Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Oops,,scuse me.

Wall-O-Shear


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265. IKE
I don't see anything substantial on the 12Z GFS through June 27th.
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Why 92L isn't a TD?In my opinion 92L fights like samurai-to the end
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Quoting Levi32:
06z GFS showed the potential for mischief of 92L in the Gulf of Mexico. We'll see if the 12z shows similar things.

Nope, it just soaks Florida and then just dissipates.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Young people are what moves society.

And more experienced people are who keep society outta the ditch!
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Maybe 92L will be something later down the road like our good friend Karen...

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.
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Quoting AllStar17:
**REPOST**
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
11:30 AM EDT Advisory: Graphics Update
STORM TRACK:

ADVISORIES:
Um....yours still beat mine. :(

Storm Track:

Forecast Track:

Advisories:
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When the 12z ECMWF comes out I will be interested in seeing if it still develops a cyclone around the 192hr time frame.
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Quoting Levi32:
06z GFS showed the potential for mischief of 92L in the Gulf of Mexico. We'll see if the 12z shows similar things.



I think it's too hard to tell that far out what its remnants will do. It might not even have remnants. I've seen shear actually blow the whole system away. Not in one piece, of course.
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WTPN31 KNHC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (TWO) WARNING NR 001
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
1530 UTC WED JUN 16 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA
MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 16/1530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 16/1530Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 96.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.2N 98.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 99.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 95.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z//
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Quoting msgambler:
Don't you mean "sharp as a rock" Pat....LOL Good Morning


Sorry,G Morning,I was watching Y & R and the ATCF Imagery
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06z GFS showed the potential for mischief of 92L in the Gulf of Mexico. We'll see if the 12z shows similar things.

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Quoting IKE:
Being honest again...lol...looks like the 12Z GFS aims the remains of/92L...to south Florida...ans it moves toward the GOM....at 150 hours...

Man I already had the images link copied and was about to post it, lol.
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Quoting TropicalNonsense:

yes, expect 92L to look sheared, and sickly for the
next 48 hours due to the heavy shear effects.

but all that has to happen is for the mid/low level
circulation to survive for a few more days and it will
have a marginal chance at bouncing back in the near
future. proably just as everyone has given up on it
and written it off.

in the meantime, if it can hold some convection it
may not fall apart all together.


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hmmmm a sign of things to come?

Current temperature in Miami international airport is 93F and the record was set at 94F in 2005. LOL, I probably scared some people.


OMG IZ DA END OF DA WORLDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!111!!!ONE!!1111!!SHIFTONE!!!1!11

J/K, I don't actually think that means anything other than the SE having one hell of summer. I'm in NW SC, and we've tied some records and we'll be in the 90s for the rest of the week.
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249. IKE
Being honest again...lol...looks like the 12Z GFS aims the remains of/92L...to south Florida...as it moves toward the GOM....at 150 hours...

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12z GFS suggesting a disturbance near South America and the southern Antilles in 96 hours...weakens it afterward presumably due to land interaction.

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92L, although done with its chances of developing during this portion of its lifetime, could be a problem in the Gulf of Mexico in 6-8 days if it remains a recognizable feature.
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Hmmmm a sign of things to come?

Current temperature in Miami international airport is 93F and the record was set at 94F in 2005. LOL, I probably scared some people.
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245. IKE
To be honest, the circulation looks less well-defined today vs. yesterday.
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Now, I haven't RIPed 92L completely, I've just RIPed it for the next couple of days. There is a possibility that the NHC might de-activate 92L, but it could still survive. I think that if 92L can survive the shear, look out. It'll be hard to survive it, though, and I don't think it will.
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243. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
Kinda looking like some outflow boundaries with 92L...not healthy.


I just noticed that w/92L. Systems getting shredded.
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Quoting extreme236:
Kinda looking like some outflow boundaries with 92L...not healthy.
Noticed it too.

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92 has his head down, elbows out as he plows into the shear...he's trying...
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Since 92L is getting slowly closer...

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Kinda looking like some outflow boundaries with 92L...not healthy.
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**REPOST**
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
11:30 AM EDT Advisory: Graphics Update
STORM TRACK:

ADVISORIES:
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is the one ECMWF develops?


No that one is farther behind and is showing little development yet. This little bugger should be moving inland near Guyana, Venezuela, or Trinidad in about 3 days, and is not significantly developed on the models.
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Quoting Levi32:
Diffluent flow aloft is aiding convection with 92L, and will likely continue to support moderate convection throughout the day. The diffluent flow is being caused by two air streams parting ways. The first is the air stream on the SE flank of the TUTT, and the other is the air stream along the northern periphery of the upper ridge north of Suriname. When two air streams part ways, air is being pulled away from the split, causing a form of upper divergence which draws air up from beneath, and the rising air supports thunderstorms.

Well, not much divergence ahead of the system, so it should die down later on this afternoon significantly.
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Quoting CaneAddict:
Good morning everyone, once again I see that 92L could not persist enough to be declared a depression before weakening again. Starting to look very ragged and the center of circulation is starting to become exposed. I think i'll start carving a tombstone for 92L. In other words I believe 92L is coming close to meeting it's demise.


Don't worry, half the bloggers on here have already done that.
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92L just goes to show us that while early development out in the tropical atlantic isn't impossible this time of year, but it remains a very challenging feat for a system to accomplish.
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Quoting Levi32:
This disturbance will likely run into South America...and due to its low latitude probably doesn't have enough Coriolis force to do much.


That is the one ECMWF develops?
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yes, expect 92L to look sheared, and sickly for the
next 48 hours due to the heavy shear effects.

but all that has to happen is for the mid/low level
circulation to survive for a few more days and it will
have a marginal chance at bouncing back in the near
future. proably just as everyone has given up on it
and written it off.

in the meantime, if it can hold some convection it
may not fall apart all together.
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Low-mid level turning is evident with the ITCZ disturbance approaching 40W, southeast of 92L. Visible Loop
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Quoting msgambler:
Don't you mean "sharp as a rock" Pat....LOL Good Morning


...tack
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Quoting Grothar:


Old people move society, too; only we do it at a 'slower' pace. LOL
LOL!
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Young people are what moves society.


Old people move society, too; only we do it at a 'slower' pace. LOL
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Good morning everyone, once again I see that 92L could not persist enough to be declared a depression before weakening again. Starting to look very ragged and the center of circulation is starting to become exposed. I think i'll start carving a tombstone for 92L. In other words I believe 92L is coming close to meeting it's demise.
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Quoting Patrap:
Chuck Barris

See..sharp as a pinhole eye still...
Don't you mean "sharp as a rock" Pat....LOL Good Morning
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Diffluent flow aloft is aiding convection with 92L, and will likely continue to support moderate convection throughout the day. The diffluent flow is being caused by two air streams parting ways. The first is the air stream on the SE flank of the TUTT, and the other is the air stream along the northern periphery of the upper ridge north of Suriname. When two air streams part ways, air is being pulled away from the split, causing a form of upper divergence which draws air up from beneath, and the rising air supports thunderstorms.

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222. myway
Chuck Berris
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Chuck Barris

See..sharp as a pinhole eye still...
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Chuck Barrett I think........


Barris
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LOL, 92L is making a wall.

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Quoting Patrap:


Well that Host had us all fooled for years.
HE was CIA from Langley if I recall...?

But my recall is getting sporadic.


Chuck Barrett I think........
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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