Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


I do, if it survives the shear. Yesterday, 92L was doing well as it started interacting with the TUTT. This is why the nice burst of convection took place. However, once it met with the shear, it fell apart. If its COC can survive the rest of this week, I believe it has a chance, especially in the western Caribbean and GOMEX.
Disagree on what caused the MCS and later MCC yesterday. The TUTT in part helped fire some of the convection from last night but didn't do it completely, that convection burst was actually caused by vertical instability within 92L as the eastern quadrant was under 27˚C waters and the western quadrant of 92L was under 29˚C waters.

Do I expect 92L to survive after it passes the TUTT? Not at the moment no, why? Although the equatorial ridge will push the TUTT to the west and north I just don't see 92L getting passed the 30-50 knot shear, at least with its circulation in tact. At the moment I don't think 92L will be more than a rain event for the islands and possibly Florida in the long-run.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
92L's CoC is about to enter 40 kt and 50 kt. shear. Lets see how it goes...
The shear is not moving N as expected?
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


I do, if it survives the shear. Yesterday, 92L was doing well as it started interacting with the TUTT. This is why the nice burst of convection took place. However, once it met with the shear, it fell apart. If its COC can survive the rest of this week, I believe it has a chance, especially in the western Caribbean and GOMEX.
I saw the Models for the GOM earlier 6-7 days from now and it didnt look good for N GOM!
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Quoting xcool:
bored tropical .we need 93l now
You can always go back and re-read the blogs from previous years to sort of re-live the excitement from a rapidly intensifying or land-falling cyclone. The ones from the Katrina time are highly recommended. They include real drama and some blog drama as well.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Sadly, no. 92L is done for a while...
Do you think it has a chance to redevelope after the shear?
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Again my awful brother
maybe we'll get Alex in a week things will be completely different then
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sorry that was my moronic brother and his dumb friend they probably won't pass middle school.
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Quoting cg2916:


I don't expect 92L to last much longer. Even if the LLC survives, it'll be a naked swirl, maybe less.
Wont the naked swirl be helped by DMAX?
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Wind shear has totally screwed over 92L. Even if it somehow holds together, it's gonna be a while before any recovery happens.

I think what's left of CoC is somewhere between 53w and 54w (moving fast actually), and the clouds left over from this morning are all sheared way to the east of it and about to die.


I don't expect 92L to last much longer. Even if the LLC survives, it'll be a naked swirl, maybe less.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Remind me to make sure I have a shirt on in Charlie Christ's presence. Long sleeved. And a hat. And scarf. Sheesh.


haha!
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701. xcool
92L WAS TD
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92L LLC is not giving up and I feel like we will be tracking a TC soon after it makes it around the shear. This is an African low, they dont give up easy.
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Looks like "Wanna be Alex" is getting a good spanky from the wind shear now. That's good. :)
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Debby...your wrong. There is very high likelihood of seeing a TS at the end of this month. If not, early July is when we will have our first storm. The TUTT, you know?, the thing causing the high shear, will be moving out, and Dry Air doesn't rule the Caribbean. The Caribbean is actually very moist, and we are bound to see something before the End of July, I can guarantee that.
Quoting xaratanga:
Thank you allstar for the graphics on TD2e.
Dr. Masters, and all you knowledgeable blog members, please post more info on the East Pacific tropical weather, the Atlantic and Gulf get all the attention and I feel like the ugly stepsister. I know what goes on down here doesn't impact the US that much, but there are over 1 million of us US citizens living in Mexico, and a lot of us would like more info on whats happening here. Please....pretty please!!!!!


You could probably find a blog that covers your area. This is a majority of the atlantic basin.
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Quoting AllStar17:
**REPOST**
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
5:00 pm EDT Advisory: GRAPHICS UPDATE
STORM TRACK:


ADVISORIES:
You always do better than me :D Well I try...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
Images made by Cyclonekid

Tracking Maps:



Projected Path:


Advisories:
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695. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PORTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU...THEN ACROSS THE SW WATERS THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND INTO NICARAGUA SAT. A SMALL 1012 MB
LOW CENTER NEAR 15N52.5W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT
MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THU AND
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRI. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REACH 55W LATE FRI AND
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


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693. JLPR2
Quoting cg2916:


Look at that, it is not doing well. It's lost its organization, it's losing convection, I don't know why looking at the satellite loop it decided to stretch out N-S. It has outflow to the E, not good.

I've noticed that the "wall" Miami pointed out earlier is still there. You know what, I'm starting to wonder if that "wall" is made of concrete because shear hasn't started actually tearing the storms off like classic shear.


The convection wasn't able to pass a certain Lat point.
Cool, LOL!
XD
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92L is dead for now, there's time for zombies later but right now there is a tropical depression in the east pacific which is more than what's formed in the Atlantic all year so I suggest we pay attention to it.
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92L's far from dead,its a open wave and if sheer drops off,regeneration is not out of the question IMO...
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Thank you allstar for the graphics on TD2e.
Dr. Masters, and all you knowledgeable blog members, please post more info on the East Pacific tropical weather, the Atlantic and Gulf get all the attention and I feel like the ugly stepsister. I know what goes on down here doesn't impact the US that much, but there are over 1 million of us US citizens living in Mexico, and a lot of us would like more info on whats happening here. Please....pretty please!!!!!
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Quoting DEKRE:


It would be interesting to know what a persons sexual preference has to do with his capacity to do a job.

Bloody hypocrites


Well said
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Wow!LLC of 92L racing away around 15/52.8, I think if it was a bit closer to land it might have been upgraded to a TD, I've seen 1-2 upgraded in the matter of hours just because it was near land, just my opinion
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
687. DEKRE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Remind me to make sure I have a shirt on in Charlie Christ's presence. Long sleeved. And a hat. And scarf. Sheesh.


It would be interesting to know what a persons sexual preference has to do with his capacity to do a job.

Bloody hypocrites
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
Quoting Floodman:


Muahahaha...yup, "looking for oil"; that's apparently what they're calling it these days


Well the young lady in the pic. did seem to have some oil on, 'course it was probably Hawaiian tropic.....
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**REPOST**
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
5:00 pm EDT Advisory: GRAPHICS UPDATE
STORM TRACK:


ADVISORIES:
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Wonder why SPC still has a slight risk over central PA when we aren't going get much more of anything. Must be a precaution.
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Quoting xcool:
bored tropical .we need 93l now

We have an invest and a TD in the EPAC.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046


Look at that, it is not doing well. It's lost its organization, it's losing convection, I don't know why looking at the satellite loop it decided to stretch out N-S. It has outflow to the E, not good.

I've noticed that the "wall" Miami pointed out earlier is still there. You know what, I'm starting to wonder if that "wall" is made of concrete because shear hasn't started actually tearing the storms off like classic shear.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
681. xcool
Floodman haha
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Quoting xcool:
bored tropical .we need 93l now


What, is your DS dead?
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678. xcool
bored tropical .we need 93l now
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not necessarily. To make this really gory the wind shear is slowly peeling 92L's skin, and now all that's left are its bones (the LLC).


It's naked now.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not necessarily. To make this really gory the wind shear is slowly peeling 92L's skin, and now all that's left are its bones (the LLC).


yes, that's much more colorfull, thank you lol :)
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Quoting BaltOCane:
It's being decapitated, poor thing.
Not necessarily. To make this really gory the wind shear is slowly peeling 92L's skin, and now all that's left are its bones (the LLC).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting SQUAWK:


What? You gonna give up advertising?


Hell, I thought he was a guy...
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It's being decapitated, poor thing.
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92L should be stripped of its invest status as it is now just a naked swirl, all the convection was left far east of the LLC. Movement towards the west is about 18 miles per hour.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Not taking shear well at all.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Where's the Experts????? They should make things more interesting...
Not an expert but I can make the blog interesting, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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