Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
June 15 - Invest 92L struggles with shear.

June 17 - Invest 92L is discontinued by the NHC

June 25 - Remnants of Invest 92L orgainze rapidly, NHC breaks out the yellow crayon.

June 28th - TD #1 forms from the remnants of 92L

June 30 - TD #1 becomes TS Alex

July 1 - Alex strengthens to a 50 m/h storm, slams into LA/MS.


Wow- that would be an oily scenario.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And that WindSAT pass is 6 or 7 hours old.


Was talking about visible imagery not the WindSat pass.
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The actual surface winds probably still look a lot like this pass did 7 hours ago...you can still see the SSW inflow into the old convection to the east of the LLC on visible. Still open to the south and southwest though as it was in this pass.

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Quoting Levi32:


Yes and a plot of the surface winds would show you that, but take a closer look at it....looks like a swirl in the low-level cloud field, which shows us that it was vigorous while underneath the MCC, even though it was open, and still remains well-defined despite being an open trough now. It is not what we would call a "broad" feature...if you take a look at the structure.
And that WindSAT pass is 6 or 7 hours old.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
June 15 - Invest 92L struggles with shear.

June 17 - Invest 92L is discontinued by the NHC

June 25 - Remnants of Invest 92L orgainze rapidly, NHC breaks out the yellow crayon.

June 28th - TD #1 forms from the remnants of 92L

June 30 - TD #1 becomes TS Alex

July 1 - Alex strengthens to a 50 m/h storm, slams into LA/MS.


???
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NOGAPS 12z develops a system in the SW Caribbean. It can be noted since 84 hours.

NOGAPS 12z 120 Hours

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309. IKE
I'm having a harder time finding a center on 92L.

I sense a deactivation of the invest soon.

Then again, I thought the blob behind 92L would be 93L, so what do I know?

I also think there's an increasing chance June winds up 0-0-0 in the Atlantic. You could say that about any season on June 16th, but I don't see much the next 10 days.
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Quoting scottsvb:


I see E and NE winds with a calm side @ the SWend of the surface trough


Yes and a plot of the surface winds would show you that, but take a closer look at it....looks like a swirl in the low-level cloud field, which shows us that it was vigorous while underneath the MCC, even though it was open, and still remains well-defined despite being an open trough now. It is not what we would call a "broad" feature...if you take a look at the structure.
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92L starting to look more linear in appearance.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
June 15 - Invest 92L struggles with shear.

June 17 - Invest 92L is discontinued by the NHC

June 25 - Remnants of Invest 92L orgainze rapidly, NHC breaks out the yellow crayon.

June 28th - TD #1 forms from the remnants of 92L

June 30 - TD #1 becomes TS Alex

July 1 - Alex strengthens to a 50 m/h storm, slams into LA/MS.


I think your timeline is quite a bit off,

in 9 days 92L will be well into the Gulf of Mexico and long gone by July 1st
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol. Convection beginning to rise on the northern quadrant too.



OMG, it is making a shear wall! LOL Wonder if it'll work.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
so lets recap, 92L is dead, its not dead, its on hiatus, may develop, who knows, lets drink

6 different models develop 8 different systems at 7 different times in 5 different places

so basically we know squat! lol
ROFLMAO!
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Quoting Levi32:


Actually have to disagree....with the LLC becoming exposed the low-level cloud movements are easy to see and there is a vigorous LLC...but it is open to the south and southwest. It is not gone at the surface. Watch the cumulus.


I see E and NE winds with a calm side @ the SWend of the surface trough
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so lets recap, 92L is dead, its not dead, its on hiatus, may develop, who knows, lets drink

6 different models develop 8 different systems at 7 different times in 5 different places

so basically we know squat! lol
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Quoting Levi32:


Actually have to disagree....with the LLC becoming exposed the low-level cloud movements are easy to see and there is a vigorous LLC...but it is open to the south and southwest.
Exactly.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
92L entering into the GOM later on with water temp around 88F its will be a cat 3 hurricane..



if wind shear will decrease-why not...
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Quoting scottsvb:
As you all can see on visable sat.. (except the 1s who dont want to accept it)there is no LLC @ the surface...92L is 90% in the midlevels.

Sorry you hate me for stating this nonstop, but this is what it is.

The Pacific TD should become a tropical storm within the next 12hrs.


Actually have to disagree....with the LLC becoming exposed the low-level cloud movements are easy to see and there is a vigorous LLC...but it is open to the south and southwest. It is not gone at the surface. Watch the cumulus streets.

Link
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...I was five minutes late with seeing the WindSAT image
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Chuck Barrett I think........


Chuck Barris...he CLAIMED to be CIA
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Quoting kmanislander:


LOL. That's funny how we both went looking for that at the same time.


Lol...been waiting for a clean pass since Monday.
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As you all can see on visable sat.. (except the 1s who dont want to accept it)there is no LLC @ the surface...92L is 90% in the midlevels.

Sorry you hate me for stating this nonstop, but this is what it is.

The Pacific TD should become a tropical storm within the next 12-24hrs.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
92L entering into the GOM later on with water temp around 88F its will be a cat 3 hurricane..


Heck no!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


now you've done it ... just when the comments were reaching required ratio necessary to kill of 92L, you had to go and do that!
Lol. Convection beginning to rise on the northern quadrant too.

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Rotating Globe Movie
Updated every three hours.




These MPEG movies show weather systems over a rotating globe. They are created by combining data from 5 geostationary orbiting satellites (GOES-East, GOES-West, Meteosat at 0, Meteosat at 63E, and MTSAT), polar orbiting satellites and a topographic map of the Earth. Get more information about playing MPEG movies.
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I remember Gustav/2008 also had a difficult time organizing due to shear. I will RIP 92L when it is long gone but as long as ANYTHING is showing I will watch it carefully.


Gustav formed from a tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 13 August. The wave continued westward across the tropical Atlantic, with the associated shower activity first showing signs of organization on 18 August. Westerly vertical wind shear, however, prevented significant development for the next several days. The wave moved through the Windward Islands on 23 August with a broad area of low pressure accompanied by disorganized shower activity. Organization increased late on 24 August as the system moved northwestward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea,
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
92L entering into the GOM later on with water temp around 88F its will be a cat 3 hurricane..


It takes a whole lot more than hot water to make a major hurricane.
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh my bad didn't see your post that fast. The pass just now came available.


LOL. That's funny how we both went looking for that at the same time.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
NOGAPS 12z (96 hours) develops a system in the SW Caribbean and intensifies the remnants of 92L while it's over Haiti.

Link
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Quoting Levi32:
WindSat from 7 hours ago during the MCC....surface low was starting to open up.



At first, I thought it was closed, it looks absoultely PERFECT on the N, E, and S sides, but it's open to the W.
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TD/02/E
MARK
14.9N/95.7
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
00z ECMWF at 216hr:

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Quoting kmanislander:
I don't know if anyone posted this yet but Windsat got a good look at 92L this morning. If the shear eases off at all this thing could ramp up very quickly IMO



Oh my bad didn't see your post that fast. The pass just now came available.
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Quoting Patrap:
Oops,,scuse me.

Wall-O-Shear




I'ma just get right past you if you don't mind.
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WindSat from 7 hours ago during the MCC....surface low was vigorous but starting to open up.

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BP reportedly agrees to put $20 billion in escrow to cover oil spill claims
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I don't know if anyone posted this yet but Windsat got a good look at 92L this morning. If the shear eases off at all this thing could ramp up very quickly IMO

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting extreme236:
Maybe 92L will be something later down the road like our good friend Karen...

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.


Let's hope not.

Not meaning to scare anyone here, but Katrina was the same way. It formed from the remnants of TD 10 and a tropical wave.

Same with Arthur, formed from the remnants of Alma in the EPAC and a tropical wave. Thing is, this time of year, the waves are too far south.
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Quoting IKE:
I don't see anything substantial on the 12Z GFS through June 27th.
So far NOGAPS 12z leaves the remnants of 92L over Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. NOGAPS 12z 72 hours.
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Nothing significant on the 12z GFS.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nope, it just soaks Florida and then just dissipates.


Maybe...maybe not. Look at the 00z ECMWF. It shows vorticity from 92L entering into the GOM later on.
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Quoting IKE:
I don't see anything substantial on the 12Z GFS through June 27th.
Agreed.
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Quoting extreme236:
Maybe 92L will be something later down the road like our good friend Karen...

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.


LOL
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254
Oops,,scuse me.

Wall-O-Shear


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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