Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Quoting btwntx08:


yawn


Mail me, it seems you have an issue past couple days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3011. Drakoen
Hurricane models always seem to have a poleward bias in the tropical Atlantic... ie Dean 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
When do the 00z models come out?

Its been a while...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting StormW:


Right now, continue it on a WNW motion toward the northern Lesser Antilles...and a few bring it to hurricane strength. But initial model guidance isn't too reliable, until the models have a couple runs to work with the system.
Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Too far east.


Huh?
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Quoting Twinkster:
anybody have satellite imagery of pre-hurricane bill from last year


Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
3005. xcool
PcolaDan ha
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Quoting xcool:
can we give credit to cmc model?


A broken watch is right twice a day.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I believe when the MOdels get a couple of runs under them....a further WEsterly track will result into the Caribbean...IMO


I just hope this thing doesn't get into the Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We might have a TD tomorrow sometime, wow.. June, not July nor August. This is incredible and a very good sign that we have a potentially active season upon us.
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I think the only chance 92L has of maintaining and developing long term is for it to slow in forward speed and let conditions subdue some in the Carib.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
You would think, with all this hoopla that there would be a floater on it at least.
Too far east.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV
INV/92/L
MARK
7.2N/33.5W
Just when I think convection is going to wane it just continues to pop.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting xcool:
can we give credit to cmc model?


Some, but it did go overboard a bit.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
You would think, with all this hoopla that there would be a floater on it at least.
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I believe when the MOdels get a couple of runs under them....a further WEsterly track will result into the Caribbean...IMO
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Quoting xcool:
can we give credit to cmc model?


Not with the economy as bad as it is. They need a better score. ;)
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anybody have satellite imagery of pre-hurricane bill from last year
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2992. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV
INV/92/L
MARK
7.2N/33.5W
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2991. xcool
can we give credit to cmc model?
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Quoting leo305:


it should curve a bit to the north once it reaches that band of shear, and the trough up to the north should also gravitate it northwards, then it should move back to the WNW, and eventually almost due west.. the scary part is what strength will it be when it reaches that band of shear
I'm not so sold that there is a band of shear there. The CIMSS map shows shear while this one doesn't.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
In the past storms have had a hard time in the s/e Caribbean. Why is that and will 92L have the same problem?
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2988. Ossqss
Quoting Levi32:
I am quite frankly stunned and amazed at what has happened to the ITCZ during the course of a day. What we're seeing on satellite pics right now is really incredible for June.

24 hours ago:



12 hours ago:



Current:




Makes ya wonder if we have a new equator, frankly.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So here we go again! Another year and an early ball rolling across the bowling alley. Seems like a clear path to the middle of the Lesser Antilles....it does not look like much of an obstacle course, but who knows what will rear its head...shear,pressure shifts etc....yet so big it looks like it could barge through.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L, wowowowowowowwww!

What really concerns me is how early this is occurring in the game (if this was in the western Caribbean, wouldn't be as interesting), tropical cyclone this far east in June.

Another sign of an active season ahead.

Anyone know if the Caribbean TUTT for invest 92-L will lift out, or will the 200 mb anticyclone expanded westward beyond 50W? Does the strength of this 200 mb anticyclone also depend on if the system develops (stronger system means more anticyclone, weak system means weaker anticyclone)
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Quoting Levi32:
I am quite frankly stunned and amazed at what has happened to the ITCZ during the course of a day. What we're seeing on satellite pics right now is really incredible for June.

24 hours ago:



12 hours ago:



Current:


Amazing!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2984. centex
Quoting nocaneindy:


Just shows that climatology is just as good as the conditions warrent, imo. Weather recognizes no calender or historical input, and is why I love it so!!
Just shows how no matter what some will hype. I would not note minor climatology issues but when it's off the board it must be considered.
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2983. leo305
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


it should curve a bit to the north once it reaches that band of shear, and the trough up to the north should also gravitate it northwards, then it should move back to the WNW, and eventually almost due west.. the scary part is what strength will it be when it reaches that band of shear
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
It looks like 92L could become TS Alex according to some of the intensity models I'm looking at.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



EVery model known to man.....


More models there than I have socks & underware combined!
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2980. ackee
92L will be TD#1 by 5am and TS by monday my thinking longer takes to develops windard island more at risk if reach TD by tommrow leeward island or north of carrbbean
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Miami09, mail.
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2978. xcool
TampaSpin guess whats.
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EVery model known to man.....
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2976. xcool
CaneWarning Can't Turn Back tropical haha
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Quoting Drakoen:
92L is quite the monstrosity...


It's a pretty big system also
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2974. aquak9
2967- levi, that really puts it into a frightening perspective...now add another 24 hours of development to THAT
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Quoting Jebekarue:
anyone have a pre Ivan pic to post on here? tia


Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting kuppenskup:


Do you see sheer affecting this down the line at all?
If it moves northward into a band of shear located around 15˚N shear will affect it. For a more in-depth look just check out my blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Wow, I ignore the tropics all day and we get 92L. It's almost 11 PM and its 86 degrees in Tampa. I'm going for a walk while it's "cool" out.
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2969. xcool
big wake- up call. get ready for what's come.& have hurricane plans .
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Quoting StormW:


Yes...I intend on posting a synopsis in the morning.
Great. I'm looking forward to it.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2967. Levi32
I am quite frankly stunned and amazed at what has happened to the ITCZ during the course of a day. What we're seeing on satellite pics right now is really incredible for June.

24 hours ago:



12 hours ago:



Current:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
2966. leo305
Quoting JRRP:
i wonder if the TROF (25n 50w) will affect 92L


that trough will push it to the NW and some models even suggest a turn to the NNE later on..

but ofcourse it will move west back again..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753



Here are the BAM Models.....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/92/L
MARK
7.1N/33.4W
Boy the convection is firing up isnt it.I guess thats what all the white clouds are popping up.
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I think there should be a new record set some time tomorrow.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
2962. Drakoen
92L is quite the monstrosity...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.