Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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even though 92L is back to a wave I still see the spin on the RGB floater that was a very good exposed COC now located at 15.2N 53.5W moving a tad north of west
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Quoting BaltOCane:
0% = yellow?
lol
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815. beell
I can just about guarantee that there is a 100% chance of a near 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation from 92L in the next 48 hrs.
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Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity




Dats a bad trend..for development.




Multi platform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity

From the Multi platform satellite wind analysis discussed above a flight level (~ 700 hPa) Kinetic Energy is calculated within 200km of the cyclone center. The calculated KE is then categorized (0-5) so that their probability distribution is identical to the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale (0-5). The KE is then plotted versus the maximum surface wind from these same wind analysis and provided every six hours. Tropical cyclones tend to grow as they weaken, but this is not always the case and large storms typically have larger values of KE and thus are more destructive when they affect land. This product allows the real-time monitoring of the potential destructive potential of a given storm and allows inter comparison with past events either produced on this web page or from actual flight level wind data. The methods for calculating and categorizing the KE as well as analyses of several past events are described in Maclay et al. (2008).
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


You have to read the discussion...near 0%


still... I mean, come on. near 0%?
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
Dvorak has gone poof as well.

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Humberto came from an ex-invest.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey Patrap it just seems to me that on that Sat it looks like that TUTT is starting to move west and north


All Low Level Swirls can be tough to diffuse away sometimes..so never say never till ya can.


Esp a tuff lil CV wave.

Itsa a swirl till it aint a swirl I always say.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 162344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION... THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN


Eh?
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LMAO.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Some of the ads for properties here really come up to the line. I remember a few years ago an ad for Coast Cottages in The Wall Street Journal (a strange looking, but very expensive development on the beach) that said "The Georgia Coast is uniquely safe from hurricanes. The Georgia coast did not have even a single major hurricane landfall during the 1900s."

Technically true----but very misleading I thought.


"uniquely safe" hah! I think they went over the line if that's what they said. Probably people had more important stuff to deal with, though, legally speaking.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 162344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION... THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
0% = yellow?
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 485
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It couldn't be helped, but John Hope's loss was a big part of The Weather Channel's decline.


John Hope may have known his stuff, but he was not entertaining. For what it's worth, Dr. Frank does have some considerable charisma. I've never heard/seen Joe Bastardi, but with a name like that I don't really wan to.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Patrap:
Say G'night 92L

Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
G'night 92L may you RIP
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Quoting cg2916:
A couple ASCAT images for 92E:





1st advisor was 45kts max 2nd 50kts, NHC suggest dont believe too much in SHIPS forecast.

Now ADT mark 30kts and position and conditions are very favorables to developed.

I think could be 1st hurricane of the Season.
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hey Patrap it just seems to me that on that Sat it looks like that TUTT is starting to move west and north
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 162340
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
500 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 96.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF OAXACA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting Patrap:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alright let me try.

Do you tink dat dem Saints gonna do it again dis year? Sept for dem haters that can't get a ring.


Now ya in da swing my friend..
Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Well I hear tell itsa Benson menu ..with a lotta local flair.

No Press allowed in tonight..

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alright let me try.

Do you tink dat dem Saints gonna do it again dis year? Sept for dem haters that can't get a ring.


Now ya in da swing my friend..
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hey stormpetrol well if 92L does survive I have an idea where it would go the models have made a big jump to the left and it condition favor in the W Caribbean then that is when we could have that TS that you said in you comments # 760

model run

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Quoting DEKRE:


Ouch!
It wasn't supposed to sound offensive.
Quoting msgambler:
It's da New Orleans Saints. It better be Crawfish, corn taters, shrimp, and beer
I hope so.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Say G'night 92L

Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting Patrap:


I clean up well for 50 young padawan.

Been waiting 43 years for tonight..since I was 7.

In a Galaxy far,far away...


And yas gotta start learning sum Cajun Cher..cuz we gonna kick it up a notch to TWO DAT this year


Alright let me try.

Do you tink dat dem Saints gonna do it again dis year? Sept for dem haters that can't get a ring.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Pat, Please do tell. The menu for the ring dance please! Weather is a bit slow now and I love a good food conversation.

Mid 80's and partly cloudy here. Kids are in the pool (88-F)...
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A couple ASCAT images for 92E:



Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I can imagine, from filet mignon to 5 pound Maine lobster. I see your grammar improved when you speak about da saints. I mean the super bowl champion Saints.
It's da New Orleans Saints. It better be Crawfish, corn taters, shrimp, and beer
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Quoting ElConando:
Well i'm going out tonight but if I was staying in... I'd have coke mixed with a hint of milk and some sprite and maybe some adult beverage.


Looks like a quiet rest of week in the Atl. At least the dedicated bloggers got something to track in the epac maybe even two. peace!
That sounds like it is rather disgusting.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I can imagine, from filet mignon to 5 pound Maine lobster. I see your grammar improved when you speak about da saints. I mean the super bowl champion Saints.


I clean up well for 50 young padawan.

Been waiting 43 years for tonight..since I was 7.

In a Galaxy far,far away...


And yas gotta start learning sum Cajun Cher..cuz we gonna kick it up a notch to TWO DAT this year


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784. DEKRE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I see your grammar improved when you speak about da saints.


Ouch!
Member Since: April 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
Well i'm going out tonight but if I was staying in... I'd have coke mixed with a hint of milk and some sprite and maybe some adult beverage.


Looks like a quiet rest of week in the Atl. At least the dedicated bloggers got something to track in the epac maybe even two. peace!
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Quoting Patrap:


Saints get their Super Bowl Rings here tonight at the Roosevelt Hotel.

The USMC Delivered them to the Hotel awhile ago from a Whitney Bank Vault.

You should see that Menu for the Dinner there.

I can imagine, from filet mignon to 5 pound Maine lobster. I see your grammar improved when you speak about da saints. I mean the super bowl champion Saints.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'll pass on that one, maybe some Crème fraiche with raspberries and some sugar.


Saints get their Super Bowl Rings here tonight at the Roosevelt Hotel.

The USMC Delivered them to the Hotel awhile ago from a Whitney Bank Vault.

You should see that Menu for the Dinner there.

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BBL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'll pass on that one, maybe some Crème fraiche with raspberries and some sugar.
Exactly what I wanted:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Patrap:
Shredded Wheat with Fresh Blackberries here Ike..


Skim Milk..
Glad I stayed in the room and out of the casino. More excitment in here. Now all I need is some Cocoa Puffs and Beer. Light beer gy the way. I am watching my weight....LOL
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Time to go.....See the regulars tommorow......Beam Me Up Mr. Scott.....
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Quoting wfyweather:


I am a stalker because i know him for who he really is? I think not! Also, I respect you for being 13 yet being a good forecaster. please dont show your immaturity.
Believe me I have no immaturity I just don't think it is appropriate to be having a conversation like the one you're having on a tropics blog. I'm not commenting further as this seems to be you guys' problem and not mine.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Our hottest day in history at the official KSSI station.

YOIKS!!
It has NEVER been over 98F here as far as I know.
My wife was in Florida last year when it was 104, and she says"never again"!!
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I think the invest was a TD.
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Quoting Patrap:
Shredded Wheat with Fresh Blackberries here Ike..

I'll pass on that one, maybe some Crème fraiche with raspberries and some sugar.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting masonsnana:
Be careful all you can be bashed for laughing in here today. Its the calm after the storm, sorta speak


That' why I looked up from the computer to check the weather and realized it was already 7:00 PM....I don't have windows where I have been working for past 4 hours and the building just got "bashed" by some thunder...Strong pop-up severe t-storm over Tallahassee right now.
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Quoting IKE:
Serious drama on the blog!

And I'm drinking Maxwell House Light. Where's my popcorn and Coke?
LMAO! I'm just watching I've had a good chuckle so far.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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