Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
I don't see a LLC left with 92L. Just a broad cyclonic turning.


Looking at visible this morning, your correct. I got up to darned early this morning.
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1416. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1415. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1414. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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1412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1411. pottery
Good Morning.
Showers overnight, and this morning here.
Looking at that large area of heavy rain between 40W and 50W that is below 10N but showing some vorticity.
Really hope it stays south and runs into the Spanish Main. Otherwise we will have some heavy stuff from that.
92L still strutting! Way to go!
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All of 92L's convection is TUTT enhanced that's why it has that "sheared" appearance. 92L no longer has a LLC just some low level cyclonic rotation. 92L should be stripped of it's invest status but regardless the Greater Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaola should watch its progress as it could bring gusty winds and flooding.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning.
Stormpetrol, are you in the islands?

Good morning, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.
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Good Morning.
Stormpetrol, are you in the islands?
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FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUNTO MALDONADO
MEXICO.

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

100% for 92E so we have TD warning in the next Report
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92L circulation around 15.5-16N/57W, this is most pronounced the circulation ever looked in my opinion.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
92L still has a vigorous circulation, I think it bears watching still.


Gonna hit some pretty severe sheer over the next 24 hours that might eliminate the wave altogether....If not, then the next chance would be if it survives and makes it north of PR and Haiti......I'll leave that speculation to the models for now....... :)
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1399. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They won't get bashed for their 13-27 like NOAA did for their 14-23 :)


I'll bash em for it...13 to 27? But they did pick a specific number(20).

I'm not surprised by their prediction of an active season.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
UKMET did a good job in 2009 with the numbers. If they go with 20 in 5 months...that's 4 per month on average.


They won't get bashed for their 13-27 like NOAA did for their 14-23 :)
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92L still has a vigorous circulation, I think it bears watching still.
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1396. SLU
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
UKMET office has issued their seasonal forecast:

Issued 17 June 2010

The most likely number of tropical storms predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the July to November period is 20, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 13 to 27. This represents above-normal activity relative to the 1990–2005 long-term average of 12.4.

An ACE index of 204 is predicted as the most likely value, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 90 to 319 — which is above normal relative to the 1990–2005 average of 131.

Note: The forecast is for the five full months remaining in the June–November Atlantic tropical storm season.


OMG!!!!!!!
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1395. IKE
UKMET did a good job in 2009 with the numbers. If they go with 20 in 5 months...that's 4 per month on average.

92L looks to be moving west and is heading south of PR, for now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Morning.......Looks like a quiet day in the tropics and for the Blog. No blobs to watch on the Atlantic side so I suppose folks today will be posting model runs as to the future. Will be interesting to see when the e-pac quiets down a bit, and, when that band of destructive sheer spanning from the Caribbean eastward into the tropical Atlantic will subside; might be a few weeks before that happens.
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1393. IKE
Quoting IKE:
I don't see a LLC left with 92L. Just a broad cyclonic turning.


Now that the sun has come up over 92L...I'll correct my earlier post.

I now see a center near 16N and 57W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
UKMET office has issued their seasonal forecast:

Issued 17 June 2010

The most likely number of tropical storms predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the July to November period is 20, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 13 to 27. This represents above-normal activity relative to the 1990–2005 long-term average of 12.4.

An ACE index of 204 is predicted as the most likely value, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 90 to 319 — which is above normal relative to the 1990–2005 average of 131.

Note: The forecast is for the five full months remaining in the June–November Atlantic tropical storm season.
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If it just headed a tiny bit north it would be in the clear.

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1390. BVI
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is what is going on this morning in Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands as a wave in front of the stronger wave is bringing the wet weather today. Looks like a wet weekend here.



Very impressive lightening display at dawn in the British Virgin islands, thunder still rumbling
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1389. IKE
Tropics Remain Quiet

Jun 17, 2010 6:44 AM

An area of disturbed weather that was spawned by a tropical wave a few days ago is roughly 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands Thursday morning. This system is moving west at about 5 degrees longitude per day. Satellite images continue to show a weak cyclonic circulation in the lower-level clouds wrapping into the system. However, the large area of thunderstorms that formed in and around this system Tuesday night and Wednesday morning fell apart as the system moved into an area of strong westerly shear. This shear will continue to prevent further development and will prevent this system from developing into an organized tropical system. There continues to be a small area of thick clouds and rain within the system, and this will start to affect the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will bring heavier rainfall to Puerto Rico on Saturday. Eventually this system will impact the Dominican Republic and Haiti Sunday into Monday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Other tropical waves between 35 and 40 west south of 13 north, between 65 and 70 west south of 17 north and over Central America remain very weak and disorganized.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
Looking at the latest model runs. The ECMWF shows a wave entering the Eastern Caribbean and then fizzling out. I don't see anything significant on the run through June 27th.

Latest GFS takes the remains of 92L across peninsula Florida as a wave. Nothing significant on the run through July 3rd.

CMC...nothing significant through June 23rd.

NOGAPS...nothing significant through June 22nd.



Use the time to prepare because it will get exciting starting July.
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This is what is going on this morning in Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands as a wave in front of the stronger wave is bringing the wet weather today. Looks like a wet weekend here.

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1386. IKE
Looking at the latest model runs. The ECMWF shows a wave entering the Eastern Caribbean and then fizzling out. I don't see anything significant on the run through June 27th.

Latest GFS takes the remains of 92L across peninsula Florida as a wave. Nothing significant on the run through July 3rd.

CMC...nothing significant through June 23rd.

NOGAPS...nothing significant through June 22nd.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1385. MahFL
Baltimorebirds...what exactly would you bomb ?
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1384. IKE
I don't see a LLC left with 92L. Just a broad cyclonic turning.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Morning All

I am surprised that remnant 92 is still there and producing convection. The LLC is still turning quite nicely looking at satellite and the 850 Vort from Cimms. Still producing some inflow as well. Day 1 of the shear though, it looks to last another 48 hours.
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..back to bed :)
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Quoting SCwannabe:
92L...RIP!! Thanks for the excitement! You really got the blog fired up for the season!


heavy weather is expected through the leewards, USVI ar PR in the near term though
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Looks like TD Two-E will dissipate without incident, and 92E will become the dominant circulation.
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92L...RIP!! Thanks for the excitement! You really got the blog fired up for the season!
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Morning,

Hey HadesGodWyvern!

Some models kill this system due the coast, but have to put an eye on this especially movement if turn west could be stronger.
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1377. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP022010
9:00 AM UTC June 17 2010
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Two (1007 hPa) located at 15.5N 97.4W or 25 NM southwest of Puerto Escondido, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 16.2N 99.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.8N 102.4W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 17.0N 105.1W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
=====================================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WEST OF ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
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I'm going to bed.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
1375. xcool


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1374. xcool
HA
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1373. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
look at drity 92L


yeah, I was lucky that shear was in place, 92L would have probably given me a visit if it would have developed.
*phew* :)
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1372. xcool
look at drity 92L
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1371. JLPR2
looks good on the AVN imagery and what's left of 92L is firing some cells of convection


Some little turning, but its so far south its basically almost impossible for it to spin, no Coriolis so far south
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CMC takes it's 850 vorticity into South America at around 54 hours and back out in the SW Caribbean at 126 hours.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
1369. xcool
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1368. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
cmc show that . JLPR2 7:


nope, none of the models do anything with that area, its just pretty convection
XD
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1367. xcool
cmc show that . JLPR2 7:
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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