Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Welcome to you on the Isla de Utila,

Blog is moving fast so I think your question was missed.

StormW or someone have a comment about this area

thanks
CRS


surface speed convergence at the rear of a passing tropical wave...there are no signs of circulation over Honduras. Vort associated with the wave is moving into N CA.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Yes all about the shear.The sheer makes the finally decision.
Yup.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1409. unf97
Good afternoon everyone! I hope everyone is having a good start to the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Old but good.

14:45 UTC
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI
XX/XX/XL
MARK
6.3N/35.6W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767
1403. bjdsrq
Quoting Patrap:
I guess a NUKE will raise the GOM SST's

Best alert the SWAT teams to that un..

LOL

A Nuke on a Basalt sea floor...?


Yup..there's ya answer.


pfffftttt..


You think I'm kidding? I believe the nuke idea is WAY crazy BS too, but some hi-profile folks are *actually* proposing that a nuke be used seal the well. I'm not kidding. They said the former Soviet union did it successfully more than once, and we should too. Of course, the Soviets never disclosed how this affected the environment or people.

I wonder if you can get re-elected after using a nuke 40 miles offshore NOLA? I wonder if a nuke underwater is good for the seafood industry? Time to Google "Bikini Atol". ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting utilaeastwind:
What do you guys think of the activity associated with the tropical wave over Honduras?

It looks like low pressure is forming over central Honduras and moving northward.

I am at 16.1 N 86.9W and we are getting about 25kt winds from the SE.


Welcome to you on the Isla de Utila, (just SW of Roatan)

Blog is moving fast so I think your question was missed.

StormW or someone have a comment about this area?

thanks
CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
1401. beell
GFS has wanted to model the best vorticity with these last 3-4 waves at the apex. When in reality, the spin has remained farther S down the wave axis. Closer to the ITCZ. I suppose that it will be correct sooner or later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NASA101:
It better start moving more noth of WNW if it's to hit PR and north of that!
Do not trust any models with a wave yet to cross 40W...
Wait and see..my guess, it stays south of ~17N around 65W...but then I am just an informed armchair observer! :)


Did you take a look at the WV imagery?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


The CMC is reasonable, just not the likely solution to occur as the system would have to deepen and develop at fast rates.
That's what I meant, reasonable was the wrong word, "likely" sounds better.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I have to disagree with the CMC. At the moment I don't know which model is being most reasonable, but I'm going to go with the NOGAPS or GFS.


The CMC is reasonable, just not the likely solution to occur as the system would have to deepen and develop at fast rates.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
By the way, I woke up with a dream Friday morning that I was in a giant riverbed and huge monster pieces of equipment were coming toward me...I looked behind me and cars were under water. Climbed out of the riverbed up a steep slope and followed bird prints along a sandy path along a ridge of the crevasse. Then I find out about the AR flooding. It just occurred to me today to check my diary about the time I wrote that dream, and yep, it was Friday morning!
...A woman who survived said she heard flapping in her cabin (probably the water coming in but she thought it was an angel's wings) and when she saw the water coming in under the door, woke everybody up, and they managed to escape.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1396. NASA101
It better start moving more noth of WNW if it's to hit PR and north of that!
Do not trust any models with a wave yet to cross 40W...
Wait and see..my guess, it stays south of ~17N around 65W...but then I am just an informed armchair observer! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
The CMC thinks the system will be deep enough to maintain a strong enough ridge to aid in development even in destructive shear.
I have to disagree with the CMC. At the moment I don't know which model is being most reasonable, but I'm going to go with the NOGAPS or GFS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1394. 7544
thanks strom w just try to keep it away from hati plz
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6810
1393. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767
1392. leo305
with convection beginning to go boom over the supposed center.. I suspect an invest.. soon..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im still waiting for the EMCWF 12z from today, somebody mentioned a "RUC" model from earlier, but I am unfamiliar with that.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1390. beell
Lots of folks used to sell Texaco branded gasoline. Now they sell Chevron.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The CMC thinks the system will be deep enough to maintain a strong enough ridge to aid in development even in destructive shear. I'll have to admit it's being reasonable.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
12z Cyclone Formation Possibility has increased.

12z
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
850 vort is stronger

Yes, looks nice.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Jun 12, 11:53 am CDT

A Few Clouds

91 °F
(33 °C)
Humidity: 59 %
Wind Speed: W 13 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 30.03" (1016.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Heat Index: 102 °F (39 °C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.


Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...VERY HOT AND HUMID IN CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...

.VERY HOT AND HUMID SURGED INTO INDIANA ON SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHEST IN THE VINCENNES AREA WHERE THERE WAS
MORE SUNSHINE THAN ELSEWHERE.

INZ060-061-067>069-122300-
/O.NEW.KIND.HT.Y.0001.100612T1708Z-100612T2300Z/
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...VINCENNES
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURE: HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WITH HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES 100-105 THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: EXPECT EXTREMELY SULTRY CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

&&

$$






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


GFS is showing to be the worse by far this season..
The upgrade has yet to come out, wait until then and then voice your opinion.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Weather456:


Only 1 model develops the wave.


I thought the NOGAPS (lol) did as well. The NAM has yet to endorse this AOI, and GFS shows spinning vorticity for a day or two but no development noted.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1382. Patrap
I guess a NUKE will raise the GOM SST's

Best alert the SWAT teams to that un..

LOL

A Nuke on a Basalt sea floor...?


Yup..there's ya answer.


pfffftttt..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And if you are not a model fan, take a look at the wv imagery and let me know where the flow at 40W is showing.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
BP didn't take this seriously from the start, imo. So accustomed to human casualties and safety breaches it appears as if they just chalked it up as one more mishap.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1379. leo305
Quoting NASA101:
Also, historically, CMC model is one of the worst ones out there!!


GFS is showing to be the worse by far this season..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
850 vort is stronger

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Quoting NASA101:
Weather456:

Don't see this going to Bahamas; Wave to too far south and - High pressures are forecast for the next 2 weeks on South East of the USA -hence the very warm temperatures for that region!
Way too early to say where is this wave going apart from hitting the Lower Antilles!?


could and should are two different words.

Did you look at the models? Take a look at the GFS, EURO, CMC and then come back and tell me what they show.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


Only 1 model develops the wave.
Yes, only the CMC has it at that strong of an intensity.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1375. bjdsrq
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Well the idiocy was not enforcing the regulations in the first place - hardly Obama's fault - esp considering the WH was just occupied by "Oil Experts" and you are not going to sell anyone that their alternative is better than this.

Drill baby drill? right.


No drill baby opinion from me at all, unless it was on the ground in Anwar where this would have been stopped within 5 days rather than 5 months. We have to honestly admit the oil industry is much better prepared in technical expertise, equipment, and financial reserves to deal with this disaster than the Fed govt. Fed's have nothing to useful offer... unless of course they choose to nuke the well. Then they can provide the nukes.
(Done w/ you)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


In other words, if and when it does happen it would be a first or atleast rare.


Yes im not implying this will be the first, but eventually it will happen.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1373. NASA101
Also, historically, CMC model is one of the worst ones out there!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:
the NHC should atleast put a 0% circle around it.. but with CMC being so consistent on it forming, along with some other models, I would say a strong yellow or even orange is necessay for 2PM.


Only 1 model develops the wave.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC is being more reasonable than usual, closing off the low but keeping its intensity moderated by wind shear.
Looks like a weak tropical storm as it approaches the northern Antilles and U.S Virgin Islands.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1370. leo305
Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC is being more reasonable than usual, closing off the low but keeping its intensity moderated by wind shear.


the system will by pass the shear once it gets to the antilles (maybe why its forecasted to strengthen there, after the gradual strengthening over the atlantic)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1369. NASA101
Weather456:

Don't see this going to Bahamas; Wave to too far south and - High pressures are forecast for the next 2 weeks on South East of the USA -hence the very warm temperatures for that region!
Way too early to say where is this wave going apart from hitting the Lower Antilles!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


In other words, if and when it does happen it would be a first or atleast rare.
Yup.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1367. Levi32
12z CMC is being more reasonable than usual, closing off the low but keeping its intensity moderated by wind shear as it crosses the islands.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26646



Did Drak and Levi get the "trough/wave" debate resolved between them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I was reading the thread earlier about boycotting BP and wanted to make a couple of points. While it's certainly not fair to the individual station owners who bear no responsibility for the on-going disaster in the gulf it is completely understandable to want to hurt the company any way we can and boycotts are good for that. However knee-jerk reactions are seldom good. About the last thing we need right now is for BP to go out of business. If they implode, the American taxpayers will be on the hook for the clean-up bill. We need BP to survive at least in the near-term, if only to keep writing the checks. Patrap said earlier BP was negligent and criminal. Negligent most certainly, criminality will be determined in the investigation. I'm all for the investigation and if BP's actions are found to be criminal, then put 'em in jail. While they are investigating, lets make sure they take a look governments oversight as well. There may be some "crimanl negligence" there too.
My grandfather owns 6 BP station here in Miami.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1364. hydrus
I read Years ago that if a system becomes a depression east of the Antilles, it has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the Caribbean.
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Quoting MrstormX:


There is a first for everything


In other words, if and when it does happen it would be a first or atleast rare.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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