Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Quoting gator23:

im not really seeing any talent out there the Marlins are killing you.


This is a Weather Blog tonite...not a sports blog......stick with the Weather tonite...tomorrow could be something different.

LOL
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Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin come now you know doooo lmao
Hey xcool.Just got my new keyboard.It lights up in the dark to.Perfect for typing.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
glad there is nothing to talk about out there because I do not want it to interfere with my World Cup watching. GO USA can not wait for tomorrow haha.


system out by 30W has several models developing it over the next few days
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glad there is nothing to talk about out there because I do not want it to interfere with my World Cup watching. GO USA can not wait for tomorrow haha.
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Quoting gator23:

Lets live in the present. How did Tampa Bay do at the Series?


That isn't in the present either lol

WHO has the best record in baseball NOW is all that matters.
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Quoting gator23:

you obviously have not been on this blog during football season.


nope I haven't
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia

What was the smallest tropical system ever recorded?

A. Ivan 2004
B. Katrina 2005
C. Dean 2007
D. Marco 2008


D Marco
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Hurricane Trivia

What was the smallest tropical system ever recorded?

A. Ivan 2004
B. Katrina 2005
C. Dean 2007
D. Marco 2008
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
600. xcool
gator23 lmao
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Quoting gator23:

You play us 2 times a year and you choke.


Take the crap talking on sports elsewhere, it really looks out of place here
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Quoting gator23:

Just look at the world series record who has the best of them all.


wow talk about living in the past lol

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


It works both ways. The fact that rising temperatures can create a massive release of CO2 from the oceans as it is less able to hold CO2 when warm presents a dangerous positive feedback. If global temperatures didn't warm after CO2 levels rose then this would defy the laws of physics which requires a balance in the net radiation budget that we learned about in the 18th century.


I agree that it is all about radiation for sure :)

I just keep thinking of those bugs and flowers found (DNA verified) at the bottom, in the mud, of the deep ice core samples from Greenland. Then again, the tree remnants on the northern shores of the same, create similar questions.

L8R out>

Unstoppable Solar Cycles
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Quoting 7544:


at the moment = atm
Okay gotcha.
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594. xcool
TampaSpin come now you know doooo lmao
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Quoting MrsOsa:
491 Homelesswanderer

Interesting tidbit. I noticed that some of the hurricane symbols on Kermit are "backwards". I'm assuming these are all storms flown in the southern hemisphere where they turn clockwise? Pretty neat.


That is neat! Didn't notice that before. :) Didn't notice A LOT of things til I zoomed in on it. Like the one that says EPAC. Guess that answered my question about flying through other basins. Lol. Nothing gets by me. :)
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
since the BP stock is down, causing the Brits to lose their retirement funds and we all know they are ticked off at Obama, do you think they will beat us like a rented mule tomorrow in the World Cup?

All 100 million of them are ticked off at Obama.
1.Why
2.They would have beat us anyway.
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Quoting gator23:


Turn on the TV the Marlins are killing you.


YA, yA I SEEN that.....Just a bad game...they all have them....Just look at the win/loss record.....and who has the best of them all.
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since the BP stock is down, causing the Brits to lose their retirement funds and we all know they are ticked off at Obama, do you think they will beat us like a rented mule tomorrow in the World Cup?
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There is an increasing possibility of having Alex by the end of next week.
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Quoting will45:


a hurricane hunter aircraft


but not to be confused with the Hurricane Hunters out of Keesler
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585. 7544
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
What dose atm stand for.Anyway I still think we have a chance of getting Alex maybe mid-late june.This blog needs a storm to track to keep everyone focus.


at the moment = atm
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Quoting pottery:
Evening pottery.
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Nope i don't see anything really out there.....sorry i thought someone was talking about an Invest.........just jumped to conclusions....LOL
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Turn up yur speakers, and get some Excersise!!!
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What dose atm stand for.Anyway I still think we have a chance of getting Alex maybe mid-late june.This blog needs a storm to track to keep everyone focus.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone......do we have a likely invest coming.....is it the one at 40W as i said this morning......i just got home


Turn on the TV the Marlins are killing you.
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what's kermit?

A hurricane plane that they send into the eye of hurricanes to gather measurements.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
All quiet in WUland...


It's WUnderland. :P
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Quoting gator23:

whats Kermit?


a hurricane hunter aircraft
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Quoting Walshy:
This Texas storm was showing 120mph winds+ a few frames back.

Link


Washy, this storm is in Kansas :o)!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


True enough. The more development that occurs, the greater the moisture impact will be across the Windward and Leeward Islands.


However, if the wave doesn't develop, it will hit Venezuela.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone......do we have a likely invest coming.....is it the one at 40W as i said this morning......i just got home
If the modles continue to be consistant,and the wave becomes better organized over the next few days,then we might have a invest.
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572. JRRP
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Quoting SiestaKeySam:


Yes, it breaks it apart, and then it continues it on a WNW movement.


Oh no, Haiti?!
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Quoting MrsOsa:
491 Homelesswanderer

Interesting tidbit. I noticed that some of the hurricane symbols on Kermit are "backwards". I'm assuming these are all storms flown in the southern hemisphere where they turn clockwise? Pretty neat.

whats Kermit?
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Quoting Ossqss:
525 ATMO

Thanks for the insight.

Let's test it :)

A study: The temperature rise has caused the CO2 Increase, not the other way around


It works both ways. The fact that rising temperatures can create a massive release of CO2 from the oceans as it is less able to hold CO2 when warm presents a dangerous positive feedback. If global temperatures didn't warm after CO2 levels rose then this would defy the laws of physics which requires a balance in the net radiation budget that we learned about in the 18th century.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening everyone......do we have a likely invest coming.....is it the one at 40W as i said this morning......i just got home
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
491 Homelesswanderer

Interesting tidbit. I noticed that some of the hurricane symbols on Kermit are "backwards". I'm assuming these are all storms flown in the southern hemisphere where they turn clockwise? Pretty neat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks 456 and Drakoen for the answers to the invest question.

I want to say that discussions about different thinking of the tropics is enlighting and educational to those who dont know a lot about the theme of tropical waves / surface troughs that Levi and Drakoen did earlier.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16113
Quoting Seastep:
Now I get it. I never use the /-. Only the ! when warranted.

Why anyone would read based on a filter based on the opinion of anonymous individuals is beyond me.

And, really, that should be the default setting.


Most of the time I keep mine on show all and only "ignore" the trolls that aren't entertaining. Come the peek of the season and a couple storms popping I can crank it up pretty high. Cuts out a lot of background noise. I also make it my business to lurk as I know very little that is helpful to anyone else.

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All quiet in WUland...
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Quoting 7544:
looking at the wv wave at 30 west does have alot of moisture to work with atm so it could have a chance to become 92l right ?


Yes. Shear is favorable in the near-term (next several days).
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This Texas storm was showing 120mph winds+ a few frames back.

Link
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Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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