Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Where's the Experts????? They should make things more interesting...
Not an expert but I can make the blog interesting, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Post #633.

Haha. I think it does.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Remind me to make sure I have a shirt on in Charlie Christ's presence. Long sleeved. And a hat. And scarf. Sheesh.


What? You gonna give up advertising?
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
5:00 pm EDT Advisory: GRAPHICS UPDATE
STORM TRACK:


ADVISORIES:
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Quoting aspectre:
I took that into consideration, and decided that the pores within the crude deposit near the pipe intake are also being gradually clogged by such particles; at least enough to balance any pipe-widening due to scouring thus far.

Ah, but the reservoir is not really tough rocks w/pores, but weak, friable rock that can be damaged just by the oil/gas mix passing through. So there are channels getting "etched" into the rock, not pores filling up. The Oil Drum recently did a post on this.
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AccuWeather forecast on invest 92
Link
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Link
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659. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP022010
21:00 PM UTC June 16 2010
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Two (1007 hPa) located at 15.0N 95.8W or 60 NM southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 15.3N 97.6W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 15.7N 99.6W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.0N 101.5W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
=====================================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO MEXICO
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Link
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we will see one soon enjoy !!
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a href="" target="_blank">Link
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Quoting btwntx08:
check my radar here the squall from mexico made it here raining good right now


I'm in Reynosa, MX.......right on the edge of the squall, for now.
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Quoting Patrap:
.."itsa crude, crude Summer"..


....leaving me here on my own
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have a good night everybody!!
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Quoting weathersp:


Fray'ed so... <(Its a pun!)



That was just wrong...please have respect for the recently departed... :)
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:D
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Quoting Relix:
So 92L has passed away?


Fray'ed so... <(Its a pun!)

Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Quoting Floodman:


Muahahaha...yup, "looking for oil"; that's apparently what they're calling it these days


He's dreamin' of drillin' for some crude...or is that crude?
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641. IKE
Houston, Texas (CNN) -- In the hours after a 2005 refinery explosion that left 15 people dead, a BP executive suggested a holiday weekend and the national furor over a Florida woman's last days would eclipse the tragedy.

With the oil company now battling to save an image tarnished by the worst oil spill in U.S. history, the lawyer who found that e-mail among a mountain of BP documents says nothing appears to have changed.

"Their strategy is the same every time ... And it's always, first, damage control," Brent Coon told CNN. "And with damage control, they accentuate the positive, downplay the negative, tell everybody they're sorry, they're gonna fix it, they're gonna do better, and not to worry."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
640. Relix
So 92L has passed away?
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Way to go Charlie, Gheeze
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.."itsa crude, crude Summer"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
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636. IKE
It was just a matter of time here in the Florida panhandle/from the oil volcano...Okaloosa County,FL...

" Staff Reports
Daily News

3 p.m. - The county health department is advising people to stay out of the water, according to a press release.

People are urged to avoid all contact with the water on Okaloosa Island from Eglin property to the eastern boundary of Beasley Park, the Okaloosa County Health Department release reads. "No wading, swimming, or entering the water.""
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting ElConando:


I think that puts to rest the accusation of his sexual orientation.

i thought that too, maybe not.
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194 hendric "One thing you have to realize is that the oil&gas has sand entrained with it, and that sand is acting as a sandblasting agent, widening the narrowest point (probably somewhere in the BOP). So it is totally possible that each flow rate estimate is accurate at the time. The flow rate will continue to go up until the reservoir at the bottom starts lowering pressure."

I took that into consideration, and decided that the pores within the crude deposit near the pipe intake are also being gradually clogged by such particles; at least enough to balance any pipe-widening due to the scouring thus far.

I really do try to remain conservative when calculating minimum spill rates, eg:
I've seen estimates of the increase in flow rate after the cutting of the BlowoutPreventer pipe as low as "4to5%". If one were to assume that there was a 5% increase, then the pre-cut flow rate (and pre-cut spill rate) would have been 20/21sts of 35,000barrels per day, or 33,333barrels per day.
Instead I used a 20% increase from "up to 20%" to derive a significantly lower minimum pre-cut spill rate of 29,166barrels per day.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think he was necessarily looking for oil at the instance, :).


I think that puts to rest the accusation of his sexual orientation.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


The caption to this photo was:

"Gov. Charlie Crist checks a Florida beach for signs of oil"


Muahahaha...yup, "looking for oil"; that's apparently what they're calling it these days
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92L Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546


You can definitely see the surface circulation tored apart from the upper level circulation.

Just a quick question, if this surface circulation goes throw the shear, could it reincarnate?
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Hey guys, 92L is not looking too good. Wind shear got the better of it, FTP and Dvorak numbers are down. I highly doubt it'll survive the shear, but this has always surprised us.
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Quoting kanc2001:


speaking in pure climatology FL and NC are most likely to get hit on the east coast, SC third and GA 4th... I assuming by your numbers you are going against climatology this season?
I just looked at previous seasons such as this one in terms of NAO (The location of the B/A high) and Florida and the rest of the GOM coast are at the highest risk. Also most of the time that a hurricane hits the GOM coast it usually went through Florida first so you have to take that into consideration. The best analog in terms of NAO is 1960, and for those that recall Category 5 hurricane Donna hit south Florida that year from Africa so, you get it.
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Quoting JRRP:

nice picture
see you later



Umm... See you, too!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I would go for Christ, unless Meek had a chance. If Meek puts out ads showing that he was the only one who consistently opposed offshore drilling in Florida waters, it may help him.

Jacksonville commercials are all for or against Rick Scott.


You've got mail.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


The caption to this photo was:

"Gov. Charlie Crist checks a Florida beach for signs of oil"
I don't think he was necessarily looking for oil at the instance, :).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Joe Bastardi on national radio right now discussing GOM tropical weather and the oil spill. ('Hean Sannity' radio -wink)
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Quoting FloridaPanhandler:
I have a dumb question. I see in the EPAC, we have TD2E and Invest 93E. They are within 2 or 3 tenths of a degree from each other. Why are they classified as different systems when they are virtually on top of each other? Aren't they basically the same system?


They are actually the same system. For some reason WU is slow in removing 93E lol
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sarasota has still never had a recorded major landfall!!!!,look where we are,it almost seems long overdue....
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41mph winds reported at sarasota airport,.75 inchess of rain as well,summertime pattern starting to make its presence felt in SWFL!!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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