Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Everybody gone?

The basin is quite... that's boring.
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hey guys I think 92L still has a chance to develop it is just lower that before but it can 92L has been going against all odds as 92L grew then Doc put up blog that it could become TD1 then it becomes weak then Doc says that it will die then it redevelops almost becomes TD1 and weakens I expect it to redevelop and maybe make it this time even thou shear is a little on the high side it is decreasing I think it will enter the Caribbean and develop 92l is the little system that could and can amd will 92L the fighter ok I get it it is now exposed buy that can change



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Everybody gone?
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Quoting IKE:
And the day after Cindy formed, Dennis formed...on the 4th of July. One week later, July 11th, Emily formed.

2005 was one hell of a season.


I remember that well...because of the threat of Dennis, we had to leave Key West 2 days early and they gave us a half hour to pack up and get out. Then, sitting in traffic for stretches, it took us 7 hours just to get from Key West to Miami on US1. My wife's birthday is 4th of July so that was a nice post b-day gift. UGH!

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Personally, I'd rather listen to you than Joe.


I 2nd that one...
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LLC racing westward lol with its clothes behind
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560. JRRP
another one ??

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Cindy was a bit of a shock as it came thru overnight and wasn't touted as being much to worry about (even by Bob Breck) Didn't even bother to close the shutters on the front of the house. Woke up and went outside to find a neighbor's tree had fallen about three feet in front of my car. Getting to work was quite an adventure with plenty of power outages and trees down.

Of course, Katrina came along.....

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There is another vortex near and east of tropical depression two.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's nothing. I asked how named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes there are going to be and look what it said.


LMAO. Looks like it might possibly be predicting on the low end a little there.
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555. xcool
AL, 92, 2010061618, , BEST, 0, 148N, 521W, 25, 1011, DB
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Quoting Caribbeanislands101:
I believe that invest 92 is gone with the wind
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
553. IKE
And the day after Cindy formed, Dennis formed...on the 4th of July. One week later, July 11th, Emily formed.

2005 was one hell of a season.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2005's First Cane

July 5-6th





On June 24 a vigorous tropical wave moved off the African coast and quickly west across the Atlantic without developing. The wave gradually became more organized as it crossed the Caribbean and late on July 3 it strengthened into Tropical Depression Three about 80 miles (130 km) east of Chetumal, Mexico. The models initially had difficulty predicting the track of the depression and the forecasts from the National Hurricane Center reflected this, indicating that the depression would move towards Texas. The depression developed quickly before making landfall on Yucatan Peninsula early on July 4 with 35 mph (55 km/h) winds and began to lose its circulation overland.

A new center of circulation began forming later on July 4, over the Gulf of Mexico, to the north of the original center. This reformation caused a significant alteration in the forecast models, which now indicated a landfall in Louisiana.
The depression moved northwards into the Gulf of Mexico and became a Tropical Storm Cindy early on July 5. Weakened shear allowed Cindy to strengthen further as it approached Louisiana and the storm was a minimal hurricane with 75 mph (120 km/h) winds when it made landfall near Grand Isle late on July 5.

Initially it was felt that Cindy did not reach hurricane strength, but post-season reanalysis confirmed the upgrade.

Hurricane Cindy weakened back into a tropical storm as it crossed over extreme southeastern Louisiana and Breton Sound before making a second landfall near Waveland, Mississippi with 50 mph (85 km/h) winds on July 6.

Cindy moved to the northeast over Mississippi and Alabama, weakening to a tropical depression that day.

The depression became extra-tropical over the Carolina's on July 7 and moved to the northeast dissipating in the Gulf of St Lawrence on July 9.

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Quoting StormGoddess:

That's exactly why it's so funny. LOL


Had 3 empty posts, did I strike a nerve? :(
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Quoting IKE:


216 hours is 9 days. That's yesterdays 12Z run. Nine days from today is June 25th. Your map shows June 24th.
My bad. The time stamp on the 0 hour said 6/16 so I figured it was today's run.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
We were lucky on 92l the circulation is very large should take a while to whined down, but soon to hit 50 knot shear and increasing that should finish it. The open wave may bring some trouble down the road.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Really shouldn't laugh, It's probably just as good if not better than some of the elementary and middle schoolers in here. LOL

That's exactly why it's so funny. LOL
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Quoting DestinJeff:
What will June hold for tropical activity?
That's nothing. I asked how named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes there are going to be and look what it said.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
Images made by Cyclonekid

Tracking (No Satellite):

Tracking (Satellite):

Forecast:

Advisories:
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162 WaterWitch11 "There has only been one thing that i didn't agree with and that was the situation with Bill Proenza."

Yep, science set back by political assassination.
QuikSCAT was the first to provide sufficiently in-depth and wide-range hard data to prove that the AntarcticIceSheet is melting -- ie decreasing in mass -- contradicting a misinterpretation of snow depth measurements favored by FlatEarthers such as USSenator JamesInhofe.
And for QuikSCAT's "crime", those of us interested in studying TropicalCyclones hafta make do with partial coverage showing only a less-than-satisfactory portion of any given storm and its surrounding environs.

* An inch of ice melt equals many inches of snow depth.
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Quoting StormGoddess:

ROFLMAO


Really shouldn't laugh, It's probably just as good if not better than some of the elementary and middle schoolers in here. LOL
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543. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z ECMWF has a TD/TS affecting Trinidad and Tobago, it also has the remnants of 92L in the Caribbean as a 1009 millibar low.

ECMWF 12z 216 Hours



216 hours is 9 days. That's yesterdays 12Z run. Nine days from today is June 25th. Your map shows June 24th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DestinJeff:
What will June hold for tropical activity?

ROFLMAO
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Quoting Caribbeanislands101:

What about Puerto Rico and USVL
Those aren't US states.
Quoting DestinJeff:


and throwing darts.
LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
540. IKE
I see a strong low off Manhattan on the end of the 12Z ECMWF run. Numerous systems in the east-PAC. I thought the eastern Pacific was suppose to be slow in 2010?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
They continue to update the low pressure positions at Best Track.

AL, 92, 2010061618, , BEST, 0, 148N, 521W, 25, 1011, DB
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12z ECMWF has a TD/TS affecting Trinidad and Tobago, it also has the remnants of 92L in the Caribbean as a 1009 millibar low.

ECMWF 12z 216 Hours

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting DestinJeff:


and throwing darts.


Jeff -- He disappeared off of my screen a long time ago
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Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF shows very little through June 26th in the Atalntic

thanks
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92L is really getting hit by the shear. It's neat to see on radar. I'm not sure the low can survive, but if it does, it needs to be watched.
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9% done hurricane season... cmon 0-0-0 keep it up. Lets not have death and destruction for 1 year.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6623
532. IKE
Quoting Caribbeanislands101:
Are any of the computer models still predicting a possible storm in the s. antilles next week?


Don't see much on any runs at 12Z. Just posted the latest ECMWF. I think June is headed toward 0-0-0:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
With current factors and forecasts (Also in part because I'm bored) I'm going to give a hurricane landfall possibility by state.

North Carolina: 35%
South Carolina: 40%
Georgia: 45%
Florida: 80%
Alabama: 50%
Mississippi: 60%
Louisiana: 60%
Texas: 60%

Ok. Now back to lurking...

What about Puerto Rico and USVL
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Quoting Patrap:


Wasnt a good spot to be in a Hi Profile Vehicle.

A lotta truckers have to deal with sudden wind.

It dont give much warning from ya flanks



yeah, it was pretty intense for any vehicle. not good for a high profile vehicle for sure
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Here you go, Levi...
LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
527. IKE
12Z ECMWF shows very little through June 26th in the Atlantic
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
With current factors and forecasts (Also in part because I'm bored) I'm going to give a hurricane landfall possibility by state.

North Carolina: 35%
South Carolina: 40%
Georgia: 45%
Florida: 80%
Alabama: 50%
Mississippi: 60%
Louisiana: 60%
Texas: 60%

Ok. Now back to lurking...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Are any of the computer models still predicting a possible storm in the s. antilles next week?
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Quoting tornadodude:


I believe it was just straight line winds, as it was form the gust front at the leading edge of the storms.

but yeah, it got chilly and windy in hurry


Wasnt a good spot to be in a Hi Profile Vehicle.

A lotta truckers have to deal with sudden wind.

It dont give much warning from ya flanks

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I believe that invest 92 is gone with the wind
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From Jeff's entry above

This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning.

92L Floater - Visible Loop
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Quoting Patrap:


Microburst or a straight line td..?

Bet that was Hairy,..eh



I believe it was just straight line winds, as it was form the gust front at the leading edge of the storms.

but yeah, it got chilly and windy in hurry
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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