Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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41mph winds reported at sarasota airport,.75 inchess of rain as well,summertime pattern starting to make its presence felt in SWFL!!!!!
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here is a picture of dennis first band that came thru, and it didnt even hit us.

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614. JRRP
Quoting SavannahStorm:


The caption to this photo was:

"Gov. Charlie Crist checks a Florida beach for signs of oil"

nice picture
see you later
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wonder about Meeks, whether the fact that he is the only candidate for governor in Florida who opposed offshore oil drilling from day 1. Whether that will help him.


Have you seen the latest polls? Meek is a virtual unknown in Florida. He may not even win the primary as his opponent is polling only 2 points behind him. It's really a race between tea-bagger Rubio and Crist. My vote is for Crist. Meek doesn't have a shot.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Good afternoon!!!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Some of the ads for properties here really come up to the line. I remember a few years ago an ad for Coast Cottages in The Wall Street Journal (a strange looking, but very expensive development on the beach) that said "The Georgia Coast is uniquely safe from hurricanes. The Georgia coast did not have even a single major hurricane landfall during the 1900s."

Technically true----but very misleading I thought.


I've seen stuff like that in the Tampa/St. Pete area. Crazy.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting JRRP:
another one ??


Is that an old model, i couldn't find another storm forming in June?
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Yeehah! a naked swirly thing. Pleasure to a sailboat skipper, may they all end this way!
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http://www.accuweather.com/video/95710851001/weekend-worries-in-haiti.asp
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**REPOST**
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-EImages made by Cyclonekid

Tracking (No Satellite):

Tracking (Satellite):

Forecast:

Advisories:
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It couldn't be helped, but John Hope's loss was a big part of The Weather Channel's decline.


Agreed. I can't really remember the last time I watched TWC.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Georgia's hurricane history is very weird.


We had 7 major hurricanes make landfall during the 1800s. During the 1900s we had none.

I see ads for houses and condos here, and they talk about how rare hurricanes are. They don't come out and say destructive hurricanes are impossible here, but it is just, just.

There is a popular misconception that major hurricanes are impossible in Georgia. Especially since we have had several instances when 3-4 days out Cat 4 landfalls were forecast (Floyd, Frances) and a Cat 3 landfall (Emily, 1993) There are a lot of people, especially those who have lived here for a long time, who won't leave---thinking a hurricane will turn away at the last minute. Especially those who experienced or heard about the Floyd evacuation snafu, people trapped in cars on the highways, 10 hours, 20 hours.

The Georgia coast is not densely populated, but I have a feeling that when a major hurricane does come a lot of people will be killed because they won't leave.


I totally agree. After the Floyd fiasco probably 50% of the city of Savannah won't leave. In a major hurricane, many of them will die.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:

Is that by THE John Hope?


Yes. See this from Wiki.

"In 1968, Hope began working for the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. While at the center, Hope began receiving recognition for his technical achievements in hurricane forecasting."

He subsequently joined the Weather Channel in 1982.
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The caption to this photo was:

"Gov. Charlie Crist checks a Florida beach for signs of oil"
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Severe storms in Hillsborough County northwest of Tampa.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Good Afternoon all. Not trying to advertise or anything, but Joe Bastardi is going to be on the radio at the top of this hour. (He;s on a national radio talk-show that rymes with Hhawn Sannity....)

ADMIN: Please don't ban me for referencing a conservative talk show. IT is most certainly tropic weather related.
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Florida hasn't had a east coast strike at all since 2005. We are way overdue even for a ts.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
PR DISCUSSION :

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS IS TO
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FRI. NE WINDS SHOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVR THE
SOUTH COAST FRI AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED AXIS INDICATED IN ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SAT WITH MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE TO ENCROACH
THE AREA. MODELS STILL SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WAVE AXIS BUT ALL AGREE THAT WE SHOULD SEE SIG RAINS SAT-SAT NIGHT.
12Z ECWMF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AND 12Z GFES ENSEMBLE MEAN RIGHT OVR PR. ALL 12Z BAM MODELS SHOW
VORTEX PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTING THAT HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
OCCUR IN OUR VICINITY. SO OVERALL MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
WILL SEE SIG RAINS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS.


We need that rain!
>
we do too
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Quoting kmanislander:
And just like that there was a great calm upon the blog. 92L races away defrocked but will it arise again to excite the mind of man ??.

This and more in the next episode of " As the Blog Turns "
Have you seen the models forcasting the energy needed for 92L to get its act together, once it gets past the shear?
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I have a dumb question. I see in the EPAC, we have TD2E and Invest 93E. They are within 2 or 3 tenths of a degree from each other. Why are they classified as different systems when they are virtually on top of each other? Aren't they basically the same system?
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Quoting kanc2001:


speaking in pure climatology FL and NC are most likely to get hit on the east coast, SC third and GA 4th... I assuming by your numbers you are going against climatology this season?


Numbers provided by Ouija Board...typical when a statement like that is made without data to back it. Not put off, I'm just sayin'

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Quoting kanc2001:


speaking in pure climatology FL and NC are most likely to get hit on the east coast, SC third and GA 4th... I assuming by your numbers you are going against climatology this season?


He must think it's just "our turn." May that day never come...

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Quoting kmanislander:
And just like that there was a great calm upon the blog. 92L races away defrocked but will it arise again to excite the mind of man ??.

This and more in the next episode of " As the Blog Turns "
I got this feeling and an itch that it will. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PR DISCUSSION :

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS IS TO
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FRI. NE WINDS SHOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVR THE
SOUTH COAST FRI AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED AXIS INDICATED IN ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SAT WITH MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE TO ENCROACH
THE AREA. MODELS STILL SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WAVE AXIS BUT ALL AGREE THAT WE SHOULD SEE SIG RAINS SAT-SAT NIGHT.
12Z ECWMF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AND 12Z GFES ENSEMBLE MEAN RIGHT OVR PR. ALL 12Z BAM MODELS SHOW
VORTEX PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTING THAT HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
OCCUR IN OUR VICINITY. SO OVERALL MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
WILL SEE SIG RAINS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS.


We need that rain!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I thought it would be interesting to post the tropical storm Ana discussions from 1979.



I guess someone sat down at a typewriter to do that? LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
With current factors and forecasts (Also in part because I'm bored) I'm going to give a hurricane landfall possibility by state.

North Carolina: 35%
South Carolina: 40%
Georgia: 45%
Florida: 80%
Alabama: 50%
Mississippi: 60%
Louisiana: 60%
Texas: 60%

Ok. Now back to lurking...


speaking in pure climatology FL and NC are most likely to get hit on the east coast, SC third and GA 4th... I assuming by your numbers you are going against climatology this season?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:

Is that by THE John Hope?
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And just like that there was a great calm upon the blog. 92L races away defrocked but will it arise again to excite the mind of man ??.

This and more in the next episode of " As the Blog Turns "
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How long can the LLC last under that wind shear?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think 92L still has a chance to develop it is just lower that before but it can 92L has been going against all odds as 92L grew then Doc put up blog that it could become TD1 then it becomes weak then Doc says that it will die then it redevelops almost becomes TD1 and weakens I expect it to redevelop and maybe make it this time even thou shear is a little on the high side it is decreasing I think it will enter the Caribbean and develop 92l is the little system that could and can amd will 92L the fighter ok I get it it is now exposed buy that can change



Dude lay off the caffine. LOL
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think 92L still has a chance to develop it is just lower that before but it can 92L has been going against all odds as 92L grew then Doc put up blog that it could become TD1 then it becomes weak then Doc says that it will die then it redevelops almost becomes TD1 and weakens I expect it to redevelop and maybe make it this time even thou shear is a little on the high side it is decreasing I think it will enter the Caribbean and develop 92l is the little system that could and can amd will 92L the fighter ok I get it it is now exposed buy that can change



I'm sorry but It's kind of hard to understand what you're saying since you didn't use periods, it's just like one really long sentence. And on the note, good bye, be back later.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
572. xcool
boreddddddddd here
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think 92L still has a chance to develop it is just lower that before but it can 92L has been going against all odds as 92L grew then Doc put up blog that it could become TD1 then it becomes weak then Doc says that it will die then it redevelops almost becomes TD1 and weakens I expect it to redevelop and maybe make it this time even thou shear is a little on the high side it is decreasing I think it will enter the Caribbean and develop 92l is the little system that could and can amd will 92L the fighter ok I get it it is now exposed buy that can change



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570. xcool


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569. xcool
hmm
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Everybody gone?

The basin is quite... that's boring.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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