Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
Serious drama on the blog!

And I'm drinking Maxwell House Light. Where's my popcorn and Coke?
LMAO! I'm just watching I've had a good chuckle so far.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Shredded Wheat with Fresh Blackberries here Ike..


Skim Milk..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
765. IKE
Serious drama on the blog!

And I'm drinking Maxwell House Light. Where's my popcorn and Coke?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


There weren't any sightings of this critter were there?

LOL! No but there seems to be a stalker on here right now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Be careful all you can be bashed for laughing in here today. Its the calm after the storm, sorta speak
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time to deactivate 92L now imo, if its not already deactivated, to be honest i didn't check , although the LLC is trucking westward a little past 53W, I don't think its any hope left for it at this stage, I still think we may get at least one TS in the Western caribbean before the end June, still 2 weeks left in the month.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Evening........Been busy all afternoon (still at the office) and just refreshed my satt loop; looks like 92L finally giving up the ghost...It was a good ride; maybe they should retire "92L".... :)
LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I started keeping weather records at my house in November 2003, and our highest shade temp was 36.0 C / 96.8 F in August 2007. The past couple days we exceeded that temp twice.

June 14 98.4 F / 36.9 C
June 15 97.3 F / 36.3 C

Not pleasant. Not a house record I am looking forward to breaking either.

That's incredible!!
The Heat has been really oppressive all over the Tropics this year.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
Quoting wfyweather:


I know you very well cody fields. everyone that really hates you and knows you cant forecast. thats why nobody allows u to forecast for their sites.
Woah woah woah, no stalkers on this site please.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Evening........Been busy all afternoon (still at the office) and just refreshed my satt loop; looks like 92L finally giving up the ghost...It was a good ride; maybe they should retire "92L".... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Sounds like YOU had the bad day, man.
Go outside, kick a wall or something.
LOL! Today has been a bad day on the blog. It was boring and well you get it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
751. MiamiHurricanes09
11:13 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Obviously you dont know me well...
Lol, he might of mixed up the equatorial ridge and subtropical ridge, it can happen.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
749. pottery
11:11 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting wfyweather:


Dude I know you. You didn't have a bad afternoon, you just DIDN'T know! Stop playing like your an expert! God! I hate people that do that! It is ok to not know!

Sounds like YOU had the bad day, man.
Go outside, kick a wall or something.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
746. MiamiHurricanes09
11:08 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Latest Update On Tropical Depression 2-E



TD 2-E is showing signs of intensification as in the last 2 hours convection has began to expand, it has acquired a better structure, and colder cloud tops can be noted around the COC. Current wind shear is only about 5 knots around the system as there is a strong anticyclone aloft as seen by latest Cimss shear maps.

Current motion associated with TD 2-E is northwestward at around 3 miles per hour, I expect this trend to continue. TD 2-E will likely be upped a little in the 5:00 PM PST advisory.

-MiamiHurricanes09
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
745. cg2916
11:08 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
We need to start focusing on the EPAC. 92L will be gone for either a while or forever, and we have a TD and high code orange in the EPAC.

TD 2-E:



92E:

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
744. pottery
11:05 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Hot!

A nice "cool" one today with showers and pretty skies.
Max. 93F at my house. But it felt cooler than that.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
743. scott39
11:01 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


A wave is an area of disorganized convection and little organization. There can be gusty winds in the thunderstorms associated with the system, but all together, its just an area of thunderstorms and heavy rain.

An Invest is a little more organized. It can have disorganized or organized convection, and Wind Speeds are usually in the 25-30 m/h range. There can be a well-defined circulation, but it has to sustain it.

A Tropical Depression has wind speeds generally between 30-39 m/h, with organized convection/thunderstorms and a well-defined surface circulation. It has to sustain its convection for about a day though to be classified as this.
Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
742. pottery
11:01 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Good evening Pottery. I'll take a look at the landcane. I still can't stop thinking about that snake plant of your's btw. What kind of seeds does that thing have?

LOL.
Not seeds! Propagation is by digging-up and replanting one of it's 'corms'. like a large Yam. Tuber type thing.
Edible, so they say. But I never tried.

So, this begs the question--what is the 'flower' for? I know it is pollenated by flies (thats why it smells bad, to attract them).
The 'flower' (the correct term is Inflorescence) has Male and Female parts. I am not sure about the Biology of the thing.
The 'flower' only lasts 2 days before it sort of melts into a heap of sludge.
I notice another 2 are opening today...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
741. scott39
11:00 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


A wave is an area of disorganized convection and little organization. There can be gusty winds in the thunderstorms associated with the system, but all together, its just an area of thunderstorms and heavy rain.

An Invest is a little more organized. It can have disorganized or organized convection, and Wind Speeds are usually in the 25-30 m/h range. There can be a well-defined circulation, but it has to sustain it.

A Tropical Depression has wind speeds generally between 30-39 m/h, with organized convection/thunderstorms and a well-defined surface circulation. It has to sustain its convection for about a day though to be classified as this.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
An open wave is just a wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms with no well defined circulation.

An Invest is just an area of concern to the NHC as it has a possibility to develop. Usually the NHC looks for a well-defined circulation and organized showers to classify it as an invest.

And finally a tropical depression is a closed surface low with organized showers and thunderstorms. Although 30+ mile an hour winds are not necessary for a system to be classified as a TD, it definitely plays a role on whether or not it does deserve classification.
Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
740. Patrap
11:00 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
French flash floods kill 20
By the CNN Wire Staff
June 16, 2010 -- Updated 2055 GMT (0455 HKT)


Paris, France (CNN) -- Flash floods killed at least 20 people in the southern French region of Var, French authorities said Wednesday.

The flooding began Tuesday, and more storms were expected Wednesday evening, the Var prefecture said in a statement.

Authorities warned of "possible intense rain and thunderstorms, sometimes violent in the coastal area."

Eleven helicopters worked overnight to rescue people and 1,000 people have been placed in shelters, the prefecture said. Some 1,200 firefighters and 650 police officers were taking part in the rescue effort, it said.

All schools in the region were closed Wednesday and more than 96,000 people were without electricity.

Authorities earlier said 12 people were missing, but by the end of the day they said all the missing had been found, either alive or dead.

Var includes the Cote d'Azur, a popular tourist destination along the French Riviera.

CNN's Saskya Vandoorne and Pat Thompson contributed to this report.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
739. MiamiHurricanes09
10:57 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Well i dont know all the met terminology, please tell me how it goes from a wave to a invest and then a TD.
An open wave is just a wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms with no well defined circulation.

An Invest is just an area of concern to the NHC as it has a possibility to develop. Usually the NHC looks for a well-defined circulation and organized showers to classify it as an invest.

And finally a tropical depression is a closed surface low with organized showers and thunderstorms. Although 30+ mile an hour winds are not necessary for a system to be classified as a TD, it definitely plays a role on whether or not it does deserve classification.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
737. CosmicEvents
10:53 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening all.
Take a look at the Ginormous Wave over west/central Africa (inland still).
Conditions are more favourable in the Trop.Atl. now than they were a week ago.
Could be our next "intrigue" in the Atlantic.??
Good evening Pottery. I'll take a look at the landcane. I still can't stop thinking about that snake plant of your's btw. What kind of seeds does that thing have?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5531
736. CaicosRetiredSailor
10:53 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting pottery:
How are things up your end, CRS?


Hot!
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
735. robert88
10:52 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Looks like we got a nice MJO pulse coming through sometime between the 25th of June and July 9th. We should have a couple names storms in about 3 weeks. When all this energy in the E Pacific comes to a halt it will be flipping over to the Atlantic side for a while.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
734. MiamiHurricanes09
10:52 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Thanks for correcting me...again. Had a bad afternoon...
Lol, but since you got me interested in what the subtropical ridge is I will like to explain for those who have not a clue.

The subtropical ridge is a belt of high pressure situated in the horse latitude (30˚N and 30˚S) that acts as a steering component for tropical cyclones. The air from the subtropical ridge flows outward towards the equator (in summer causing trade winds) and poleward (in winter causing prevailing westerlies). The ENSO greatly affects the location of the subtropical ridge as La Niña's push the subtropical ridge northward, and the El Niño does the opposite. These subtropical ridges in the Atlantic are called the Bermuda/Azores high.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
733. IKE
10:51 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
18Z GFS through July 2nd...not much. It takes the moisture from the soon-to-be remnant 92L into south Florida as a wave. Shows other areas of low pressure out in the central Atlantic but doesn't do much with them.

18Z NOGAPS through June 22nd...kills off the remains of 92L by the time it reaches Haiti/DR. Shows other vorticity in the Caribbean and Atlantic. Nothing real strong or eye-opening.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
732. pottery
10:51 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
How are things up your end, CRS?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
731. scott39
10:51 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The energy? Well it will need very favorable conditions and lots of time to develop because it doesn't make convection or a circulation, just the energy.
Well i dont know all the met terminology, please tell me how it goes from a wave to a invest and then a TD.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
730. CosmicEvents
10:49 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Probability time (This is for the next 48 hours, starting tomorrow):

Invest: 10%

Tropical Depression: 2%

Tropical Storm: 1%

Hurricane: 0%

Major Hurricane: 0%

Dying: 95%


That adds up to 108%.
You can't go over 100%, no matter what you prophesize.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5531
729. CaicosRetiredSailor
10:49 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
728. MiamiHurricanes09
10:46 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting scott39:
If the LLC is disrupted with 92L and becomes and open wave, can it pick up on all that energy in the W/carribean and SE GOM and rapidly form?
The energy? Well it will need very favorable conditions and lots of time to develop because it doesn't make convection or a circulation, just the energy.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
726. stormmasterg92
10:45 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Increasing risk for significant tornados in western south dakota. Combo of veering and increasing flow fields with height are yielding 35 to 45 kt bulk shear and given strong low level surface to 3km shear and maximized low level cape a few strong tornados could occur from now till 10pm.
725. scott39
10:44 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
If the LLC is disrupted with 92L and becomes and open wave, can it pick up on all that energy in the W/carribean and SE GOM and rapidly form?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
723. MiamiHurricanes09
10:43 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting cg2916:


Do you think the LLC could survive? I don't, not under 50 kt shear.
Well I just explained it in the post you previously quoted, lol; the answer is no.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
722. MiamiHurricanes09
10:42 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Wind Shear is unfavorable now across most of the Caribbean and Central Atlantic. However, the TUTT is lifting out as the Subtropical Ridge builds back in, and by next week, Shear shouldn't be a problem. Next week, the strong upward pulse of the MJO will also be coming back in, and with favorable conditions, I wouldn't be surpirsed to see an area to watch like 92L by next weekend. Sometime between the 20th and the 28th is when I believe we will get our first storm, with many more after that. I'm going to go out on a limb and say by Jule 20th, we have already had Alex, Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle. I see no reason why one or more of this systems will become hurricanes, especially in the Caribbean, when TCHP is unreal. We really need to watch the next coming off weeks, because thats when the hurricane season should really kick off.



I believe you're talking about the equatorial ridge, the subtropical ridge is the A/B high. And the equatorial ridge will be strengthening and pushing the TUTT into the eastern Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic. So far I have yet to find evidence of a strong upward motion MJO, as all forecasts suggest that it should stay relatively weak (0.5-1.0 octets). And that prediction of 4 storms by July 20th seems like a little much, just a little, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
720. cg2916
10:40 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Disagree on what caused the MCS and later MCC yesterday. The TUTT in part helped fire some of the convection from last night but didn't do it completely, that convection burst was actually caused by vertical instability within 92L as the eastern quadrant was under 27˚C waters and the western quadrant of 92L was under 29˚C waters.

Do I expect 92L to survive after it passes the TUTT? Not at the moment no, why? Although the equatorial ridge will push the TUTT to the west and north I just don't see 92L getting passed the 30-50 knot shear, at least with its circulation in tact. At the moment I don't think 92L will be more than a rain event for the islands and possibly Florida in the long-run.


Do you think the LLC could survive? I don't, not under 50 kt shear.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
719. pottery
10:40 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Good Evening all.
Take a look at the Ginormous Wave over west/central Africa (inland still).
Conditions are more favourable in the Trop.Atl. now than they were a week ago.
Could be our next "intrigue" in the Atlantic.??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
717. MiamiHurricanes09
10:38 PM GMT on June 16, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


I do, if it survives the shear. Yesterday, 92L was doing well as it started interacting with the TUTT. This is why the nice burst of convection took place. However, once it met with the shear, it fell apart. If its COC can survive the rest of this week, I believe it has a chance, especially in the western Caribbean and GOMEX.
Disagree on what caused the MCS and later MCC yesterday. The TUTT in part helped fire some of the convection from last night but didn't do it completely, that convection burst was actually caused by vertical instability within 92L as the eastern quadrant was under 27˚C waters and the western quadrant of 92L was under 29˚C waters.

Do I expect 92L to survive after it passes the TUTT? Not at the moment no, why? Although the equatorial ridge will push the TUTT to the west and north I just don't see 92L getting passed the 30-50 knot shear, at least with its circulation in tact. At the moment I don't think 92L will be more than a rain event for the islands and possibly Florida in the long-run.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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