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Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Ok so what models are developing what?

I am not on my computer so I do not have my links
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
what in the world is the tropics doing now
Read my blog, it's all there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21375
what in the world is the tropics doing now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15117
Second Blog Entry of the day:

Blog Update!

Hurricane Season Blog #20: Daily Update - Part 2 - ITCZ Disturbance -
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21375
IIRC the CFS is also forecasting a system in the EATL in the GFS's time frame and so was the ECMWF but dropped it.
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big picture up to 612 pm edt next northern hemisphere update at or just after 9 pm

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Quoting Levi32:


I'm pointing out an error that the NHC made. That is not to say I am better, but I will point out their errors. I forgot to mention TPW imagery as well...which also showed trough rather than tropical wave.


I wouldn't consider it an error but more so an act of precaution. The MIMIC-TPW makes things ambiguous as I see a peak moisture surge that comes off the coast of Africa and advects westward. Another smaller peak is noted out ahead of the aforementioned one making it unclear as to the nature of the peaks. You can see they begin intereacting and the small peak gets influence by the cyclonic turning of the larger peak. After reviewing the 5 day movie of the 850mb vorticity my point is further illustrated; you can see a maximum in the 850mb that advect westward but then stalls out within the ITCZ. At first it appears as a tropical wave but the lack of motion overall make it seem more like a perturbation or surface trough within the ITCZ.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32482
Very, very low pressures in the tropics in 2 weeks on the 18z GFS. The 1012mb isobar is north of the Caribbean and the Cape Verde islands, with sub-1010mb pressures across the deep tropics.

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Blog Update! - Brand New!

Hurricane Season Blog #20: Daily Update - Part 2 - ITCZ Disturbance -
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21375
Here we go, 3-day loop of surface analysis....shows the "wave" stalling, which by that token alone proves it's not a tropical wave.
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Jerry...I've got a walrus on my blog....he looks kinda familiar....


;)
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Quoting StormW:
Evening Drak;Levi!


Evening Storm :)
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Quoting Drakoen:


So, they are not perfect. I'm not sure how much they rely on the Windsat anyways. Again it's what convinces them not what convinces you that ultimately matters.


I'm pointing out an error that the NHC made. That is not to say I am better, but I will point out their errors. I forgot to mention TPW imagery as well...which also showed trough rather than tropical wave.
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hi!!!!
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Quoting EnergyMoron:
The hydrates are not a factor in the formation of the underwater plumes. They are caused by the dispersants.

Hydrates are not stable above 500 foot of water depth. The methane IS a pollutant in the sense that it will escape into the atmosphere with a GHG potential 80 times that of CO2. But it is not a factor in the plumes

You can do this in your toilet. Use veggy oil and an environmentally friendly detergent. Oil by itself will form blobs. The dispersants will cause the muck to all flow together since there is polarity in the detergents.

Now, the real question is whether 5 ppm oil will do harm to the marine life.... methinks it better to keep all the gunk on the surface, as unsightly as it is, especially as the dispersants add additional toxity to the system.


Methane hydrates are naturally occurring "ices" and form due to temperature and pressure. While I'm guessing dispersanrts may aid in their formation, they form all on their own; the GOM itself is rich in hydrates
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, I guess persistent 850mb-700mb vorticity, satellite loops, and multiple WindSat passes weren't enough.

The reason why is because they thought it was a tropical wave this whole time....until it refused to move westward. Notice the surface map from 24 hours ago....wave is in the same location. Has been for 2 days. Tropical waves don't stall out over the eastern Atlantic. It was a surface trough the whole time.

This is from 18 hours ago and the "wave" has moved 1 degree longitude westward. A wave may very well have passed through the area during the last couple days but they had the positioning and movements wrong and didn't recognize that most of troughing was not a tropical wave.

18 hours ago:



Current:



So, they are not perfect. I'm not sure how much they rely on the Windsat anyways. Again it's what convinces them not what convinces you that ultimately matters.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32482
ues firefoxs all


you all got too love it
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The ITCZ D is looking a little better:



Here's the AVN loop for it.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
Quoting Drakoen:


The NHC/TPC waited till they had enough evidence to convince them of a trough within the ITCZ.


Yeah, I guess persistent 850mb-700mb vorticity, satellite loops, and multiple WindSat passes weren't enough.

The reason why is because they thought it was a tropical wave this whole time....until it refused to move westward. Notice the surface map from 24 hours ago....wave is in the same location. Has been for 2 days. Tropical waves don't stall out over the eastern Atlantic. It was a surface trough the whole time.

This is from 18 hours ago and the "wave" has moved 1 degree longitude westward. A wave may very well have passed through the area during the last couple days but they had the positioning and movements wrong and didn't recognize that most of troughing was not a tropical wave. Notice the distance this "wave" has traveled compared to every other wave on the map. Something went wrong here.

18 hours ago:



Current:

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Back!

We really need a new name for the ITCZ disturbance because typing "ITCZ Disturbance" over and over gets pretty annoying.

How about "ITCZ D"?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
Quoting Levi32:


Which is finally showing up on the surface map....which is pretty funny since it's been there for at least 2 days.



The NHC/TPC waited till they had enough evidence to convince themselves of a trough within the ITCZ.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32482
Quoting Drakoen:


Surface trough (or wave) within the ITCZ


Which is finally showing up on the surface map....which is pretty funny since it's been there for at least 2 days.

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warning to gulf clean up crews. Dont be BPs collateral damage!!
Member Since: May 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting Levi32:


Well if you meant that it, too, is a wave...it's not a wave.



Surface trough (or wave) within the ITCZ
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32482
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Use the .

I did but it still streatches the blog i dont care what browser you use. One that big streatches it
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1093
Quoting Snowlover123:


Drak, the GFS makes this wave die after the image you just showed.

-Snowlover123


Here's the frame after the one I posted:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32482
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes I know that.


Well if you meant that it, too, is a wave...it's not a wave.

Quoting Drakoen:


The wave is the disturbance
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Quoting Levi32:


The models are not developing the wave coming off Africa, but a feature farther west.



Yes I know that.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32482
Quoting will45:
please dont post images that are 4000x5000 pixels my god link to them instead
Use the .
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21375
Quoting EnergyMoron:
The hydrates are not a factor in the formation of the underwater plumes. They are caused by the dispersants.

Hydrates are not stable above 500 foot of water depth. The methane IS a pollutant in the sense that it will escape into the atmosphere with a GHG potential 80 times that of CO2. But it is not a factor in the plumes

You can do this in your toilet. Use veggy oil and an environmentally friendly detergent. Oil by itself will form blobs. The dispersants will cause the muck to all flow together since there is polarity in the detergents.

Now, the real question is whether 5 ppm oil will do harm to the marine life.... methinks it better to keep all the gunk on the surface, as unsightly as it is, especially as the dispersants add additional toxity to the system.


Well said. AND you can better scoop it off of the surface than you can as an underwater plume.
Member Since: May 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting Levi32:


The models are not developing the wave coming off Africa, but a feature farther west.

Exactly, the ITCZ disturbance. The 18z GFS takes it to a TD/TS with closed isobars (1009 MB) in just 48 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21375
please dont post images that are 4000x5000 pixels my god link to them instead
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1093
Quoting Drakoen:


The wave is the disturbance


The models are not developing the wave coming off Africa, but a feature farther west.

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Okay, I'm leaving, have to go. Bye.

-Snowlover123
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Drak, the GFS makes this wave die after the image you just showed.

-Snowlover123
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324. xcool
ha
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Blog is dead...
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Quoting Drakoen:


The wave is the disturbance


Cool. I don't think it'll develop though.
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Thanks Stormchaser and JLPR
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32482
Quoting Drakoen:


The wave is the disturbance
Ok.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21375
Quoting EnergyMoron:
The hydrates are not a factor in the formation of the underwater plumes. They are caused by the dispersants.

Hydrates are not stable above 500 foot of water depth. The methane IS a pollutant in the sense that it will escape into the atmosphere with a GHG potential 80 times that of CO2. But it is not a factor in the plumes

You can do this in your toilet. Use veggy oil and an environmentally friendly detergent. Oil by itself will form blobs. The dispersants will cause the muck to all flow together since there is polarity in the detergents.

Now, the real question is whether 5 ppm oil will do harm to the marine life.... methinks it better to keep all the gunk on the surface, as unsightly as it is, especially as the dispersants add additional toxity to the system.


Hey bud. Co2 is what somes out when you exhale. It's a horrible pollutant that trees suck up like it's candy.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is developing the ITCZ disturbance, not a wave, correct?


The wave is the disturbance
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32482
317. JLPR2
Quoting Drakoen:
Could someone send me the link to the Navy eastern atlantic view? I'm not on my computer right now.


this?
Link
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Quoting Drakoen:
Could someone send me the link to the Navy eastern atlantic view? I'm not on my computer right now.


Link
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315. xcool



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Quoting JLPR2:


looks like a large system


We'll get plenty of those this season. However storms usually start out small in the tropics and increase in size as they move poleward.
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313. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is developing the ITCZ disturbance, not a wave, correct?


Actually it drops it soon after that :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The hydrates are not a factor in the formation of the underwater plumes. They are caused by the dispersants.

Hydrates are not stable above 500 foot of water depth. The methane IS a pollutant in the sense that it will escape into the atmosphere with a GHG potential 80 times that of CO2. But it is not a factor in the plumes

You can do this in your toilet. Use veggy oil and an environmentally friendly detergent. Oil by itself will form blobs. The dispersants will cause the muck to all flow together since there is polarity in the detergents.

Now, the real question is whether 5 ppm oil will do harm to the marine life.... methinks it better to keep all the gunk on the surface, as unsightly as it is, especially as the dispersants add additional toxity to the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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