Unusually well-organized 92L disturbance may become a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on June 14, 2010

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Invest 92L, a remarkably well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season, is midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Infrared satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms along the north side of 92L's center of circulation, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms activity appears to be slowly increasing in intensity and areal coverage. Upper-level outflow is apparent to the west and north of 92L, and the outflow has been gradually improving this morning. Visible satellite loops do not show much in the way of low-level spiral bands, and my current take from the satellite imagery is that 92L is slowly organizing, and will not become a tropical depression any earlier than 11pm EDT tonight (Monday.) A 4:27 am EDT pass from the WINDSAT satellite saw a partially closed circulation at the surface (open on the south side), with top surface winds of 25 - 30 mph north of the center.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L (left side of image) and a vigorous new tropical wave that has moved off the coast of Africa (right side.) None of models develop the new tropical wave, but it bears watching.

Sea surface temperatures
Climatology argues against development of 92L, since only one named storm has ever formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the month of June--Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 (Figure 2). However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) underneath 92L are an extremely high 28°C, and will increase to 29°C by Thursday. In fact, with summer not even here, and three more months of heating remaining until we reach peak SSTs in the Atlantic, ocean temperatures across the entire Caribbean and waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are about the same as they were during the peak week for water temperatures in 2009 (mid-September.)

Dry air not a problem for 92L until Wednesday
The disturbance doesn't have to worry about dry air today or Tuesday--Total Precipitable Water (TPW) loops show a very moist plume of air accompanies 92L, and water vapor satellite loops show that the center of 92L is at least 200 - 300 miles from any substantial areas of dry air. As 92L continues to push northwest, though, the SHIPS model is predicting that relative humidity at middle levels of the atmosphere will fall from the current value of about 70%, to 60% on Wednesday. This dry air may begin to cause problems for 92L on Wednesday, especially since wind shear will be increasing at the same time. Tropical cyclones are more vulnerable to dry air when there is substantial wind shear, since the strong winds causing the shear are able to inject the dry air deep into the core of the storm.

Madden-Julian Oscillation
The 60-day cycle of enhanced thunderstorm activity called the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently favoring upward motion over eastern tropical Atlantic, and this enhanced upward motion helps create stronger updrafts and higher chances of tropical cyclone development.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 was the only June named storm on record to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Wind shear
A major issue for 92L, like it is for most June disturbances, is wind shear. The subtropical jet stream has a branch flowing through the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic north of 10° N that is bringing 20 - 40 knots of wind shear to the region. Our disturbance was located near 10°N, 40°W at 8am EDT this morning, a few hundred miles south of this band of high shear, and is currently only experiencing 5 - 10 knots of shear. This low amount of shear should allow for some steady development of 92L over the next two days as it tracks west-northwest or northwest at 15 mph. The latest run of the SHIPS model is predicting the shear will rise to 20 knots on Wednesday, which may start to cause problems for 92L.

The forecast for 92L
The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a high (60% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The odds of development have increased since yesterday, as the storm has moved considerably to the northwest, away from the Equator. Now it can leverage the Earth's spin to a much greater degree to help get it get spinning. It is quite unusual for a tropical depression to form south of 8°N latitude.

I expect that 92L's best chance to become a tropical depression will come on Tuesday, and the storm could strengthen enough by Wednesday to be named Tropical Storm Alex. The farther south 92L stays, the better chance it has at survival. With the system's steady west-northwest movement this week, 92L will probably begin encountering hostile wind shear in excess of 20 knots by Wednesday, which should interfere with continued development. Several of our reliable models do develop 92L into a tropical storm with 40 - 55 mph winds, but all of the models foresee weakening by Thursday or Friday as 92L approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands and encounters high shear and dry air. I doubt 92L will be anything stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm when it moves through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday and Saturday, and it would be no surprise if wind shear has destroyed the storm by then. However, as usual, surprises can happen, and the GFS and the SHIPS model (which is based upon the GFS) do indicate that more modest levels of wind shear in the 15 - 20 mph range late this week may allow 92L to stay stronger than I'm expecting. Residents of the islands--particularly the northern Lesser Antilles--should follow the progress of 92L closely, and anticipate heavy rains and high winds moving through the islands as early as Thursday night.

Oil spill wind forecast
There is little change to the oil spill wind forecast for the coming two weeks. Light winds of 5 - 10 knots mostly out of the south or southeast will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the coast of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

Jeff Masters

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3141. Patrap
Patrap amid da well heads in the GOM

"I love the smell of Hydrocarbons in da morn'..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
3140. hercj
Quoting Patrap:


Sinclair comes to Mind..


hey Pat I remember that company. lol. God I'm an old guy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Sinclair comes to Mind..



LOL
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Quoting IKE:
DESTIN — Okaloosa County isn’t taking oil spill orders any more.

County commissioners voted unanimously to give their emergency management team the power to take whatever action it deems necessary to prevent oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill from entering Choctawhatchee Bay through the East Pass.

From here.


It's pretty obvious that BP doesn't have a clue so it's good to see our county take action!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3343
3137. bjdsrq
Quoting Floodman:


The oil companies didn't investigate it because it would have cost money with no assured return; it's like auto makers designing bigger gas guzzlers instead of working towards better and better fuel economies; there was no money in it, really, and no one was holding their feet to the fire.

Most super large companies aren't proactive; they react after something catastrophic happens. Like a dinosaur, there's too much space from the tip of the tail to the brain for fast easy communications


There was no govt regulation, mandate, or incentives, to develop better oil clean-up tech, so the oil industry did nothing for 50 years. There is some interesting video on bio-remediation trials used in texas coastal spills. I wonder why they are not using microbes for this. Seems very promising, and can't be as bad as the dispersants.
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3136. hercj
Quoting skook:




I thought they are using the reclaimed oil as if it was right from the well. ("oil us oil" ?Heard it on tv) Bp is supposedly donating profits from the reclaimed oil to some charity.

My take on that is that somewhere way down the line in a COURT far far away the decision on who owns oil that is floating in the Gulf Of Mexico will be made.
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i agree

The Navy still has a tropical formation alert for the area it's in.
Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
Quoting skook:




I thought they are using the reclaimed oil as if it was right from the well. ("oil us oil" ?Heard it on tv) Bp is supposedly donating profits from the reclaimed oil to some charity.


I could be wrong, of course; I'm no chemist...my understanding was the the sludge would be good fro plastics production ect, but for fuels, not so much...anyone here know about petro-chemistry?
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3133. Patrap
Quoting Floodman:


The oil companies didn't investigate it because it would have cost money with no assured return; it's like auto makers designing bigger gas guzzlers instead of working towards better and better fuel economies; there was no money in it, really, and no one was holding their feet to the fire.

Most super large companies aren't proactive; they react after something catastrophic happens. Like a dinosaur, there's too much space from the tip of the tail to the brain for fast easy communications


Sinclair comes to Mind..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
3132. Patrap
Quoting bjdsrq:


Right. But these are oil industry services companies, not movie companies like Cameron's. Check out Aker solutions, Oceaneering, etc. Their ROVs are dedicated to the oil industry and are typically used in deepwater well installations. The people that design and operate these ROVs are the real heros in this spill incident IMO.


I worked for Chevron in the Mid 90's outta Venice.


Hercules-21
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92


Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
3129. 7544
92l is doing what all the models were showing at this point . they have it getting weaker in this area but for some reason after it gets thru this jet and it should regroup itsself as it moves wnw so its all wait and see for now
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3128. bjdsrq
Quoting Patrap:




The ROV's on site are not BP's they are contracted companies.



Right. But these are oil industry services companies, not movie companies like Cameron's. Check out Aker solutions, Oceaneering, etc. Their ROVs are dedicated to the oil industry and are typically used in deepwater well installations. The people that design and operate these ROVs are the real heros in this spill incident IMO.
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Quoting stormmasterg92:
Gulf thing will not develop as its a upper level low and i agree with dr.richard knabb.


An upper level low has never worked itself to the surface and formed a tropical entity? I'm not saying it will but don't write it off just because it's an upper level feature now, stranger things have happened and the Gulf waters are extremely warm for June. I'll make no predictions on it but I'll keep a close eye on it just for the simple fact it's not far from home!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3343
Quoting RecordSeason:
missed the point, but oh well.

I saw the machine worked, wasn't dissing it. Just thought its sad that the oil companies haven't made that decades ago.


Sort of like I think it's sad the pros are gonna be wrong about this thing in the gulf.


The oil companies didn't investigate it because it would have cost money with no assured return; it's like auto makers designing bigger gas guzzlers instead of working towards better and better fuel economies; there was no money in it, really, and no one was holding their feet to the fire.

Most super large companies aren't proactive; they react after something catastrophic happens. Like a dinosaur, there's too much space from the tip of the tail to the brain for fast easy communications
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3125. skook
Quoting Floodman:
Quoting hercj:

Ok that is what I thought. I am of the mind that Costner's machine is on the right track. However, I am also of the mind that whom ever will perfect such a device will claim the rights to the recovered oil and therefore will profit mightily and then we can hate them too.


The recovered oil? The stuff we're talking about would be pretty useless for pretty much anything; the volatiles are out of the oil and what you're left with is a nasty sludge




I thought they are using the reclaimed oil as if it was right from the well. ("oil is oil" ?Heard it on tv) Bp is supposedly donating profits from the reclaimed oil to some charity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3123. Patrap
BP Engineer Called Deepwater Horizon 'Nightmare Well' Days Before Blast, Oil Spill




WELLCAT™ Casing Design Software

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
What's up everyone?? Good morning! Half day at work for me today! Woo!
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Lesson of the day: Hurricane climatology 101....learn it, know it, live it!!
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Everything looks super quiet on the African Continent.

Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
3119. Patrap


Quoting bjdsrq:


Yes. I agree. Costner invested his money to develop this technology after seeing damage from the Exxon accident. It's more honorable than using it to create your own line of designer pimp clothes or energy drinks like other celebs.

Now, I don't blame BP for turning away James Cameron for offering help with underwater filming. BP seems to have that part nailed pretty good already, and Cameron knows nothing about oil wells.


The ROV's on site are not BP's they are contracted companies.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
Quoting hercj:

Ok that is what I thought. I am of the mind that Costner's machine is on the right track. However, I am also of the mind that whom ever will perfect such a device will claim the rights to the recovered oil and therefore will profit mightily and then we can hate them too.


The recovered oil? The stuff we're talking about would be pretty useless for pretty much anything; the volatiles are out of the oil and what you're left with is a nasty sludge
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3117. hercj
Quoting HyDrO420:


I see no need to hate someonw for making money off the spill as long as it's cleaning up the oil.

Nor do I. I am being a smart---.
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3116. bjdsrq
Quoting ricderr:
Hilarious how Costner can be described as a circus clown when by monetary standards all he needed to do was live fat and happy off his movie earnings. Instead, he invested his money and time into creating something that bettered our planet, making it safer for you and I and our children to live in. To help ensure our surival as a species. If more thought a bit less selfishly we wouldn't be in this mess presently.


Yes. I agree. Costner invested his money to develop this technology after seeing damage from the Exxon accident. It's more honorable than using it to create your own line of designer pimp clothes or energy drinks like other celebs.

Now, I don't blame BP for turning away James Cameron for offering help with underwater filming. BP seems to have that part nailed pretty good already, and Cameron knows nothing about oil wells.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
"BP enlists help from Kevin Costner." - CNN.

Sad, sad that a multi-Billion dollar company needs help from glorified hollywood circus clowns.

So, are they going to use his machine? Or do they just need acting lessons for Tony Hayward?


By all accounts his machine works better than most other technologies that are out there currently but the question at this point is, with as much oil in the the water as there, how many, how big and what's the turn around time on getting them deployed...

This isn't a question of Hollywood clowns; their money spends like anyone else's when it comes to R&D...stop worrying about preconceptions and start worrying about results I think is the point here
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Quoting Patrap:




ESL by LSU.

One to bookmark


The animations work on ipad.
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Quoting ricderr:
Hilarious how Costner can be described as a circus clown when by monetary standards all he needed to do was live fat and happy off his movie earnings. Instead, he invested his money and time into creating something that bettered our planet, making it safer for you and I and our children to live in. To help ensure our surival as a species. If more thought a bit less selfishly we wouldn't be in this mess presently.


Well said, thank you.
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Quoting Patrap:
ESL by LSU Animated GOM WV False Color Loop


Producing some nice boomers over the GOM.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 4009
Quoting hurricanejunky:

VERY NICE!!
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It's amazing that this happened so early in June. This seasons going to be insane, and I highly doubt that TUTT will save us. Even though 92L didn't develop, it's a very troubiling sign.
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Quoting hercj:

Ok that is what I thought. I am of the mind that Costner's machine is on the right track. However, I am also of the mind that whom ever will perfect such a device will claim the rights to the recovered oil and therefore will profit mightily and then we can hate them too.


I see no need to hate someonw for making money off the spill as long as it's cleaning up the oil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:




ESL by LSU.

One to bookmark

That's awesome, i love that site!!!
Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
It does not weary all the time anticyclone over the southeastern United States
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Quoting Patrap:




ESL by LSU.

One to bookmark

thanks got it!!
Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3099. Patrap
Quoting Caribbeanislands101:

very nice, do you mind me asking when i can find that image?




ESL by LSU.

One to bookmark
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
Quoting germemiguel:
GFS Windshear forecast
24h


48h


72h


I would define that as "lifting out"
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3097. hercj
Quoting SavannahStorm:


As long as they don't get em from wherever they got Stephanie Abrams from.

Thank God someone else thinks this.
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Quoting Patrap:

very nice, do you mind me asking when i can find that image?
Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
3095. Patrap
ESL by LSU Animated GOM WV False Color Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
Quoting RecordSeason:
I'm gonna miss Dr. Lyons. This Dr. Knabb talks with his hands too much, and looks too much like "PC" from Apple's Mac vs PC commercials.

What's the other Mets excuse for being there for 20 years and not being a "hurricane expert"?

We need one of those blonde, babelicious type hurricane experts.


As long as they don't get em from wherever they got Stephanie Abrams from.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 2396
3093. Patrap
Atlantic Low Cloud Product (Large)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
Quoting cg2916:
I'm going ahead and saying it:

RIP 92L

I agree, but you have keep an eye just in case ;-)
Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
3091. hercj
Quoting aquak9:


The Gulf of Mexico oil-containment unit that BP is presently using.

Ok that is what I thought. I am of the mind that Costner's machine is on the right track. However, I am also of the mind that whom ever will perfect such a device will claim the rights to the recovered oil and therefore will profit mightily and then we can hate them too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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