Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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DeepwaterHorizonJIC — June 12, 2010 — PENSACOLA, Fla. --- Crewmembers aboard the Coast Guard Cutter Juniper deploy the Shipboard Oil-Recovery System pump from the buoy deck into the boom area where oil is collected and contained June 11, 2010. The Juniper, homeported in Newport, R.I., began oil skimming operations off the Florida and Alabama coasts Friday. U.S. Coast Guard video by Petty Officer 3rd Class Colin White.

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Blog Update!

June 16, 2010 - 10:50 AM EDT - 92L Will It Sink Or Swim? -

Last call.
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161523
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
830 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM PDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 95.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA
MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 830 AM PDT...1530 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
OAXACA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
THESE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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Predicting the demise and dissapation of 92L seems to be a theme on this blog lately.

frankly,im surprised by Dr. Masters quick forecast of dissapation for 92L.
sometimes i cannnot help but to wonder who is actually writing this blog.

in my opinion, 92L is not being given a fair shake. it may well survive long term
by most likely dissapating early and then when over warm open waters after it passes
thru the shear i believe it will regenerate. atleast at the moment that is my forecast
in 4-5 days from now.

either way it should be interesting to watch.




Member Since: July 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Why on the tropical page it has 92L with tropical depression winds??.


Wind speed is not the only thing necessary for a storm to be classified as a TD
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i have only been blogging since this last year, which i'm glad for cause i have "met" some pretty good people. but i swear i have been looking at this site for the last 5 years. Dr. Master is rarely wrong and when "things" have occurred that other meteorologist say there is no way we could have predicted that, Dr Master's is the only one that stated it would. there has only been one thing that i didn't agree with and that was the situation with Bill Proenza.

so thanks Dr Masters for providing more information than any other weather news outlet.
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We got watches and warnings along the Mexican coast.

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FEATURED INFORMATION

www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com


Fire Causes Temporary Shut-Down on the Discoverer Enterprise

GULF OF MEXICO -- At approximately 9:30 am CDT, a small fire was observed at the top of the derrick on the Discoverer Enterprise. The fire was quickly extinguished. The preliminary review indicates the fire was caused by a lightning strike.

There were no injuries. All procedures were followed and, as a precaution, the LMRP containment operation was shut-down. All safety systems operated as designed.

Final safety and operational assurance inspections are underway and operations are expected to recommence this afternoon.
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Good late morning.
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158. Relix
So 92L is dying... again? XD. Seems like today will be its final march with the shear.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, June 16th
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Why on the tropical page it has 92L with tropical depression winds??.
A buoy last night reported winds of 31.5 knots at the surface. That's why they have it at 35 mph, I expect that to go down as the information is more than 12 hours old and there are no more reports of such winds at the surface.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes you did, thank you.
Your welcome you deserve it for all your hard work , so sorry Baltimore. Assuming always gets me in trouble
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TD Two-E in the Pacific...
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1st Public Advisory of TD 2-E
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Another ASCAT complete miss.

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Quoting SQUAWK:

You seem to be pretty knowledgeable with this stuff and are doing a good job of explaining your views. Not too shabby for a 13 year old.
Thank you.
Quoting Vortex16:



Lol Him is a she :D
LMAO, damn it not again.
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149. IKE
Completely exposed center on the 1445UTC visible on 92L. Looks like by this evening the Atlantic TWO will be....tropical storm formation is not expected in the next 48 hours.
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Quoting Patrap:
A lot of folks here older than 45 or so remember when all Canes were named after ladies.

My first Cat-3 was Betsy,,then Camille hit the coast 4 years later when I was 9.


Before that it was the military alphabet...not that I know that because I'm old enough to remember but by reading and hearing about it. My grandparents also went thru Hurricane King in 1950 which was a hum dinger.
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Quoting masonsnana:
Also it amazes me that your so informed for a 13 yr old. You run circles around this older lady. I believe I said that to you in my message on Sunday
Yes you did, thank you.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I didn't call him out on my age (Well I don't think I did, lol).



Lol Him is a she :D
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I told you, lol.

You seem to be pretty knowledgeable with this stuff and are doing a good job of explaining your views. Not too shabby for a 13 year old.
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Quoting Patrap:
A lot of folks here older than 45 or so remember when all Canes were named after ladies.
Oh wow didn't notice that.
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Quoting btwntx08:
why are calling 92L a she lol if this was alex it would be a he not a she


there are plenty of female alex's out there
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Hmmm bickering about age? This is generally talk that happens mid winter lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ughhh, your older than me, lol!What's funny?
Also it amazes me that your so informed for a 13 yr old. You run circles around this older lady. I believe I said that to you in my message on Sunday
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Hie everyone!
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A lot of folks here older than 45 or so remember when all Canes were named after ladies.

My first Cat-3 was Betsy,,then Camille hit the coast 4 years later when I was 9.
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Quoting masonsnana:
Just funny you called him out on your age, thats all hon
I didn't call him out on my age (Well I don't think I did, lol).
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Quoting SQUAWK:

I think you just proved that you are 13. LOL
I told you, lol.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ughhh, your older than me, lol!What's funny?
Just funny you called him out on your age, thats all hon
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FYI, it's Hurricane Charley not Charlie.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol! Is he Irish or something? Remember he would of been named Alex. LOL!

I think you just proved that you are 13. LOL
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However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.

Agree with the Dr. wholeheartedly and another bad omen for those who might think that the major forcasting pros are "off" on their highly active season forecasts. Another issue troubling me, is the pretty persistent ridging in the AB high out in the Central Atlantic. While the A-B will shift around, if is "sets" in place near the current location come August, I don't think that we will see a lot of significant recurvature with the CV storms and the general track of 92L, towards the Greater Antilles, is also consistent with the higher tracks we might expect to see with La Nina conditions in the Fall with several Florida, and, East Coast storms in play....92L is bad news all the way around no matter what happens with it at this point.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Yes I find weather fasinating.But I'am a female.
I apologize for assuming that you were a male.
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Shear Tendency:



SST:



WV:



LL Convergence:



UL Divergence:





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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I was born on october 28 1996.Graduating on friday.
Ughhh, your older than me, lol!
Quoting masonsnana:
LOL!
What's funny?
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Charlottefl thats why the predictions are so high for an active season!
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Quoting Patrap:
Sw shear is blowing 92L's skirt up a tad.




Lol! Is he Irish or something? Remember he would of been named Alex. LOL!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm only 13 too.
LOL!
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Tell you what's scary to me. Besides that one tongue of wind shear in the C. ATL, wind shear is remarkably low throughout the basin, and it's only June.
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Quoting kanc2001:


You gotta back those opinions up with science, recent numbers have shown El nino is gone and we are neutral/heading into weak La Nina. you are young, so you got plenty of time to learn. Heck I Lurk and I'm alot older than you, just sit back and watch the pros on here and you'll absorb a ton
I'm 13 too and I have to credit must of what I've learned about tropical meteorology to StormW, Drakoen, Levi32, and Kman. They really really helped be excel in the tropics.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.