Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jrweatherman:


Welcome to my ignore list:)


Thank you
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Yup we're 16 days into the 180 day hurricane season and it's an over-hyped bust. LMAO


Welcome to my ignore list:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think a few (and do mean a few) of the 'kids" are quite knowledgeable and will one day have a great future in weather if they continue studying, but I will not argue with the NHS, as they are the experts. There are time when I can look at a system and think it should be classified, however, I haven't spent the time the true experts have in studying this field, and won't argue on here just because I believe a system should be classified. We can speculate and give our opinions, but in the end, it is just that. Not the facts.
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I think 92L was a TS based on my point system! 9+8-4*6-14%=678543. Just trying to lighten the mood guys and girls! LOL
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Quoting IKE:
Just because a TCFA is issued doesn't mean a system will be upgraded to a depression.

I don't personally care whether it was a TD or not. I thought it was headed toward one the other morning, but I'm not expert enough to say it was.

The NHC is conservative, but I'm not going to argue their thoughts on an invest.

A lot on here were happy that Stacey Stewart is back at the NHC. They like his professionalism in his work.

He was one of the forecasters whose name has been on the TWO the last few days. I'll take his word that 92L was never a TD.

He's a pro. I'm an amateur.


I agree with your comment about no caring if it was a TD or not. What is the big deal if it was a TD for a few hours or not? It does not matter!!
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Quoting SLU:


Ok. The mere fact that the Atlantic could have sustained a system like this in mid-June is all the prrof we needed of an upcoming major season.

Cant disagree with that. It was an impressive wave for June. The overall synoptic pattern is shifting and we are in transition season. Takes time for the overall pattern to settle out a bit. When that happens will we see a freight train of storms roll through. It is still very very early.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


You are clearly clueless

about 1% of all storm activity in Atlantic Basin history occurs on or before June 16th; even in above average seasons.

Just because we have not had a named storm yet, does not mean the season is "over-hyped" or a "bust".


Dang it man you beat me to the punch LOL
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
Quoting RecordSeason:
naked swirl of 92L is still there, not much else to see though.

2010 season is an over-hyped bust at this rate.


Ignorance?
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Yup we're 16 days into the 180 day hurricane season and it's an over-hyped bust. LMAO
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
Quoting RecordSeason:
naked swirl of 92L is still there, not much else to see though.

2010 season is an over-hyped bust at this rate.


You are clearly clueless on this point

about 1% of all storm activity in Atlantic Basin history occurs on or before June 16th; even in above average seasons.

Just because we have not had a named storm yet, does not mean the season is "over-hyped" or a "bust".
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Hey, now, some of those kids are really with it!

Cant totally disagree...it is impressive how much they know which is why I never say someone shouldnt voice their opinion and why I do not ignore people. Still though sometimes facts are lacking but hey that is how we learn.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
naked swirl of 92L is still there, not much else to see though.

2010 season is an over-hyped bust at this rate.

It's mid-June.
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955. SLU
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

As have I and have gone to school for it and teach it now. Still I have never worked in their office and fully know their processes and rules since I never sat in that chair. Therefore I am sure they have their reasons and know why it wasnt a TD. I also personally have my reasons why I thought and know it wasnt a TD. It is all good I will never tell soemone they cant have their opinion. This time I just happen to disagree.


Ok. The mere fact that the Atlantic could have sustained a system like this in mid-June is all the proof we needed of an upcoming major season.
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Quoting BiloxiIsle:

HaboobsRsweet---how silly are you? Don't you know that the kids in here are truly the experts, not those who went to school and trained to meterologist??

Hey, now, some of those kids are really with it!
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Probably be another flash flooding story tomorrow, just wow!

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
I (and I expect others in the Islands also) will be interested to see this new service from NHC this year:

NHC Experimental Videocast Service
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutvideocast.shtml


For the 2009/2010 hurricane seasons, NHC has entered into an agreement with
America's Emergency Network (AEN) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcexit.shtml?http://emergency.info/index.html
to provide IP-based audio and video streaming of it's hourly hurricane briefings. The URL to the briefings will be posted on the NHC Web site when the media pool is activated. Anyone with access to the Internet and a web browser that supports audio and video can view the briefings broadcast from the National Hurricane Center.


For the past years, NHC has provided hourly briefings to the media through a media pool process
that has sometimes meant limited or no local media outlet access to the briefings when
threatening storms are near low-populated areas, or in situations where media outlets may not
have the resources to send representatives to NHC.
The relationship with AEN is intended to provide both distant media outlets as well as the
general public access to these events for the purpose of disseminating hurricane information for
the protection of life and property by leveraging technologies and resources not directly available
to NHC.
Currently, these briefings are broadcast on television and select radio stations, at the stations'
discretion. In addition, an experimental MP3 format is allowing the general public to access the
audio portion of the briefings via the Internet to help increase the distribution of the NHC media
briefings to additional media outlets such as newspapers and radio stations.
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950. IKE
Just because a TCFA is issued doesn't mean a system will be upgraded to a depression.

I don't personally care whether it was a TD or not. I thought it was headed toward one the other morning, but I'm not expert enough to say it was.

The NHC is conservative, but I'm not going to argue their thoughts on an invest.

A lot on here were happy that Stacey Stewart is back at the NHC. They like his professionalism in his work.

He was one of the forecasters whose name has been on the TWO the last few days. I'll take his word that 92L was never a TD.

He's a pro. I'm an amateur.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

HaboobsRsweet---how silly are you? Don't you know that the kids in here are truly the experts, not those who went to school and trained to meterologist??

Haha fair enough...what was I thinking. Guess I lost my mind there for a second.
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947. beell
Quoting scott39:
Im with you on that one. I dont see their point.


It's secret code for:
0% chance of tropical cyclone formation.

The next higher level of understanding after the 3-color scheme.
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Wow it is a total circus in here tonight it appears

I can see this happening, the system is all but dead, so now is the time you get the "I told you so crowd" VS "It was a TD crowd"

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Quoting SLU:


Excellent. For my money the next TD to form this year i'll refer to as TD #2. There's very little to argue against AL92 being a TD for at least a day during its lifetime.

I tend not to ignore a single person because I just dont care that much but anyone that disrespects the naming system and will only lead to confusion for young people trying to learn and people who use this as another tool for some intel might be the first to hit my list. Why call it something it isnt just to confuse people are are watching to learn?
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Good evening!
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

just from people still calling 92L a TD when it wasnt. Can be frustrating but it is what it is.

HaboobsRsweet---how silly are you? Don't you know that the kids in here are truly the experts, not those who went to school and trained to meterologist??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sebastianflorida:
Anyone want to argue with climo and the NHC now?

All storms have a lot going against development, a small percentage of waves in any given year have enough of the elements necessary to become a named entity, and those elements are fluid enough on a daily basis, and even sometimes on an hourly basis to change everything; once in a great while these changes lead to rapid intensification, but for the most it leads to declines in the organization necessary to produce or maintain named systems or a TD. All storms are dependent on many environmental factors that constantly change.

It would be great if someone with a lot more knowledge on the s\ubject than I have, made a list of the top ten or so elements needed for a storm to form and maintain, and that way for the next "92L" we could rate the feature by how many of the most important elements that said feature had going for it; the same could be done for negative elements. I guess I mean create a chart for development likelihood.

Hope all this makes sense, that way bloggers can use the list for making their arguments for or bagaint development or a system maintaining or gaining intensity.

Just my thoughts on the matter. I am tired of seeing people getting poofed or berated, when really neither they, nor the poofer back up there stance. Obviously some want storms, and others don't, but that is not justification for development or non development.

One last thought, maybe more time should be spent talking about why systems probably won't develop, because most waves won't, and that is a solid fact.

Nice Post!
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On a side note...about a week ago I do remember saying that one of the two supposed to show up in epac had a better shot to make TD status than the waves in the atlantic this week. the TD in the epac looks nice. Good structure and if you notice it has way more convection.
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
Just stay quiet Storm, the blog is a little tense to say the least. That's why I've just been lurking.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
939. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i beg to differ
on or near noon sat jun 12 2010 a invest designated 92l
achieve T.C.F.A. status using a number point system total at time was 36
6 hrs later another count we reach 38 points
by 2 pm sun jun 13 2010 the point count exceeded 42 points
a T.C.F.W. should have been issued but never was NHC increased risk to 60 percent that afternoon early evening the system was alredy commencing the waning phase and the rest is history

and the history is
earliest cape verde type system to dev in the far east atl in jun
and may have been an all time record in basin
but was not regonize for what it was
do to climo and the fact that they could not believe what they were seeing
maybe it will be added in the end of the season


Excellent. For my money the next TD to form this year i'll refer to as TD #2. There's very little to argue against AL92 being a TD for at least a day during its lifetime.
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Quoting pottery:

LOL.
But seriously. To designate an area, and give it 0%, is very weird.
Why not drop it, and pick it up later if it needs to be?
Im with you on that one. I dont see their point.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


hey moron
i was using tools provided by NHC and the navy
there own tools were used against them
and if they themselves had followed protocol and use the tools they provided
it would of been what ever it would have been in fact the navy themselves didnot issue any statement
what so ever until after midnight jun 14 2010 and then a T.C.F.A. was finally issued
36 hrs after the points were achieved so don't blast me for speaking the truth till you know the truth yourself


sorry... i already recanted my statement
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
936. JLPR2
We need a TD in the central Atlantic, heading due north
that way everyone would be happy and there wouldn't be discussions here ¬¬
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935. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:

Lose the dripping part and the sarcasm might have been funny...or something. What's up with the 'tude?


Lose the dripping parts?
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


im glad you are so much smarter than the phd's at the NHC, thank god you are here to enlighten us


hey moron
i was using tools provided by NHC and the navy
there own tools were used against them
and if they themselves had followed protocol and use the tools they provided
it would of been what ever it would have been in fact the navy themselves didnot issue any statement
what so ever until after midnight jun 14 2010 and then a T.C.F.A. was finally issued
36 hrs after the points were achieved so don't blast me for speaking the truth till you know the truth yourself
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
@904

... A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL ZIEBACH COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

AT 655 PM MDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DUPREE... MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 2 MILES NORTH OF DUPREE AT 655 PM MDT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DUPREE AND THUNDER BUTTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT... A LARGE... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME... A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS... MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

scary stuff.

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Quoting SLU:


Of course we can. But the funny thing is i've been tracking storms every year for about that same period too so I have a good knowledge of tropical cyclones.

As have I and have gone to school for it and teach it now. Still I have never worked in their office and fully know their processes and rules since I never sat in that chair. Therefore I am sure they have their reasons and know why it wasnt a TD. I also personally have my reasons why I thought and know it wasnt a TD. It is all good I will never tell soemone they cant have their opinion. This time I just happen to disagree.
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Quoting sebastianflorida:
Anyone want to argue with climo and the NHC now?

All storms have a lot going against development, a small percentage of waves in any given year have enough of the elements necessary to become a named entity, and those elements are fluid enough on a daily basis, and even sometimes on an hourly basis to change everything; once in a great while these changes lead to rapid intensification, but for the most it leads to declines in the organization necessary to produce or maintain named systems or a TD. All storms are dependent on many environmental factors that constantly change.

It would be great if someone with a lot more knowledge on the s\ubject than I have, made a list of the top ten or so elements needed for a storm to form and maintain, and that way for the next "92L" we could rate the feature by how many of the most important elements that said feature had going for it; the same could be done for negative elements. I guess I mean create a chart for development likelihood.

Hope all this makes sense, that way bloggers can use the list for making their arguments for or bagaint development or a system maintaining or gaining intensity.

Just my thoughts on the matter. I am tired of seeing people getting poofed or berated, when really neither they, nor the poofer back up there stance. Obviously some want storms, and others don't, but that is not justification for development or non development.

One last thought, maybe more time should be spent talking about why systems probably won't develop, because most waves won't, and that is a solid fact.


Agreed completely.
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930. Skyepony (Mod)
According to NASA giss we smashed the May N.HEMI Temperature Anomalies record of .91ºC set in 2005 with a 1.06ºC.
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929. SLU
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
SLU

I saw you comments about keeping track of the Tropical waves this year, and I think you might find the link below to a very comprehensive archive of satellite images of all the invests from 08 & 09 interesting. Unfortunately the effort is not continuing this year as far as I can tell.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/

CRS


thanks! .. i'll check it out
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Quoting stormmasterg92:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=UDX&product=N0S&overlay=11101111&loop=yes HUGE SOUTH DAKOTA TORNADO GREATER THAN 100 KT SHEAR IF IT WASN'T COUNTRY THIS WOULD LIKELY BE EF4 OR EF5 TORNADO BASED ON SHEAR.

been eying that thing... massive! 7+ inches of rain by radar estimate. nuts
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
did anything think maybe you counted the points wrong? That you were coutning ones that werent actually true. Maybe you misunderstand the rule? Just saying there is a reason why the experts didnt put anything out.
If you are talking about TCFA me and weather456 continuously added up the points and each time we got the same numbers that exceeded the requirement for a TCFA to be issued. But what we failed to see is that they are not issued during weekends.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting atmoaggie:

Lose the dripping part and the sarcasm might have been funny...or something. What's up with the 'tude?

just from people still calling 92L a TD when it wasnt. Can be frustrating but it is what it is.
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this french flooding looks pretty bad!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Lose the dripping part and the sarcasm might have been funny...or something. What's up with the 'tude?


sorry.. no offense to KOG im just tired of people thinking they know so much more the the NHC does cause they know how to post a map... i know KOG is respected didn't mean to lash out like that...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
922. SLU
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
SLU we can agree to disagree. It is all good. Just hard to disagree with Mets that have PHDs and all they do is study these storms all year round for 10-20 years.


Of course we can. But the funny thing is i've been tracking storms every year for about that same period too so I have a good knowledge of tropical cyclones.
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All storms have a lot going against development, a small percentage of waves in any given year have enough of the elements necessary to become a named entity, and those elements are fluid enough on a daily basis, and even sometimes on an hourly basis to change everything; once in a great while these changes lead to rapid intensification, but for the most it leads to declines in the organization necessary to produce or maintain named systems or a TD. All storms are dependent on many environmental factors that constantly change.

It would be great if someone with a lot more knowledge on the s\ubject than I have, made a list of the top ten or so elements needed for a storm to form and maintain, and that way for the next "92L" we could rate the feature by how many of the most important elements that said feature had going for it; the same could be done for negative elements. I guess I mean create a chart for development likelihood.

Hope all this makes sense, that way bloggers can use the list for making their arguments for or bagaint development or a system maintaining or gaining intensity.

Just my thoughts on the matter. I am tired of seeing people getting poofed or berated, when really neither they, nor the poofer back up there stance. Obviously some want storms, and others don't, but that is not justification for development or non development.

One last thought, maybe more time should be spent talking about why systems probably won't develop, because most waves won't, and that is a solid fact.
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920. JLPR2
areas of interest in the Atlantic?
Well, there is this area which has some vorticity

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did anything think maybe you counted the points wrong? That you were coutning ones that werent actually true. Maybe you misunderstand the rule? Just saying there is a reason why the experts didnt put anything out.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


im glad you are so much smarter than the phd's at the NHC, thank god you are here to enlighten us

Lose the dripping part and the sarcasm might have been funny...or something. What's up with the 'tude?
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Quoting SLU:


It is the pressure gradient which determines the strength of the wind not the actual minimum air pressure within a system.

For instance. If 92L had a minimum pressure of 1010mb and the background pressure (the pressure in the surrounding environment) was 1015mb then the pressure gradient would be 4mb.

The same pressure gradient would exist if a system had a minimum pressure of 1007mb in an environment where the pressure is 1011mb. The gradient is still 4mb therefore both systems would theoretically be of the same intensity.

Yes...thanks for the lesson. PGF is Meteo 101. the lower the pressure at the center the more likely you have a stronger pressure gradient. If you ahve a 1015mb high to the north and a 998mb low to the south, your pressure gradient will be stronger than a 1010mb low pressing against it. Some of those winds readings could have just been from the downdraft from the convection near the center but again the convection was not very impressive.
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