Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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867. SLU
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Might want to rewrite that book. It def was not a depression. Lacked way to many characteristics.


Which characteristics

92L had at some stages all at once:

- organised deep convection
- at least 25 - 30kts winds
- a closed circulation
- 1011mb air pressure (when the background pressure was about 1015mb)
- Dvorak classifications on T1.5/1.5 which is the minimum needed. TD #2E in the EPAC was numbered at T1.5/1.5 this afternoon

What more proof is needed of a TD

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Quoting IKE:
The good news...June is 14 days away from being over and the excuse, it's June...it's suppose to be quiet in the Atlantic, will be over.

Then it's....it's early July...it doesn't really get cranking until after the 15th of July.

Then it's...the season doesn't really start until August.

*** hope it stays quiet/quite.***


Ike, you're smarter than this.
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although the shear is blowin out the tops of the clouds, at the surface is helping to humidify the air in front of LLC, I think this will keep alive invest 92L.
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I have just posted my daily blog update. Please read and comment. It is greatly appreciated. Thanks!
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INV/92/L
FINAL MARK
15.1N/54.5W
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Pottery...

Sorry about my short reply earlier, just as I clicked on quote to type, a friend drove in. Then I saw you were out.

Not much happening to report... a quiet "Queen's Birthday" on Monday is about all.

CRS


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Quoting debbykat:
are you kidding slu 92L never reached tropical depression strength..didnt have a fcc and face it the nhc knows the game and they know what they are doing thats why they get paid the big bucks..debby

Thank you...been saying that for days but since a bunch of people say I agree just makes him/her feel like they truely are right. It did not meet all the criteria. Was it close, sure but never that close.
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858. IKE
The good news...June is 14 days away from being over and the excuse, it's June...it's suppose to be quiet in the Atlantic, will be over.

Then it's....it's early July...it doesn't really get cranking until after the 15th of July.

Then it's...the season doesn't really start until August.

*** hope it stays quiet/quite.***
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

WTPN51 PGTW 162200
WARNING ATCP MIL 02E NEP 100616204726
2010061618 02E TWO 001 01 310 05 SATL 060
T000 149N 0957W 025
T012 148N 0962W 030
T024 150N 0971W 030
T036 151N 0980W 035 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 155N 0993W 040 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 159N 1012W 045 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 160N 1035W 045
T120 166N 1065W 045
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (TWO) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN/161321Z JUN 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 95.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 95.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.8N 96.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.0N 97.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.1N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.5N 99.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.9N 101.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.0N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.6N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 95.9W.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 161321Z
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.
//
0210061500 141N 954W 20
0210061506 141N 954W 20
0210061512 142N 954W 20
0210061518 144N 954W 25
0210061600 145N 953W 25
0210061606 146N 953W 25
0210061612 146N 953W 25
0210061618 149N 957W 25
NNNN

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851. IKE
Quoting SLU:
16/2345 UTC 15.0N 53.6W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic

declared dead


Good...glad 92L is over...but I'll keep watching it, IF there's anything left to watch.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting debbykat:
the pacific is starting to get very active could be 2 storms forming in the next 48 hours..this does not look good for the caribbean when the pacific has and active season..that will keep the strong shear around until things calm down on the pacific side..debby


That may be the case currently, but it's as btwntx08 said, the East Pacific should begin to go below normal very soon. Recall that 2007 also started off very active there, and we ended up having one of the quietest seasons on record in the Pacific because of the presence of La Nina.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


That is what "they" said. I'm saying that now. Of course if we don't have a storm in 10-14 days I will push out my prediction and eventually I'll get it right.

I thought all forecasters did that.
LOL
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847. IKE
Quoting YourCommonSense:
Wake me up when there is something interesting in the tropics (Atlantic).


You should be well rested.


Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

That is what they said 10-14 days ago.


LOL. First it was after the 10th of June...then the last half of June.

I'm guilty of that too...I've already said development the last 5 days of June. Plus I said a named system in the GOM before July 1st.

I may have to push both of those dates back.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting SLU:
The eventual dissipation of 92L (which by the way was a tropical depression for at least 2 days in my books) doesn't take anything away from this season. Infact, the mere fact the the Atlantic was able to develop and sustain a system like this so early pretty much means that once the shear starts to decrease the party will begin in earnest. I do expect an Emily-like or a Bertha-like system by July.


Agreed.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


That is what "they" said. I'm saying that now. Of course if we don't have a storm in 10-14 days I will push out my prediction and eventually I'll get it right.

Haha fair enough.
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Quoting SLU:
The eventual dissipation of 92L (which by the way was a tropical depression for at least 2 days in my books) doesn't take anything away from this season. Infact, the mere fact the the Atlantic was able to develop and sustain a system like this so early pretty much means that once the shear starts to decrease the party will begin in earnest. I do expect an Emily-like or a Bertha-like system by July.

Might want to rewrite that book. It def was not a depression. Lacked way to many characteristics.
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840. SLU
16/2345 UTC 15.0N 53.6W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic

declared dead
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What is the point of circling an area that is considered to have 0% chance of becoming anything??

That sets the precedent to circle everything everywhere all the time.

Ridiculous!
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


10-14 days and things should pick up.

That is what they said 10-14 days ago.
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833. SLU
The eventual dissipation of 92L (which by the way was a tropical depression for at least 2 days in my books) doesn't take anything away from this season. Infact, the mere fact the the Atlantic was able to develop and sustain a system like this so early pretty much means that once the shear starts to decrease the party will begin in earnest. I do expect an Emily-like or a Bertha-like system by July.
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If history has taught us anything, naked swirls from CV waves always have to be watched with a slight glance over the shoulder every so often as long as they are over warm water.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
826. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 162344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION... THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN


92L will go down as the most talked about invest-only, to ever grace the WU main blog since it's inception.

Bye-bye 92L...you gave it your best. A near history-maker.

RIP
$$
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Near zero...oh man I bet this is making some people here hang onto hope. They should have just removed it. This system was done a long time ago.
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Link

in other news... this thing is talking about Blas.

Blah. Blas. Blah.


... I fixed it
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sorry I ment 15.0N 53.5W
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Quoting Patrap:


All Low Level Swirls can be tough to diffuse away sometimes..so never say never till ya can.


Esp a tuff lil CV wave.

Itsa a swirl till it aint a swirl I always say.



I remember Tropical Storm Kevin's swirl going on for a while in dry air last year in the EPAC.
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NEAR 0 PERCENT = that lovely shade of green that stormchaser2007 (i think) was speaking of
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even though 92L is back to a wave I still see the spin on the RGB floater that was a very good exposed COC now located at 15.2N 53.5W moving a tad north of west
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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