put it best......."HOLY HELL"


I saw it also and couldn't believe my eyes. It wasn't gushing out, but every few seconds there was a poof of oil or something.
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Quoting weathersp:


One in the middle gulf is 85.1 so it is possible...


Yeah. Just another reason to add to the scary list of why we really really don't need a storm in the gulf. Not that anyone else does need one either.
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If you think the gas bubble theory is a humdinger...look for the one about the submarine that shot torpedoes to cause the fire and then blew itself up a few days later to sink the rig.

Took Pottery's suggestion and googled oil spill conspiracy theories/myths.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i was watchin ROV's as well and i seen what looked like oil coming from cracks hmmmmm

ultimate pay back by mom nature blow a hole in the earth and fill the ocean full of oil how ironic if true


Thanks Keeper for backing what i seen up....i actually called my wife in to see also.....as she put it best......."HOLY HELL"
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The black gulf?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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