Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

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A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1017. txjac
Relix gets to keep his hair! No shaving!
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1016. Ossqss

Pat made me do it :)

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1015. pottery
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


And a problem it may be...


Conditions across the Trop. Atl. are more favourable now than last week?
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1014. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Keeper,

All is well down here. I understand the disappointment of being so close to what could have been a history making event that may well have stood the test of time for decades.

It is what it is for now. As you know, I never did think 92L warranted being classified and perhaps in time the NHC may revisit the way they called this one.

For now, we look ahead to the next one and there will be many this year I am sure.


yes
iam sure there is still
a couple out there
at least anyway

lol

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1013. Patrap
A Wave on the African Continent can be called Godzilla.

But until it makes the jump to Hyperspace..or the transition to the Eastern Atlantic with some spin.

It aint squat.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
1012. SLU
Quoting pottery:
So, anyone seen the MegaWave over Central West Africa?


I haven't watched it as yet but a very active wave train is expected to begin over the weekend into next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


And a problem it may be...



Those are just dust cluds from elephants sitting on the ground and passing gas. LOL
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Quoting kmanislander:


No, just exhausted and bored !


That's okay also hehehehe
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
All of the posts are in numerical order with no skips?...... All the kids must've went to bed. LOL


No, just exhausted and bored !
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1007. Patrap
EP022010 - Tropical Depression TWO

Rainbow Channel

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
All of the posts are in numerical order with no skips?...... All the kids must've went to bed. LOL
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1004. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


.."O yee Followers of the Invest 92L

Though Thou hast made much ado as to her Span,

The meminites and the GFS will be sacrificed for your interest.

So let it be written..

So let us indulge in Song.

And praise the MJO..most High

Ahhh ah ahhh ah ahhhh

BRAVO!!
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1003. Patrap
Quoting Patrap: Quoting Dr. Masters
Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

iam not cryin kman
in fact iam happy
the way 92 played out
it could have been a whole lot different
if it had become a monster barreling down on northern leewards
my only disappointment is 92l will not get its just regonition it so deserves because it was not a named or numbered system

o and how are ya this evening
my brother from
a different mother


Hi Keeper,

All is well down here. I understand the disappointment of being so close to what could have been a history making event that may well have stood the test of time for decades.

It is what it is for now. As you know, I never did think 92L warranted being classified and perhaps in time the NHC may revisit the way they called this one.

For now, we look ahead to the next one and there will be many this year I am sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1001. pottery
So, anyone seen the MegaWave over Central West Africa?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Bed option is always well played .

I use it often beell
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
998. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:

But, sometimes, you have to pick your battles. Which ones? Still learning that, myself. Someday...

Berlioz wrote, "Time is a great teacher. Unfortunately, it kills all its pupils."



You would be hard pressed to find signs of a battle here from me regarding 92L. Half-dozen posts. Did get called a name for suggesting 92L was on the way to an open wave last night. Did not pick that one. Went to bed, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


.."O yee Followers of the Invest 92L

Though Thou hast made much ado as to her Span,

The meminites and the GFS will be sacrificed for your interest.

So let it be written..

So let us indulge in Song.

And praise the MJO..most High

Ahhh ah ahhh ah ahhhh
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Dont pay attention to that, its messed up. And actually, that has a good chance to develop according to that map.

that has a good mediocre chance to develop
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995. SLU
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I respect that you feel so strongly that it was a TD and I just respectfully disagree. Yes those three things are part of it. It is all good. Maybe you are right and I am wrong. It doesnt matter because it was not named TD1 so the only tihng about your statement that bothered me is you will refer to the next one as TD2 from here on out. All that does is confuse people for no reason. It just isnt needed. Lets pretend your name is John but I say you look like a Jack. I am not going to call you Jack when your name is John. So why call TD1 TD2 if its name is TD1?


LOL .. Worry not. No one will get confused. As I said ealier on ... in my books it was a TD. The official score for the season remains at 0 until the next system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

It is going to be a very long and difficult season on this blog if every time the NHC does not upgrade a system the cry of conspiracy goes up.

The simple fact of the matter is that the NHC is charged with the responsibility of making the call based not just upon the technical qualifications of those who work there but the many years of experience they bring to the job.

The really important thing to bear in mind on this blog is the need to try and remain objective and not get carried away with wanting or wishing a system to set the record as the earliest to be classified or the one that is classified the furthest East or any other call for that matter.

Unfortunately, objectivity was sacrificed on the alter of reality with 92L.

iam not cryin kman
in fact iam happy
the way 92 played out
it could have been a whole lot different
if it had become a monster barreling down on northern leewards
my only disappointment is 92l will not get its just regonition it so deserves because it was not a named or numbered system

o and how are ya this evening
my brother from
a different mother
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Storm..... You are the Master. Thanks for all of your input on the blog.

Chuck
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991. txjac
lol "(1%)
ie Don't start boarding up"

Cute Calico

Actually I hope that brings Houston some rain ...too hot lately

Good evening all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
I have just posted my daily blog update. Please read and comment. It is greatly appreciated. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting beell:
More than a few of the WU (self-included)ascribe to the belief that as long as there is an LLC-watch it. I'm sure it will retain a greater than 0% interest here. A 200 mile wide, 2,000 ft high column of rotating atmosphere does not magically stop. A strong and fast surge of low level Atlantic moisture coming up behind 92L may disrupt the remains faster than the wind shear.

The upper flow around the southern side of a developing ULL in the central/western Caribbean basin towards the base of a strong deep layer trough in the northern Atlantic should keep the wind shear on the high side.
Link

But, sometimes, you have to pick your battles. Which ones? Still learning that, myself. Someday...

Berlioz wrote, "Time is a great teacher. Unfortunately, it kills all its pupils."

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


(1%)
ie Don't start boarding up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Well when 1st started learning about the tropics is read that a tropical depression forms when a tropical disturbance has attained 30mph winds, deep convection and a closed circulation. Apparently I'll have to do some more reading since it seems they've changed the requirements of a tropical depression .......

I respect that you feel so strongly that it was a TD and I just respectfully disagree. Yes those three things are part of it. It is all good. Maybe you are right and I am wrong. It doesnt matter because it was not named TD1 so the only tihng about your statement that bothered me is you will refer to the next one as TD2 from here on out. All that does is confuse people for no reason. It just isnt needed. Lets pretend your name is John but I say you look like a Jack. I am not going to call you Jack when your name is John. So why call TD1 TD2 if its name is TD1?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

It is going to be a very long and difficult season on this blog if every time the NHC does not upgrade a system the cry of conspiracy goes up.

The simple fact of the matter is that the NHC is charged with the responsibility of making the call based not just upon the technical qualifications of those who work there but the many years of experience they bring to the job.

The really important thing to bear in mind on this blog is the need to try and remain objective and not get carried away with wanting or wishing a system to set the record as the earliest to be classified or the one that is classified the furthest East or any other call for that matter.

Unfortunately, objectivity was sacrificed on the alter of reality with 92L.


Well said good ol' bud sir... JK
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982. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yes
and to disagree now is pointless
we wait till the end of the season
just like the email from NHC stated
NAVY never did response
but they don't have to
there the navy
we wait for the next one
and its coming


I won't have a problem with that as long as they use this as a benchmark for the rest of the year and that they maintain consistency across the board.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
980. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
25 knots for tropical depression is for the Pacific mostly.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening

It is going to be a very long and difficult season on this blog if every time the NHC does not upgrade a system the cry of conspiracy goes up.

The simple fact of the matter is that the NHC is charged with the responsibility of making the call based not just upon the technical qualifications of those who work there but the many years of experience they bring to the job.

The really important thing to bear in mind on this blog is the need to try and remain objective and not get carried away with wanting or wishing a system to set the record as the earliest to be classified or the one that is classified the furthest East or any other call for that matter.

Unfortunately, objectivity was sacrificed on the altar of reality with 92L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
977. beell
More than a few of the WU (self-included)ascribe to the belief that as long as there is an LLC-watch it. I'm sure it will retain a greater than 0% interest here. A 200 mile wide, 2,000 ft high column of rotating atmosphere does not magically stop. A strong and fast surge of low level Atlantic moisture coming up behind 92L may disrupt the remains faster than the wind shear.

The upper flow around the southern side of a developing ULL in the central/western Caribbean basin towards the base of a strong deep layer trough in the northern Atlantic should keep the wind shear on the high side.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Y'all are forgetting Potts Theorem No.1

" The Heightened level of Angst and Quarrelsome behaviour on this Blog is Directly and Proportionately related to the Lack of Tropical Storm Activity in the Atlantic Basin"

All will be well, and everyone will be smiling soon!
(except for those that are crying, of course)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
975. SLU
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I tend not to ignore a single person because I just dont care that much but anyone that disrespects the naming system and will only lead to confusion for young people trying to learn and people who use this as another tool for some intel might be the first to hit my list. Why call it something it isnt just to confuse people are are watching to learn?


Well when I 1st started learning about the tropics I read that a tropical depression forms when a tropical disturbance has attained 30mph winds, deep convection and a closed circulation. Apparently I'll have to do some more reading since it seems they've changed the requirements of a tropical depression .......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've been on this earth for 43 years and I still have not met anybody who could hurt my feelings.

Thanks Atmo.... I'm just glad that "most" everybody has given up on 92L. There will be plenty more to track this season.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Hey, now, some of those kids are really with it!
Experts? I don't think many on here are experts except for a select few.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting SLU:


Ok. The mere fact that the Atlantic could have sustained a system like this in mid-June is all the prrof we needed of an upcoming major season.


yes
and to disagree now is pointless
we wait till the end of the season
just like the email from NHC stated
NAVY never did response
but they don't have to
there the navy
we wait for the next one
and its coming
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting Hurricanes101:


why you ignoring him? Ever heard of sarcasm?

Also he wasn't even responding to you in the first place LOL


Thanks 101.. I thought it was funny
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Quoting BiloxiIsle:
I think a few (and do mean a few) of the 'kids" are quite knowledgeable and will one day have a great future in weather if they continue studying, but I will not argue with the NHS, as they are the experts. There are time when I can look at a system and think it should be classified, however, I haven't spent the time the true experts have in studying this field, and won't argue on here just because I believe a system should be classified. We can speculate and give our opinions, but in the end, it is just that. Not the facts.

Well said and exactly my point. It is easy to be a backseat forecaster and say one thing and it is another to actually sit in the chair and make the offical call. they have more tools than we do and more data, facts and rules. I was was the expert over them they would offer me a job haha.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Thank you

Hehe. Excellent response.
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Quoting jrweatherman:


Welcome to my ignore list:)


why you ignoring him? Ever heard of sarcasm?

Also he wasn't even responding to you in the first place LOL
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Quoting jrweatherman:


Welcome to my ignore list:)


Thank you
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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