Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SLU:


It is the pressure gradient which determines the strength of the wind not the actual minimum air pressure within a system.

For instance. If 92L had a minimum pressure of 1010mb and the background pressure (the pressure in the surrounding environment) was 1015mb then the pressure gradient would be 4mb.

The same pressure gradient would exist if a system had a minimum pressure of 1007mb in an environment where the pressure is 1011mb. The gradient is still 4mb therefore both systems would theoretically be of the same intensity.

Yes...thanks for the lesson. PGF is Meteo 101. the lower the pressure at the center the more likely you have a stronger pressure gradient. If you ahve a 1015mb high to the north and a 998mb low to the south, your pressure gradient will be stronger than a 1010mb low pressing against it. Some of those winds readings could have just been from the downdraft from the convection near the center but again the convection was not very impressive.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i beg to differ
on or near noon sat jun 12 2010 a invest designated 92l
achieve T.C.F.A. status using a number point system total at time was 36
6 hrs later another count we reach 38 points
by 2 pm sun jun 13 2010 the point count exceeded 42 points
a T.C.F.W. should have been issued but never was NHC increased risk to 60 percent that afternoon early evening the system was alredy commencing the waning phase and the rest is history

and the history is
earliest cape verde type system to dev in the far east atl in jun
and may have been an all time record in basin
but was not regonize for what it was
do to climo and the fact that they could not believe what they were seeing
maybe it will be added in the end of the season

What would be the point in post-season analysis of this, anyway? I can think of more important/useful things to do...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Obviously. I would imagine that many of us here do not expect a repeat of 2005. I'd say a year like 1995 is very possible, though.

I think sometimes you guys seem to forget that June doesn't always contribute a named storm. Only once every other year, on average.

I think 2005 has spoiled a lot of you, tbqh. Just because a severe season is expected, does not at all mean that we have to have a named storm in June, or even the first half of July. Do you realize how easy it is to have several tropical cyclones develop in a period of a week? It's a cinch, provided we have the right conditions.

1995 still managed to make 19 storms and we only had one storm prior to July. Not to mention several unnamed depressions that year. Some people in here need to exercise patience.
Anyone want to argue with climo and the NHC now?

All storms have a lot going against development, a small percentage of waves in any given year have enough of the elements necessary to become a named entity, and those elements are fluid enough on a daily basis, and even sometimes on an hourly basis to change everything; once in a great while these changes lead to rapid intensification, but for the most it leads to declines in the organization necessary to produce or maintain named systems or a TD. All storms are dependent on many environmental factors that constantly change.

It would be great if someone with a lot more knowledge on the s\ubject than I have, made a list of the top ten or so elements needed for a storm to form and maintain, and that way for the next "92L" we could rate the feature by how many of the most important elements that said feature had going for it; the same could be done for negative elements. I guess I mean create a chart for development likelihood.

Hope all this makes sense, that way bloggers can use the list for making their arguments for or bagaint development or a system maintaining or gaining intensity.

Just my thoughts on the matter. I am tired of seeing people getting poofed or berated, when really neither they, nor the poofer back up there stance. Obviously some want storms, and others don't, but that is not justification for development or non development.

One last thought, maybe more time should be spent talking about why systems probably won't develop, because most waves won't, and that is a solid fact.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Invest 92L wasn't a Tropical Depression according to the NHC. That may change in the post-season analysis.

i beg to differ
on or near noon sat jun 12 2010 a invest designated 92l
achieve T.C.F.A. status using a number point system total at time was 36
6 hrs later another count we reach 38 points
by 2 pm sun jun 13 2010 the point count exceeded 42 points
a T.C.F.W. should have been issued but never was NHC increased risk to 60 percent that afternoon early evening the system was alredy commencing the waning phase and the rest is history

and the history is
earliest cape verde type system to dev in the far east atl in jun
and may have been an all time record in basin
but was not regonize for what it was
do to climo and the fact that they could not believe what they were seeing
maybe it will be added in the end of the season
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
911. SLU
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
as for the pressure...1011mb? Great. I have seen monsoon lows with way lower pressure than that. Just because it was closed at the surface also does not make it a depression.


It is the pressure gradient which determines the strength of the wind not the actual minimum air pressure within a system.

For instance. If 92L had a minimum pressure of 1010mb and the background pressure (the pressure in the surrounding environment) was 1015mb then the pressure gradient would be 4mb.

The same pressure gradient would exist if a system had a minimum pressure of 1007mb in an environment where the pressure is 1011mb. The gradient is still 4mb therefore both systems would theoretically be of the same intensity.
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910. MZV
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Invest 92L wasn't a Tropical Depression according to the NHC. That may change in the post-season analysis.


I doubt it. They had plenty of time to study it already. Alterations in the post-season tend to happen when there is a lot of action in the atmosphere and the NHC lets a few middling systems fall through the cracks.
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Quoting hydrus:
I do not want you to think I am hoping for a busy year. And I am fully aware that many people on the blog are predicting numbers well below the 05 numbers. I was pointing out that in 2005 there were 5 named storms before July 15.


Nor am I hoping for an active season.

But what kind of point were you trying to make by pointing that out?

So 2005 had five storms prior to July 15? Great, so what? This year doesn't need to repeat that. It will be active, I'd say at least on par with 2007, and in worse case scenario, 1995.
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SLU

I saw you comments about keeping track of the Tropical waves this year, and I think you might find the link below to a very comprehensive archive of satellite images of all the invests from 08 & 09 interesting. Unfortunately the effort is not continuing this year as far as I can tell.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/

CRS
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SLU we can agree to disagree. It is all good. Just hard to disagree with Mets that have PHDs and all they do is study these storms all year round for 10-20 years.
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906. IKE
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't think anyone is saying that we are going to have 28 storms like we had in 2005.


Blog has been flooded with charts comparing 2010 to 2005.

Quoting atmoaggie:

? We have had plenty of disaster-philes in here saying just that, or that it will be worse.

Why do you think they keep showing the TCHP for 2005 and current? (though the product is different)


Exactly. Tired of seeing them.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting SLU:


NOAA buoy 41041 recorded one-minute winds of 31.5kts (36mph) with a pressure of 1010mb and 12.5ft seas at about 21z yesterday as the center passed about 50 - 75 miles to the south. Those observations were made even before the convective detonation last night. So farless what the conditions were under the intense MCS last night which had cloud tops of -80C.

Have you ever studied an Atlas Low tracking through the Med Sea? Nice flow around the low, winds from SE to SW side pushing 50kts and pressure around 1002mb...hate to say it but that isnt a Trop Storm and those numbers beat the ones for 92L. It is about way more than just those numbers. Look in South America on a regular basis...-80C is not too rare.
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http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=UDX&product=N0S&overlay=11101111&loop=yes HUGE SOUTH DAKOTA TORNADO GREATER THAN 100 KT SHEAR IF IT WASN'T COUNTRY THIS WOULD LIKELY BE EF4 OR EF5 TORNADO BASED ON SHEAR.
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I thought Dr. Jeff did a Master-full job of laying to rest the "it should have been a TD" on his podcast yesterday. You can listen to it here
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't think anyone is saying that we are going to have 28 storms like we had in 2005.

? We have had plenty of disaster-philes in here saying just that, or that it will be worse.

Why do you think they keep showing the TCHP for 2005 and current? (though the product is different)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Obviously. I would imagine that many of us here do not expect a repeat of 2005. I'd say a year like 1995 is very possible, though.

I think sometimes you guys seem to forget that June doesn't always contribute a named storm. Only once every other year, on average.

I think 2005 has spoiled a lot of you, tbqh. Just because a severe season is expected, does not at all mean that we have to have a named storm in June, or even the first half of July. Do you realize how easy it is to have several tropical cyclones develop in a period of a week? It's a cinch, provided we have the right conditions.

1995 still managed to make 19 storms and we only had one storm prior to July. Not to mention several unnamed depressions that year. Some people in here need to exercise patience.
I do not want you to think I am hoping for a busy year. And I am fully aware that many people on the blog are predicting numbers well below the 05 numbers. I was pointing out that in 2005 there were 5 named storms before July 15.
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The blog is dying right along with 92L.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
899. SLU
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

There was not persistent deep convection and the convection wasnt that impressive. A lot of mid level clouds making it look nice on satellite with 3 or 4 true CBs. Also show me an ob that verifies that it had 30kts at the surface? You are talking about a so so satellite dervied wind that has had its shortfalls and false readings. Did not see a solid outflow. Showed it sometimes but not very long or often.


NOAA buoy 41041 recorded one-minute winds of 31.5kts (36mph) with a pressure of 1010mb and 12.5ft seas at about 21z yesterday as the center passed about 50 - 75 miles to the south. Those observations were made even before the convective detonation last night. So farless what the conditions were under the intense MCS last night which had cloud tops of -80C.
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This is what 92L had to look like for it to be a TD.

TD 2-E

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting SLU:


Ok .. well if that's the benchmark set for this season then I want them to remain just as consistent with each and every other disturbance this year and not name weaker, less organised looking systems just because they're close to land.

It isnt about looks...it is about values, facts, pressure readings all around the system. Wind bands. Where the convection is and is it organized. It is not about how pretty it looks on satellite.
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Quoting pottery:

LOL.
But seriously. To designate an area, and give it 0%, is very weird.
Why not drop it, and pick it up later if it needs to be?
LOL, I agree. It seems pointless, imagine someone that goes to the site and sees 0%, he'll probably be thinking like "WTH?".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting SLU:


Ok .. well if that's the benchmark set for this season then I want them to remain just as consistent with each and every other disturbance this year and not name weaker, less organised looking systems just because they're close to land.


I completely agree.
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893. Skyepony (Mod)
Flash floods kill 19 in southern France
Agence France-Presse
Posted at 06/17/2010 7:02 AM | Updated as of 06/17/2010 7:02 AM

DRAGUIGNAN, France – Rescuers airlifted survivors and searched for missing people in southern France Wednesday after heavy storms triggered flash floods that killed at least 19 people, officials said.

Nearly 2,000 rescue workers rushed in to help hundreds trapped in their vehicles, houses or on rooftops in the Draguignan area near the Mediterranean coast, while helicopters were sent in to airlift residents to safety.

Emergency teams also moved 436 inmates from a flooded prison in Draguignan where the water covered the first two floors and they were taken to nearby jails.

"I fear the (death) toll will go higher," said Interior Minister Brice Hortefeux, who visited the area to see for himself the extent of the damage by the floods that meteorologists said were the worst there since 1827.

Police warned people not to try to take out their cars because more bad weather was expected.

Heavy rains on Tuesday caused water levels to rise swiftly, preventing many people from fleeing to higher ground and forcing some to seek shelter on the roofs of their homes.

more here
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
My guess about the near 0% indicated in this evenings TWO is part of the "process of change" surrounding one of the PRODUCT CHANGES FOR THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON which have come into effect:

4)
The genesis forecasts for the risk of tropical cyclone development will be provided to nearest 10 percent, in both the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks. In previous years, only risk categories (low/medium/high) were given.


...perhaps even it was a forecasters "poke" at having to use this new format, who knows.

Could be...
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Quoting btwntx08:

oh so ur saying last night convection wasnt impressive to me it was lol

Last nights convection again was one or two storms making up a MCS. Seen better convection over Oklahoma.
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My guess about the near 0% indicated in this evenings TWO is part of the "process of change" surrounding one of the PRODUCT CHANGES FOR THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON which have come into effect:

4)
The genesis forecasts for the risk of tropical cyclone development will be provided to nearest 10 percent, in both the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks. In previous years, only risk categories (low/medium/high) were given.


...perhaps even it was a forecasters "poke" at having to use this new format, who knows.

[edit] Actually a semantic discussion could ensue (and perhaps has) about whether zero would fit the definition of provided to nearest 10 percent

hmmmm...
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Guess I must be a wishcaster of nothingness...

LOL.
But seriously. To designate an area, and give it 0%, is very weird.
Why not drop it, and pick it up later if it needs to be?
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Quoting SLU:


Which characteristics

92L had at some stages all at once:

- organised deep convection
- at least 25 - 30kts winds
- a closed circulation
- 1011mb air pressure (when the background pressure was about 1015mb)
- Dvorak classifications on T1.5/1.5 which is the minimum needed. TD #2E in the EPAC was numbered at T1.5/1.5 this afternoon

What more proof is needed of a TD

92l was a denial system and never got the glory it so deserved from sat 2pm jun 12 till 2 am mon jun 14 it was what it was and the ball was dropped during the coarse
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
as for the pressure...1011mb? Great. I have seen monsoon lows with way lower pressure than that. Just because it was closed at the surface also does not make it a depression.


my pressure is 1007... wait... am I in a tropical storm?!
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885. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Gotta love the "0%". They did that for a east pacific invest earlier this year.
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884. SLU
Quoting KoritheMan:


It lacked persistent deep convection.


Ok .. well if that's the benchmark set for this season then I want them to remain just as consistent with each and every other disturbance this year and not name weaker, less organised looking systems just because they're close to land.
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Quoting pottery:

Well I could dispute that too!!
In fact, there are some areas where there is a definite possibility that the %'s are likely to be in the Negative. I see some that I would give a Minus 6.75%
So I think that you are OverHyping...

Guess I must be a wishcaster of nothingness...
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Quoting hydrus:
In 2005, 5 named storms had formed in the Atlantic Basin before July 15. This year might be busy, but it will be a long way off from what 2005.


Obviously. I would imagine that many of us here do not expect a repeat of 2005. I'd say a year like 1995 is very possible, though.

I think sometimes you guys seem to forget that June doesn't always contribute a named storm. Only once every other year, on average.

I think 2005 has spoiled a lot of you, tbqh. Just because a severe season is expected, does not at all mean that we have to have a named storm in June, or even the first half of July. Do you realize how easy it is to have several tropical cyclones develop in a period of a week? It's a cinch, provided we have the right conditions.

1995 still managed to make 19 storms and we only had one storm prior to July. Not to mention several unnamed depressions that year. Some people in here need to exercise patience.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmmm, they didn't mention it, but I think the "system" (okay, puff of clouds) just west of Key West has a near 0% chance of development.



Oh, and the "system" at the west end of Cuba, too. Ah, and the "system" north of the Yucatan.

Hmmm, a near 0% chance of development seems to be a distinct possibility in a LOT of places.
;-)

Well I could dispute that too!!
In fact, there are some areas where there is a definite possibility that the %'s are likely to be in the Negative. I see some that I would give a Minus 6.75%
So I think that you are OverHyping...
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as for the pressure...1011mb? Great. I have seen monsoon lows with way lower pressure than that. Just because it was closed at the surface also does not make it a depression.
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This image elicits what it reflects, calm. It is so soothing to my eyes.

May I have another cold one now? [the Hooters girl will comply with a smile and bounce!]

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Quoting SLU:


Which characteristics

92L had at some stages all at once:

- organised deep convection
- at least 25 - 30kts winds
- a closed circulation
- 1011mb air pressure (when the background pressure was about 1015mb)
- Dvorak classifications on T1.5/1.5 which is the minimum needed. TD #2E in the EPAC was numbered at T1.5/1.5 this afternoon

What more proof is needed of a TD


There was not persistent deep convection and the convection wasnt that impressive. A lot of mid level clouds making it look nice on satellite with 3 or 4 true CBs. Also show me an ob that verifies that it had 30kts at the surface? You are talking about a so so satellite dervied wind that has had its shortfalls and false readings. Did not see a solid outflow. Showed it sometimes but not very long or often.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Ike, you're smarter than this.
In 2005, 5 named storms had formed in the Atlantic Basin before July 15. This year might be busy, but it will be a long way off from what happened in 2005.
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favored condition in the caribbean later

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11059
874. SLU
Quoting debbykat:
are you kidding slu 92L never reached tropical depression strength..didnt have a fcc and face it the nhc knows the game and they know what they are doing thats why they get paid the big bucks..debby



Yes Debby but unlike naming invests, the classification of a tropical cyclone is not subjective. Once the conditions are met then the system must be classified accordingly. I've seen many worse looking TD's in the past especially TD #10 of 2007 which I objected to because the winds and the convection were not up to scratch.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Pottery...

Sorry about my short reply earlier, just as I clicked on quote to type, a friend drove in. Then I saw you were out.

Not much happening to report... a quiet "Queen's Birthday" on Monday is about all.

CRS



It's all Good!
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I have just posted my daily blog update. Please read and comment. It is greatly appreciated. Thanks!
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Hmmm, they didn't mention it, but I think the "system" (okay, puff of clouds) just west of Key West has a near 0% chance of development.



Oh, and the "system" at the west end of Cuba, too. Ah, and the "system" north of the Yucatan.

Hmmm, a near 0% chance of development seems to be a distinct possibility in a LOT of places.
;-)
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Casper Kisses Vermont.
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Quoting SLU:


Which characteristics

92L had at some stages all at once:

- organised deep convection
- at least 25 - 30kts winds
- a closed circulation
- 1011mb air pressure (when the background pressure was about 1015mb)
- Dvorak classifications on T1.5/1.5 which is the minimum needed. TD #2E in the EPAC was numbered at T1.5/1.5 this afternoon

What more proof is needed of a TD



It lacked persistent deep convection.
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867. SLU
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Might want to rewrite that book. It def was not a depression. Lacked way to many characteristics.


Which characteristics

92L had at some stages all at once:

- organised deep convection
- at least 25 - 30kts winds
- a closed circulation
- 1011mb air pressure (when the background pressure was about 1015mb)
- Dvorak classifications on T1.5/1.5 which is the minimum needed. TD #2E in the EPAC was numbered at T1.5/1.5 this afternoon

What more proof is needed of a TD

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.