Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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we will see .... we will see...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok let me correct all your errors.

1. Just because you don't get a system in June doesn't mean the season is a bust. To give you an example 2004 had 15 named storms (I think) and the first named storm developed on July 31st. And the reason that this system never really took of is the location of where it developed, c'mon how many African waves do you see develop in June?

2. July will probably be when the systems begin to roll as the GFS forecasts shear to drop considerably throughout the basin, plus you have warm SSTs and lots of upward motion in the basin, as forecasted by the GFS.

3. Shear will not let up until August? That's pretty funny, how about you look at the GFS 200 mb forecast and then tell me if shear isn't going to let up until August. By the way the TUTT is a semi-permanent feature in the Atlantic, it just happened to be there when 92L passed by.

4. And it's pretty funny that you said that 14-16 named storms is an average hurricane season. And average season is 9-10 named storms. 14-16 can be considered as "above average".


somebody just got pwned
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
next to FL WATER TEMP AROUND 87F WOW.
This is a really worrisome graphic. Anything that approaches Florida will simply strengthen just before landfall.... from any direction of approach.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I told people that this hurricane season wasn't going to be so active like people were hyping it up to be.It seems that july will also be quite as well.Shear will not let up until august.14-16 named storms seems likley than the 17 plus storms people are forecasting.Sorry but 2010 will be your average hurricane year.But remember it only takes 1.


This statement is likely to be very incorrect. First of all, your average hurricane season does NOT have 14-16 named storms. That is above average. Second of all, you provide no evidence to support why July will be quiet and how shear isn't going to let up until August. We all know MJO is soon to be returned for much of the basin in the later parts of this month. Also, in reference to your EPAC statement, with the La Nina conditions the EPAC will actually be less active. 92E is already starting to choke.
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Do not be surprised if we still have 92L around on friday evening, mother nature is unpredictable and no science can beat that.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I told people that this hurricane season wasn't going to be so active like people were hyping it up to be.It seems that july will also be quite as well.Shear will not let up until august.14-16 named storms seems likley than the 17 plus storms people are forecasting.Sorry but 2010 will be your average hurricane year.But remember it only takes 1.
Ok let me correct all your errors.

1. Just because you don't get a system in June doesn't mean the season is a bust. To give you an example 2004 had 15 named storms (I think) and the first named storm developed on July 31st. And the reason that this system never really took off is the location of where it developed, c'mon how many African waves do you see develop in June?

2. July will probably be when the systems begin to roll as the GFS forecasts shear to drop considerably throughout the basin, plus you have warm SSTs and lots of upward motion in the basin, as forecasted by the GFS.

3. Shear will not let up until August? That's pretty funny, how about you look at the GFS 200 mb forecast and then tell me if shear isn't going to let up until August. By the way the TUTT is a semi-permanent feature in the Atlantic, it just happened to be there when 92L passed by.

4. And it's pretty funny that you said that 14-16 named storms is an average hurricane season. An average season is 9-10 named storms. 14-16 can be considered as "above average".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I told people that this hurricane season wasn't going to be so active like people were hyping it up to be.It seems that july will also be quite as well.Shear will not let up until august.14-16 named storms seems likley than the 17 plus storms people are forecasting.Sorry but 2010 will be your average hurricane year.But remember it only takes 1.



Do you have a degree in meteorology?
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Quoting charlottefl:
I remember a storm in 2005 that was dead and written off, whose name I won't mention. The amount of time it took to turn around in the warm waters of the Atlantic kinda shocked me. As long as there's energy and moisture left with the system, it's best to keep a watchful eye.

Yep came out of old TD10 but that was August and the shear was not what it is now. But as Pat said earlier "shear is hard to predict very far out", so it bears watching.
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Water Temp here is now 90 degrees.


Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
next to FL WATER TEMP AROUND 87F WOW.
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SHEAR WILL OUT LAST THE ENERGY FOR IT TO KEEP REFIRING oops sorry forgot caps were on any way i am sticking to my guns on this btwntx08 iwas half asleep sorry.
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I remember a storm in 2005 that was dead and written off, whose name I won't mention. The amount of time it took to turn around in the warm waters of the Atlantic kinda shocked me. As long as there's energy and moisture left with the system, it's best to keep a watchful eye.
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Quoting portcharlotte:
I would like to step in and say this about Bastardi...

His clients include some of the energy companies in the Gulf. He will forever bash Global Warming Advocates, Democrats, and anyone against big business. he claims to be an Independent but is really a right wing Republican. I do not like his mixing his wx blog with politics.
I agree with his tropical expertise and put blinders on when he talks politics.

Just my opinion

What is his blog called?
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
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Doesn't look quite ready to give up the ghost.
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Quoting btwntx08:
its in shear now but its beating the shear for now


Its looking pretty sick. Its firing off some new cells of deep convection but the convective pattern is rather amorphous. We'll see though. It might surprise us.
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EXCEPT IT GUYS ITS OVER NO MORE 92L
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BLOG UPDATE!

June 16, 2010 - 10:50 AM EDT - 92L Will It Sink Or Swim? -
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...

SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION THU
THROUGH SAT REACHING THE W WATERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. LOW PRES
NEAR 15N51W WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND MOVE NW PASSING THROUGH
THE LEEWARDS FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W ON
SUN.
AAH THANK YOU !!!!
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Dissipation by Friday is great news... the GOM is in desperate need of a ZERO season.




So are the rest of us who dont live in the GOM
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
it wont survive guys ,comeon we all know that the shear is gonna rip 92l isaid so days ago.......RIP92L
Don't forget what happened with Andrew in 1992. Everybody thought it was nothing and then it turned into a big something.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I mean as far as it being so far out this early. Not in terms of what it has or hasn't done during it's life cycle thus far. It's formation was notable.


Hmm OK, I will give you that one :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...

SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION THU
THROUGH SAT REACHING THE W WATERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. LOW PRES
NEAR 15N51W WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND MOVE NW PASSING THROUGH
THE LEEWARDS FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W ON
SUN.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


?? It has done exactly as most of the mainstream Models have predicted... what part was defying?


I mean as far as it being so far out this early. Not in terms of what it has or hasn't done during it's life cycle thus far. It's formation was notable.
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Models are predicting that it could even be a problem later down the road
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So far, the wind shear has failed to kill it completly
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Great update, however this storm has kind of just hung around, winds are actually up from 25 mph yesterday to 35mph, and also from a nw movement now to west, it definitly bears watching.
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it wont survive guys ,comeon we all know that the shear is gonna rip 92l isaid so days ago.......RIP92L
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That is still a good date and it may be 92L that does it. If it survives the shear and makes it to the western Carib or Gulf just maybe. Time will tell.

Quoting seflagamma:
Yeah! first threat is hopefully going away.

But I am still keeping my June 21st first hurricane prediction... probably will be wrong but oh well.. you never know when something will pop up!

Thanks Dr Masters!
Hi everyone!!!
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
I don't necessarily disagree with the Doc but I am not writing off 92L yet. It's been pretty tenacious thus far in defying climatology.


Surely keep an eye, if it opens into a wave though, it would be 93L.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Again referring back to the 200mb GFS. After Friday and about 3 or 4 days to clear everything out, it's going to be game on IMO.
Yeah, if you match that with some upward motion from the MJO we could see a TD, let's see what happens...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting hurricanejunky:
I don't necessarily disagree with the Doc but I am not writing off 92L yet. It's been pretty tenacious thus far in defying climatology.


?? It has done exactly as most of the mainstream Models have predicted... what part was defying?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
I would like to step in and say this about Bastardi...

His clients include some of the energy companies in the Gulf. He will forever bash Global Warming Advocates, Democrats, and anyone against big business. he claims to be an Independent but is really a right wing Republican. I do not like his mixing his wx blog with politics.
I agree with his tropical expertise and put blinders on when he talks politics.

Just my opinion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't necessarily disagree with the Doc but I am not writing off 92L yet. It's been pretty tenacious thus far in defying climatology.
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0-0-1
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Dissipation by Friday is great news... the GOM is in desperate need of a ZERO season.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
18. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like it, lol. After 92L the Atlantic will probably be quiet for a bit.


Teh season won't stay quite long!


Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I knew the hammer was going to come down fast today.


It was fast and furious.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like it, lol. After 92L the Atlantic will probably be quiet for a bit.



Again referring back to the 200mb GFS. After Friday and about 3 or 4 days to clear everything out, it's going to be game on IMO.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.