Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:


Well that Host had us all fooled for years.
HE was CIA from Langley if I recall...?

But my recall is getting sporadic.


Chuck Barrett I think........
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Looking over the young ages of some of the bloggers this morning, and several of them are actually pretty good, this is like the weather version of America's Got Talent.....However, some of them are better suited for the Gong Show of yesteryears......... :)
LOL!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Looking over the young ages of some of the bloggers this morning, and several of them are actually pretty good, this is like the weather version of America's Got Talent.....However, some of them are better suited for the Gong Show of yesteryears......... :)


Well that Host had us all fooled for years.
He was CIA from Langley if I recall...?

But my recall is getting sporadic.

I keep hearing the Weds NOAA Radio test repeating in my head.

I liked the Gong Show..


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Quoting Levi32:
This disturbance will likely run into South America...and due to its low latitude probably doesn't have enough Coriolis force to do much.
Yeah, agreed.

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Quoting twhcracker:
JfV or "that man" would have wanted 92L to come to miami.
Quoting TropicalNonsense:



lol. could be.

maybe JFV

sometimes i do wonder if DR MASTERS
has a little help on the blog from time to time! [Laughs]
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Looking over the young ages of some of the bloggers this morning, and several of them are actually pretty good, this is like the weather version of America's Got Talent.....However, some of them are better suited for the Gong Show of yesteryears......... :)
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Quoting twhcracker:



lol. could be. sometimes i do wonder if DR MASTERS
has a little help on the blog from time to time! [Laughs]
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
11:30 AM EDT Advisory: Graphics Update
STORM TRACK:

ADVISORIES:
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This disturbance will likely run into South America...and due to its low latitude probably doesn't have enough Coriolis force to do much.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convection is still there it's just much weaker (note the warmer cloud tops).



Yeah, I know, making a joke as the LLC runs away from it. Made a good run at it though.
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206. IKE
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Quoting Levi32:
TPW shows rotation with an ITCZ disturbance near 38W.

Hmmmm... Let me check it out a little more.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Interesting to note 92L's LLC is becoming better defined now, lol. Now, where did that darn convection go.
Convection is still there it's just much weaker (note the warmer cloud tops).

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I see we have a new depression in the east pacific.
TPW shows rotation with an ITCZ disturbance near 39W.

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True dat Drak..

but alas..a Love squandered.


Sheared apart by A Evil Sw breeze.

Sad are we.

Not.
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Looking at the shape of the convection, if there was less shear this would have been a tropical depression.
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Quoting hamla:
has anyone heard about a 10 mile dia.GAS bubble on the gulf floor close to where the rig exploded???
according to richard c.hoalgram on coast to coast on the 14th of june there is 1 forming and he is gonna show proof this week.if this thing explodes he says a tidal wave will hit the gulf coast more twoard florida/al.
go to c2c and chek it outo can also google gas
i dont know what is facts and or what is fiction.you can also google gas bubble
i think he got into some KOOLAID




interesting story but i vote for KOOLAID.
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Interesting to note 92L's LLC is becoming better defined now, lol. Now, where did that darn convection go.
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A while ago it was said that depression 93E. Now I think that is almost a tropical storm.
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i did not snark at a 13 year old did i? if i did i feel ashamed of myself~!
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aspectre: One thing you have to realize is that the oil&gas has sand entrained with it, and that sand is acting as a sandblasting agent, widening the narrowest point (probably somewhere in the BOP). So it is totally possible that each flow rate estimate is accurate at the time. The flow rate will continue to go up until the reservoir at the bottom starts lowering pressure.
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:
Predicting the demise and dissapation of 92L seems to be a theme on this blog lately.

frankly,im surprised by Dr. Masters quick forecast of dissapation for 92L.
sometimes i cannnot help but to wonder who is actually writing this blog.



maybe it is jfv.
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Afternoon all! Even though 92L didn't develop, as Dr. Masters stated this a big sign of the season to come.
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93E rainbow Image

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Quoting Vortex16:


Wind speed is not the only thing necessary for a storm to be classified as a TD
I know it needs a closed circulation.
189. eddye
ladies and gentleman lookat it it is formingbetter
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
I wonder if a new circulation may try to form with that remaining ball of convection around 13.8N and 50.1W

really doubtful
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
All
Tropical Floater Imagery,and Oil Spill
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now im seeing it starting to get a bit more exposed
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Are the models still showing development in the carribean.
Quoting Vortex16:


Agreed, over the past few years we've seen plenty of invests that were condemned turn into td's



yep. the veterans know and remember [laughs]
i have seen this scenario many times since my first
storm back in 1979. It is quite possible.
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I wonder if a new circulation may try to form with that remaining ball of convection around 13.8N and 50.1W
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For the Atlantic they use lists that alternate every 6 years. But the names also alternate from male to female down the list. Alex is a male name according to the naming structure, because last year's first storm, was a female name, Ana.

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Alex is androgynous. It can either be short for a male name (Alexander) or female name (Alexandria). Or it can just be used by Alex for either sex.
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If one wants to see whats occurring ..one has to observe the Loops.

The stills dont show but a moment in time.



92L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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180. DDR
Good job Levi
Good ole itcz action here this afternoon...
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Quoting IKE:
Completely exposed center on the 1445UTC visible on 92L. Looks like by this evening the Atlantic TWO will be....tropical storm formation is not expected in the next 48 hours.

actually it would be tropical cyclone not storm if im correct
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting Hurricanes101:


The forecast you just put up, does not advance that downward motion eastward towards TD 2-E, so I think it will stay under neutral conditions
Yeah looks in between weak upward motion or just plain neutral. Regardless conditions are conducive in the EPAC for the time being.
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SSTs continue to rise; the shallow Bahamian waters being warmed the most.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The area is under very weak upward motion, it's about to get lots of downward motion so I expect that development to halt soon.



The forecast you just put up, does not advance that downward motion eastward towards TD 2-E, so I think it will stay under neutral conditions
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175. hamla
has anyone heard about a 10 mile dia.GAS bubble on the gulf floor close to where the rig exploded???
according to richard c.hoalgram on coast to coast on the 14th of june there is 1 forming and he is gonna show proof this week.if this thing explodes he says a tidal wave will hit the gulf coast more twoard florida/al.
go to c2c and chek it outo can also google gas
i dont know what is facts and or what is fiction.you can also google gas bubble
i think he got into some KOOLAID
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NHC has TD 2-E peaking out around 45 knots (51.8 mph).

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 96.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.2N 98.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 99.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

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Quoting IKE:
Looks like storm #2 in the east-PAC. Second storm usually forms in the east-PAC on June 25th. Looks like their ahead of schedule in the east-PAC when the B storm forms.
The area is under very weak upward motion, it's about to get lots of downward motion so I expect that development to halt soon.

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Quoting btwntx08:
why are calling 92L a she lol if this was alex it would be a he not a she


Alex is androgynous. It can either be short for a male name (Alexander) or female name (Alexandria). Or it can just be used by Alex for either sex.
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171. IKE
Looks like storm #2 in the east-PAC. Second storm usually forms in the east-PAC on June 25th. Looks like their ahead of schedule in the east-PAC when the B storm forms.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting outflow being noted with 92L. I have yet to see the exposed low though.

Actually never mind I see the exposed low.

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Interesting outflow being noted with 92L. I have yet to see the exposed low though.

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Quoting TropicalNonsense:
Predicting the demise and dissapation of 92L seems to
be a theme on this blog lately.

frankly,im surprised by Dr. Masters quick forecast of dissapation for 92L.
sometimes i cannnot help but to wonder who is actually writing this blog.

in my opinion, 92L is not being given a fair shake. it may well survive long term
by most likely dissapating early and then when over warm open waters after it passes
thru the shear i believe it will regenerate. atleast at the moment that is my forecast
in 4-5 days from now.

either way it should be interesting to watch.






Agreed, over the past few years we've seen plenty of invests that were condemned turn into td's
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DeepwaterHorizonJIC — June 12, 2010 — PENSACOLA, Fla. --- Crewmembers aboard the Coast Guard Cutter Juniper deploy the Shipboard Oil-Recovery System pump from the buoy deck into the boom area where oil is collected and contained June 11, 2010. The Juniper, homeported in Newport, R.I., began oil skimming operations off the Florida and Alabama coasts Friday. U.S. Coast Guard video by Petty Officer 3rd Class Colin White.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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