Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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662. xcool
Weather456 ok kool.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting gator23:

Its ok lets talk about facts
1)You guys want a new stadium we are building ours
2)You wish they were the"TAMPA" Rays we will be the Miami Marlins
3)You wanted to beat the Phillies but got swept WE sweep them all the time.


YOU are way to knowledgeable to be on a weather blog......You might be really dangerous at forecasting.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
660. xcool
TampaSpin haha i'm not ready for 49..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


::Whispers to Gator23:: Yes, I meant NEW ENGLAND :P


LMAO! you never can tell with this blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
weather456 your bored huh??.


Nope...I am working on my blog for Sunday. No use wasting these quiet times....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
656. 7544
xcool we need a invest lol
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655. xcool
weather456 your bored huh ??
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin lmaooooo crazy old man haha


Hey now.......49 is not old i hope.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia 3/5

NAME THIS HURRICANE!



A. Erin
B. Ike
C. Katrina
D. Hazel


Erin, 2001.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
650. xcool
weather456 your bored huh??.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting TampaSpin:


YOU KNOW i am a Sports freak.....YOU won't get off the hook that easy either......this will resume Tomorrow....not a week from Sunday.....LMAO

Its ok lets talk about facts
1)You guys want a new stadium we are building ours
2)You wish they were the"TAMPA" Rays we will be the Miami Marlins
3)You wanted to beat the Phillies but got swept WE sweep them all the time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia 3/5

NAME THIS HURRICANE!



A. Erin
B. Ike
C. Katrina
D. Hazel


B) Ike
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Uh...what about next week? LMAO

What about next week? I really dont think we will see Alex out of that. Not really concerned about it. Needs to show me a lot more before I jump on the bandwagon and wishcast it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Uh...what about next week? LMAO


The odds are against our CV wave next week. If it was something that had a bit more model and conditional support then I would be more confident.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia

In the 1950's, one hurricane costed the USA $460 million in damage, and left 60 dead. What was that hurricane?

A. Dolly
B. Florence
C. Carol
D. Eight


Carol, maybe? Not sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
642. xcool
TampaSpin lmaooooo crazy old man haha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
641. beell

18Z GFS 500mb 00hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting docrod:


Thank you Pottery - I love this and only rarely get to see this in person. The competition is extraordinary and very real. - again - thanks -
Rod (Florida Keys)
Glad you enjoyed it!
There are lots of good ones on UTube, (and some very bed ones too)
The same tune, done by BP Renegades that same year was fantastic. A different arrangement entirely.
I would have put it up, but the BP thing would have annoyed people!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
639. xcool
30w i give a 10%
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting gator23:

LMAO!!! Love you Tampa thanks for letting me bait you. haha you rock man. Ok we will resume this lets say a week from Sunday.


YOU KNOW i am a Sports freak.....YOU won't get off the hook that easy either......this will resume Tomorrow....not a week from Sunday.....LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
637. xcool
Baltimorebirds hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Right Again! Yes, Hurricane Carol tracked close to NC and then up into England.

::Whispers to Winter:: I think you mean NEW ENGLAND
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia

In the 1950's, one hurricane costed the USA $460 million in damage, and left 60 dead. What was that hurricane?

A. Dolly
B. Florence
C. Carol
D. Eight

Florence. Nightingale...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia

In the 1950's, one hurricane costed the USA $460 million in damage, and left 60 dead. What was that hurricane?

A. Dolly
B. Florence
C. Carol
D. Eight


Hurricane Carol (C)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is starting to look like the last week of June or July before we see our first storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all! Sees the possibility of a CV June Tropical Cyclone exists..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia

In the 1950's, one hurricane costed the USA $460 million in damage, and left 60 dead. What was that hurricane?

A. Dolly
B. Florence
C. Carol
D. Eight

Florence?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi 456. Any possibility it gets strong enough that shear would not effect it ?


Not likely.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia

In the 1950's, one hurricane costed the USA $460 million in damage, and left 60 dead. What was that hurricane?

A. Dolly
B. Florence
C. Carol
D. Eight


C) Carol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:

Katrina 2005


/hides


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
624. xcool
i'm back my son going crazy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia

What was the smallest tropical system ever recorded?

A. Ivan 2004
B. Katrina 2005
C. Dean 2007
D. Marco 2008

Katrina 2005


/hides
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
621. JRRP
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Trivia

What was the smallest tropical system ever recorded?

A. Ivan 2004
B. Katrina 2005
C. Dean 2007
D. Marco 2008

D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


This is a Weather Blog tonite...not a sports blog......stick with the Weather tonite...tomorrow could be something different.

LOL

LMAO!!! Love you Tampa thanks for letting me bait you. haha you rock man. Ok we will resume this lets say a week from Sunday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
The 18Z GFS is plausible with a some deepening occurring for the first few days until it reaches hostile conditions further west and open up before reaching the islands. Lot's of moisture for the Lesser Antilles next week.
Hi 456. Any possibility it gets strong enough that shear would not effect it ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


system out by 30W has several models developing it over the next few days

Yea wont even think about that one for about a week and it may be an invest but I doubt it turns out to be more than that. Once it gets close to the islands it goes bye bye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:


Thank you Pottery - I love this and only rarely get to see this in person. The competition is extraordinary and very real. - again - thanks -
Rod (Florida Keys)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


hey!! why doesn't ur non-sports loving self go STFU!!


I love sports actually, calm down lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

im not really seeing any talent out there the Marlins are killing you.


This is a Weather Blog tonite...not a sports blog......stick with the Weather tonite...tomorrow could be something different.

LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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