Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1367. xcool
cmc show that . JLPR2 7:
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1366. xcool
Link

ecwm
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1365. JLPR2
Quoting Magicchaos:


yup, decent convection going on there
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1364. xcool
mmm
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1363. JLPR2
Quoting Magicchaos:


Yeah, I was expecting a deactivation, but I think they want to watch it for a bit longer.


maybe its practice? XD
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1361. Skyepony (Mod)
Not real surprised 92L is still active. Even in the dark it's pretty easy to see the naked swirl traveling under the shear.
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1360. Skyepony (Mod)
Looking at the sat shot I'd guess inland but over land, at night hard to say.. disturbing west winds in Veracruz.. Surface obs on Wundermap..

The one Hades posted about is 92E the one the models didn't like so much.. they were way off on 02E. CMC shows a sudden shift N, not letting it into the BOC & killing it with MX. GFS acts like it still had a LLC.
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Quoting JLPR2:


O_o
That's interesting


Yeah, I was expecting a deactivation, but I think they want to watch it for a bit longer.
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1358. JLPR2
Quoting Magicchaos:
AL, 92, 2010061706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 554W, 25, 1013, WV

Still active as an invest it seems.


O_o
That's interesting
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AL, 92, 2010061706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 554W, 25, 1013, WV

Still active as an invest it seems.
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I'm out ........good nite all!
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1355. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:
That was EARS..the early version.. the rest are in 12.5km & amazingly enough windsat conferms..it is gone. Looking at MX topo..that a sweet low spot to jump to the BOC..

Ya'll still arguing about the filter go slum some surface obs..



that's nuts, maybe the energy jumped to that blob inland, I wonder what the NHC will say about this? They name a system and it disappears O_o?
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1354. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting JLPR2:


It vanished!
*The twilight zone music*
XD
That was EARS..the early version.. the rest are in 12.5km & amazingly enough windsat conferms..it is gone. Looking at MX topo..that a sweet low spot to jump to the BOC..

Ya'll still arguing about the filter go slum some surface obs..

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1353. xcool
thanks
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1352. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
6:00 AM UTC June 17 2010
===========================

The low pressure system located a few hundred miles south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to show signs of organization and only a small decrease in the upper level winds could result in the formation of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
There is a high risk of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
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Quoting xcool:
how about cmc too


Nothing on the 00z CMC at 144 hours:

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1350. xcool
how about cmc too
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:



for sure, i see atleast 2 people on that list that does not belong! [laughs]

ya know- that is total BS and makes me wanna leave
WU after being an avid user/member since 2004-2005.

i have long wondered why my posts seem to garner
less attention than they used to.

i personally think all one has to do is disagree
with the NHC or DR. Masters once on the blog and
poof there ya go.



for someone who has been forecasting the Tropics for
over 30 YEARS to be on that list is TOTAL BS!!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NO, not that.......nearly every single person are Conservatives........I guess we should bann together and start flagging all liberals then.......LOL



for sure, i see atleast 2 people on that list that does not belong! [laughs]

ya know- that is total BS and makes me wanna leave
WU after being an avid user/member since 2004-2005.

i have long wondered why my posts seem to garner
less attention than they used to.

i personally think all one has to do is disagree
with the NHC or DR. Masters once on the blog and
poof there ya go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z GFS shows an interesting feature southeast of the Windwards on June 24:



The ECMWF was forecasting tropical cyclogenesis in this area just a couple of nights ago, but has since dropped it. Most of the other models foresee at least a surge of moisture in the area during that time. Upper-level winds will be very favorable for development there.

I don't want to cause panic, I'm just saying it's an area of potential concern.
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1346. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh Ascat of 02E..it's suppose to be at ~15N 97W....


It vanished!
*The twilight zone music*
XD
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1345. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Ascat of 02E..it's suppose to be at ~15N 97W....
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Quoting Skyepony:
I'll get in on the scary oil tales...I've seen & wish I had links here & it wasn't total conspiracy nuts. The PSI is pretty high, there's some sand & grit in that oil, like a water jet ate up the pipe or atleast weakened badly. The gov't stopped the top kill prematurely because a gusher bigger than the one at the the wellhead opened up 5-6 miles away in the sea floor. Good chance the relief wells won't work & it gushes on for 10 years..

I dreamed a few weeks ago it all ended in a horrid mass evacuation & for some reason we were walking..

How about Veracruz blob stealing the thunder from 02E tonight...bad blob! 02E just wanted to be a healthy fish storm.


I hadn't looked at it in an hour..it's beginning to look more like a BOC Blob.


Now I'll have sweet dreams. Thanks Skyepony :) On that note, if I'm gonna have to move, is there somewhere without humidity, cooler temps and no bugs/creepy crawlies?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
NO, not that.......nearly every single person are Conservatives........I guess we should bann together and start flagging all liberals then.......LOL


Oh wait cause if that is the real reason for the censorship I'm cool with that. since it is so effective here can we do limbaugh, hannity and fox too?

big take back! :) never mind!
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Quoting szqrn1:

email


I just sent you a text.....LOL
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1341. xcool
1334. xcool 5:31 AM GMT on June 17, 2010
i have bad feel. would be something if we had more dry air just like 2009
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1340. Relix
Quoting xcool:
i have bad feel


Of what? 92L?
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1339. JLPR2


The ITCZ disturbance got convection but I believe its supposed to head into SA right?

No lifting to the Caribbean allowed with this one. :D
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Ok, going to bed for sure.
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1337. JLPR2
Quoting weathersp:
92L, a couple of showers and 1 thunderstorm.



haha! that one thunderstorm made me laugh xD
poor thing was torn apart, but its better for us ^^
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NO, not that.......nearly every single person are Conservatives........I guess we should bann together and start flagging all liberals then.......LOL
Ah, I see, I'm somewhere between conservative and a libertarian.
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I'm out too! Night all!
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1334. xcool
i have bad feel. would be something if we had more dry air just like 2009
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1333. szqrn1
Quoting TampaSpin:


WU mail......my email.....or FB mail......LOL...

email
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Tell me about it! Nothing wrong with a little humor, especially when all the news is so depressing. It is after all, a slow "news day" when it comes to the tropics. I try not to post a bunch of "bull" when a storm is out their and others are trying to get information or just simply learning.


NO, not that.......nearly every single person are Conservatives........I guess we should bann together and start flagging all liberals then.......LOL
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


No doubt, someone needs to say something outrageous to get some activity going in here. LOL! Need a tropical system or a troll to track :) Guess it's time to sleep. Night All.
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1330. Skyepony (Mod)
I'll get in on the scary oil tales...I've seen & wish I had links here & it wasn't total conspiracy nuts. The PSI is pretty high, there's some sand & grit in that oil, like a water jet ate up the pipe or atleast weakened badly. The gov't stopped the top kill prematurely because a gusher bigger than the one at the the wellhead opened up 5-6 miles away in the sea floor. Good chance the relief wells won't work & it gushes on for 10 years..

I dreamed a few weeks ago it all ended in a horrid mass evacuation & for some reason we were walking..

How about Veracruz blob stealing the thunder from 02E tonight...bad blob! 02E just wanted to be a healthy fish storm.


I hadn't looked at it in an hour..it's beginning to look more like a BOC Blob.
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Quoting txjac:
Going to bed too! Night all, see you tomorrow
Good night.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Take a close look at that list.....what is very consistent with nearly every person on that list.....VERY FUNNY!
Tell me about it! Nothing wrong with a little humor, especially when all the news is so depressing. It is after all, a slow "news day" when it comes to the tropics. I try not to post a bunch of "bull" when a storm is out their and others are trying to get information or just simply learning.
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Quoting szqrn1:


talking about the one about the oil spill and the hole and pressure equalization.. water and steam and tsunami and coastal devistation... that one... what'd you think?


WU mail......my email.....or FB mail......LOL...
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1326. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting szqrn1:
sorry just got here


No worries :)
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1324. Seastep
johnnyascat - just saying that it is not Doc, as you stated. It is objective. Now whether the default should be that or not is another story.

Out. Really, LOL.
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Quoting txjac:


hey there neighbor!
How did you fare during Ike? I had tidal water lapping at my door, but none got in the house. Only lost a single tab off of three different shingles on the roof. I got real lucky. My father-in-law in Galveston got 3 feet in his house. Just got him in it about 3 months ago.
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1322. txjac
Going to bed too! Night all, see you tomorrow
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Darn, I'm below average! Must be the ADD/ADHD. Time to take some Meds!


Take a close look at that list.....what is very consistent with nearly every person on that list.....VERY FUNNY!
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1320. xcool
hmmm
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1319. Seastep
Quoting johnnyascat:
ur okay with it, but I am not. it really makes me sick to my stomach. if you make outrageous posts, then you should be banned. but if you are making intelligent thoughtful posts and you are censored as below average then that is just plain wrong wrong wrong. and if you fine people who are not censored do not agree with me then I really know Im in the wrong part of the world here.


I agree. I posted a few days ago about it. I believe the default should be show all and filter is left up to the reader. If someone wants to filter based on the actions of anonymous individuals' opinion, whatever.

Why anyone would consciously do that is beyond me.

OK. Really going to bed now.
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1318. szqrn1
sorry just got here
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Quoting szqrn1:


oh wow you just said about what I was asking tampaspin about!! weird!


LOL! We've been discussing it, read back about a hundred posts. Think it started around #1214.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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