Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Here's my update, took a little longer than I expected.. just got some bad news. One of my relatives has passed away so I might not be here for a few days.

Tropical Update 6/12/10
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I was comparing the SST maps of June 4 with June 11 and noticed that:

(1) The area Above 20N and Left of 50W got much hotter.

(2) Area (10N - 20N) and (40W-80W) cooled off some.

(3) Left of 80W in Carribean about the same.

Is #1 primarily due to High pressure and the peripherals of the high are causing #2?

SSTs GOM & the Bahamas are really cooking.
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Quoting Weather456:


It's too late...when we have a wave showing signs of development in June it does not bode well for the season ahead. It looks more like July 12 out there doing a tropical update on the tropical Atlantic.


Agree.

I think about 7 to 10 days from now the Atlantic is going to awaken from it's slumber in a rude in your face kinda way.
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1059. ricderr
well...what i read from you is that satellite imagery and its predication of a season. H season last 6 months and as such there's no way today's imagery will reflect conditions later in the season.
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Quoting ricderr:
The actually satellite prensentations is what really is showing the signs of an active season. B

ahem....wouldn't a satellite image show current conditions or conditions that are either favorable or not favorable at present time for activity. Conditions change and as such sattelite imagery shows the present, hints at chances or non chances for activity, but not the future.


Read what hurricanes101 posted
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Quoting ricderr:
The actually satellite prensentations is what really is showing the signs of an active season. B

ahem....wouldn't a satellite image show current conditions or conditions that are either favorable or not favorable at present time for activity. Conditions change and as such sattelite imagery shows the present, hints at chances or non chances for activity, but not the future.


Read what hurricanes101 posted
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My blackberry is messin up my posts
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Quoting ricderr:
The actually satellite prensentations is what really is showing the signs of an active season. B

ahem....wouldn't a satellite image show current conditions or conditions that are either favorable or not favorable at present time for activity. Conditions change and as such sattelite imagery shows the present, hints at chances or non chances for activity, but not the future.


Actually I agree with him. He isn't saying satellite presentation of this wave can predict the future, but if we can have a wave this organized out in the Central Atlantic this early in the season, it really is a sign of how active this season will be considering all the other factors.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7900
Back Later
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1053. ricderr
The actually satellite prensentations is what really is showing the signs of an active season. B

ahem....wouldn't a satellite image show current conditions or conditions that are either favorable or not favorable at present time for activity. Conditions change and as such sattelite imagery shows the present, hints at chances or non chances for activity, but not the future.
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Quoting IKE:
SBG...I understand your point. I'd call it guilt by association. I'll still avoid BP.


Me too. It stinks for those that own the stations, but if there is a BP symbol on the door I'm not going in.
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This map shows the Twave near 35 moving W but the low as being stationary where it has been now for the past 24 hours or so.

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My blackberry is messin up my posts
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Although unlikely to amount to anything, its still a telling sign for a tropical to wave to
A) Have model support to develop in June
B) Be organizing out in the Tropical Atlantic in June

Telling sign of the season to come. Tropical Waves trying to develop in early June.


A is not valid since models develop waves in the atl every year in june inactive or active. In addition a sole model would not be classified as model support.

The actually satellite presentations is what really is showing the signs of an active season. B
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Quoting indianrivguy:


almost made Maxwell House coffee come out my nose...


Community coffee here- have to wash off my beard too! :))
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Good morning

It looks like we have some weak action in the CATL. Something to watch for persistence but the low is far South



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Quoting Weather456:


Although unlikely to amount to anything, its still a telling sign for a tropical to wave to
A) Have model support to develop in June
B) Be organizing out in the Tropical Atlantic in June

Telling sign of the season to come. Tropical Waves trying to develop in early June.
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Quoting Autistic2:
regarding post 1028

How can something so pretty be so terrible,

Reminds me of a woman I knew once......



almost made Maxwell House coffee come out my nose...
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1041. SLU
Looks like our new invest pretty soon
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1040. pottery
Morning, 456.
I see you had some showers early...
Sunny dawn here, with a little high hazy stuff overhead now.
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1039. pottery
Quoting calder:


red bull is terrible for the body! Why don't you just take vitamin B?!

True.
A couple of B tablets, and a half-pound of sugar will have the same effects and be no worse for the body.
Cheaper too....
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1037. calder
Quoting Autistic2:
regarding post 1028

How can something so pretty be so terrible,

Reminds me of a woman I knew once......



I hear you!
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1036. pottery
Quoting Autistic2:
regarding post 1028

How can something so pretty be so terrible,

Reminds me of a woman I knew once......


You're a braver man than me, Gunga Din!!
heheheheh
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1035. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:
regarding post 1028

How can something so pretty be so terrible,

Reminds me of a woman I knew once......



LOL.

Oil is everywhere out there. How is it suppose to avoid land when it's an onshore flow for the next 2-3 months?

No way it avoids it.
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regarding post 1028

How can something so pretty be so terrible,

Reminds me of a woman I knew once......

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1033. calder
Quoting K8eCane:
you may think i'm joking but i'm not. The closest station to me is a BP and they sell 2 16oz Red Bull for 6.00 so i still buy that every other day. Im prone to anemia and its full of B vitamins


red bull is terrible for the body! Why don't you just take vitamin B?!
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1032. IKE
How is that oil in the picture just above, in post 1028, suppose to miss winding up on the coast?



"Latest Gulf oil spill forecast: Onshore winds push slick toward barrier islands, Panhandle
Published: Saturday, June 12, 2010, 7:25 AM Updated: Saturday, June 12, 2010, 7:30 AM


NOAA surface oil forecast: Onshore (SE/S/SW) winds are forecast to continue into next week at speeds <10 knots. Persistent onshore winds have resulted in northward movement of the slick towards the Mississippi/Alabama barrier islands and the Florida Panhandle. Coastal regions in Mississippi Sound west of Freeport
may continue to experience shoreline contacts throughout this forecast period. Persistent southeasterly winds are also resulting in movement of oil towards the Chandeleur Islands, Breton Sound, and the Mississippi Delta. These regions are also threatened by shoreline contacts within this forecast period."


Forecast for Monday...watch out for oil!


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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. NW into the Bay of Honduras ?


That would be North into the Gulf of Honduras.

NW would carry it into further into CA particularly Mexico/Gulf of Techuantepec or Bay of Campeche with little or no development expected.
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1030. K8eCane
you may think i'm joking but i'm not. The closest station to me is a BP and they sell 2 16oz Red Bull for 6.00 so i still buy that every other day. Im prone to anemia and its full of B vitamins
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Quoting IKE:


If you know them and there your friends, I don't blame you. I don't know anybody at any BP station personally.

Not that many mom and pop operations left here...and what there is is usually higher then other places.


They will be fine(I hope) as the machine shop does well. They are the only FULL SERVICE station left I know of. Remember, someone to pum the gas, clean front and back windows, check oil and ask about tire pressure, and pay the guy out side. Don't have to get out of the car if you dont want to.. Yes the gas I buy is about 10cent per gallon more but is is ethonal free. Only the silver, the other two have the 10% mix. Here in fla you are allowed to sell ethnol free gas for marine use.

I tried it in my car and never went back. Maybee a newer car wont care but mine runs better on ethinol free
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1028. IKE


(AP Photo/The Pensacola News Journal, Katie King)Large and colorful oil plumes can be seen floating near the surface of the water about 6-10 miles south of Pensacola Pass in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, June 11, 2010. According to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, the plume is two miles wide and stretches 40 miles into the Gulf.
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Have a Blessed day everyone.Good blog update 456.
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1026. DDR
Quoting Weather456:


Heavy showers woke me up this morning :)

Nice!!
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Quoting Weather456:


That area was also included in the update. It is likely to continue NW.
Thanks. NW into the Bay of Honduras ?
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Two edge sword is what I meant.
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Quoting DDR:
Hello
456 good update.
Did you get some showers this morning?


Heavy showers woke me up this morning :)
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1022. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:


Irony

The only store with in 40 mmiles that sells ethnol free gas for marine use is a small bp station. I asked. Was told 90% of profit comes from the machine shop and inside sales. I LIKE the owners and have known them for 40 years! I will still buy my boat (small) and auto gas there. They did nothing wrong. BP did


If you know them and there your friends, I don't blame you. I don't know anybody at any BP station personally.

Not that many mom and pop operations left here...and what there is is usually higher then other places.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Anything happening with the blob east of Nicaragua/Honduras ?


That area was also included in the update. It is likely to continue NW.
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Quoting SBG:


As consumers you can do what you want but did you know that most of the stations are NOT corporate owned. They are mom and pop places owned by ordinary people, just like those being economically impacted on the coast. None of this is their fault so why blame and take it out on them.

With all due respect, I certainly get people not wanting to buy BP gas and give them money, but why take it out on station owners. I have a client who owns a gas station and he told me the money is not made on gas because the markups are small and regulated. The money is made on the stuff in the store. So don't buy the gas, but buy a pack of gum or cup of coffee. These people have kids and families that are being hurt by this just like the Gulf fisherman.

By the way- define irony. While we rip BP and yes I have done it most of us are VERY small owners of BP. That's right look at your mutual fund holdings. You will likely find that at least one of them has shares of BP. The funds in my kids' 529 plans have BP shares in them. While part of me wants no dividends paid because the board members are the biggest shareholders, I do want those dividends paid to my mutual funds.

If the BP board really cared about doing the right thing they would pay the dividend because it is not fair not to to Mr. and Mrs. American Gothic who are retired, own a few hundred shares and count on the quarterly dividend to pay their quarterly water bill. However, at the same time, the board should donate their dividends to help those impacted by this while at the same time taking enough responsibility to stop taking their multi million dollar salaries.
I can see the Headlines now. BP Station Owners in line with Gulf Fisherman to file claims for lost wages due to Gulf Oil Spill
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:



eeekthanks for letting me know, I had not seen that yet this morning...sigh
I knew it was a matter of time for Mississippi to start seeing tar balls.Boy BP has really done a whammy this time.I was thinking how we all say we want use BP again,if we do that then they will for sure bankrupt and therefore we will get stuck with the bill again.It is kind of like a two edged dword. But with cuts that hurt.Just my brain trying to figure this all out.LOL!!!!!!!!!MY brain working.Right!!!!!!!!!
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1018. calder
does some blame not have to lie with transocean or halliburton?
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1017. DDR
Hello
456 good update.
Did you get some showers this morning?
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Quoting Weather456:


It's too late...when we have a wave showing signs of development in June it does not bode well for the season ahead. It looks more like July 12 out there doing a tropical update on the tropical Atlantic.
Anything happening with the blob east of Nicaragua/Honduras ?
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Quoting IKE:
SBG...I understand your point. I'd call it guilt by association. I'll still avoid BP.


Irony

The only store with in 40 mmiles that sells ethnol free gas for marine use is a small bp station. I asked. Was told 90% of profit comes from the machine shop and inside sales. I LIKE the owners and have known them for 40 years! I will still buy my boat (small) and auto gas there. They did nothing wrong. BP did
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1013. IKE
SBG...I understand your point. I'd call it guilt by association. I'll still avoid BP.
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Quoting scott39:
Thanks 456, Lets hope the shear keeps coming for now!


It's too late...when we have a wave showing signs of development in June it does not bode well for the season ahead. It looks more like July 12 out there doing a tropical update on the tropical Atlantic.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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