Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Quoting Tazmanian:
new poll


when do you think willhave TD 1


A sunday AM


B Sunday PM


C sunday at 10PM


D monday be for noon
Because I know the NHC is conservative, B.
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new poll


when do you think willhave TD 1


A sunday AM


B Sunday PM


C sunday at 10PM


D monday be for noon
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3110. MZV
Gonna leave this to the night owls. Whatever it becomes, I can check it in the morning. (It's definately LARGE right now, if not well formed.)
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3109. Levi32
Nice arcing spiral feeder band to the south of the center.

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3108. Levi32
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Nevermind.
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00z GFS out to 12 hours.

StormVista
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
3105. xcool
TampaSpin lol
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Quoting Relix:
Now models are pointing north. Wooohooo. I am just gonna wait for it to be around 50W =P


Which new models are you refering to, pointing north. Thanks
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NOPE its not a depression yet.....It truly is not without having a tighter Closed Surface Low develop....Maybe by 5am we might have a Depression........MAYBE!


Just my opinion, I thinks its developing faster to the point it will likely be TD 1 tomorrow, possibly TS Alex by late tomorrow. Already has the satellite appearance of Fred in its developmental stages last year, plus the anticyclonce over it and warm SSTs warrants that it could have an easy time developing.
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I have not drunk any alchol all day.....I THINK I NEED A BEER.....with this one for a while.....I THINK YOU ALL should join in and toast in our future first storm of the year......LOL!
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3101. Seastep
Quoting Tazmanian:
am going too have high speed net and i be move in too my new home


Night and day. Enjoy! :)
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3100. Seastep
Have absolutely loved watching this one. Not normal and the progression of organization by all charts, etc. has been great to observe.
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Quoting 7544:
its getting bigger in size peeps hmmm 92l might pass the td 1 status and be introduce to us as ts alex imo


NOPE its not a depression yet.....It truly is not without having a tighter Closed Surface Low develop....Maybe by 5am we might have a Depression........MAYBE!
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0300 UTC - Convection continues to consolidate and intensify. Still looks like a moderate strength tropical storm.

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Quoting MZV:
I guess the NHC will study it overnight since it'd take several more days to reach land, but if it still looks like this at 5AM it'd be hard to see why they don't upgrade to a TD.

Frankly I've seen plenty of sicker-looking named storms, but can understand some conservatism while it's so far away.


I think what happens at the NHC is that when a system is developing, its wind speed hasn't risen up yet, or it doesn't have a closed spin yet despite a good satellite appearance.

But say an organized TC quickly finds itself in a bad shear environment. It goes from organized to disorganizes so fast on satellite (but TC winds don't disapear instantly), so a TC can look ill in its decay phase (look even sicker than 92L) while its still a TC.
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92L still very impressive. In fact, it looks like it is continuing to improve in organization.
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3094. Relix
Now models are pointing north. Wooohooo. I am just gonna wait for it to be around 50W =P
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What a beast of a storm
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
3092. 7544
its getting bigger in size peeps hmmm 92l might pass the td 1 status and be introduce to us as ts alex imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
3091. DDR
Quoting TampaSpin:


The WNW movement should continue......but, a dam high is coming to block it appears and then moves it move on a Due West move.....LOOKS like a Caribbean Storm coming.....GEESH....anything that gets in Caribbean usually gets to another place too......:::::(((((

Hi there
I hope this doesnt affect Trinidad we had some disasterous floods about 2 weeks ago.
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3090. MZV
I guess the NHC will study it overnight since it'd take several more days to reach land, but if it still looks like this at 5AM it'd be hard to see why they don't upgrade to a TD.

Frankly I've seen plenty of sicker-looking named storms, but can understand some conservatism while it's so far away.
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FUTURE ALEX wants birth really fast....damit...that would not be a bad thing......the stronger it gets the more likely it might move more north and become a fish storm.....come on baby grow......the gap is there.
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3087. Levi32
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


And the ITCZ right? They wouldn't classify a system that's still part of the ITCZ, would they?


Tropical cyclones can develop within the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and do all the time. The ITCZ is a limiting factor which we are seeing now with the broadness of the circulation, but that doesn't mean storms can't form while embedded in it. The ITCZ itself wouldn't prevent classification.
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Honestly, I don't think a tight low is that important right now. This thing is being driven by surface convergence and upper level divergence. Winds pushing in over the water need to go somewhere, winds pulling out high up need to come from somewhere. That'll keep the convection intensifying on its own.
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3085. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like an extratropical storm well south of 92L in the southern hemisphere. Both so well defined compared to the other side of the world where the precip is a large smear.

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3084. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Drakoen:
Looks nice.
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3082. Drakoen
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31058
Quoting taco2me61:

I stated that about 8 pages ago and they told me to
sssshhhhhhhhhhhhhh


YA I think you was correct Taco....good call....sorry to repeat what you said.
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3080. Seastep
xcool - post 3048
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am going too have high speed net and i be move in too my new home
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Quoting TampaSpin:
It is not a CLOSED LOW yet....it is still a broad circulation that is for sure getting tighter tho.
Closed but broad:

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Wow. Just wow.
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3076. xcool
Seastep thanks.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
It is not a CLOSED LOW yet....it is still a broad circulation that is for sure getting tighter tho.


More convection the lower the pressure gets, the more convergence and closed low comes soon after, we're seeing step one.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


The WNW movement should continue......but, a dam high is coming to block it appears and then moves it move on a Due West move.....LOOKS like a Caribbean Storm coming.....GEESH....anything that gets in Caribbean usually gets to another place too......:::::(((((

I stated that about 8 pages ago and they told me to
sssshhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


And the ITCZ right? They wouldn't classify a system that's still part of the ITCZ, would they?


It looks like to me it has already seperated from the ITCZ.......i really can't believe what is behind 92L tho....HOLLY CRAP...and MJO IS COMING SOON TOO......Gang i hope your ready for a very bumpy JULY coming.....
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3072. MZV
Nah, not too concerned about the lack of a closed low. I remember Dolly could not close off until well into the Carrib. Main thing is will it continue to flare up convention and rotate.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
It is not a CLOSED LOW yet....it is still a broad circulation that is for sure getting tighter tho.
WINDSAT revealed its closed but it isn't tight, it broad.
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3070. Seastep
3059. xcool

Nice "forest" shot there.
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3069. xcool
like Alex.
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Talk about rapid organization...

0200 UTC Last Night



0200 UTC Latest Satellite Image

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Quoting txsweetpea:
Everyone seems pretty sure this "thing" will develope, I am thankful all of you (or most) are on top of the 2010 hurricane season. Any ideas of where it will end up?


That water vapor image in post 3022 might give some clues. The computer models make it go west and WNW toward the Lesser Antilles, which seems likely. I am thinking 95% chance of TD 1 and 80% TS Alex, don't think at this time Hurricane Alex possible.

Why? Look at that U-shape in the water vapor imagery E of the United States, that's another upper trough about to become cut-off into an upper low to the E of deep-layered ridging. I think such a cut-off upper low would bring psbl Alex toward the N Lesser Antilles while shearing it, and then it will diminish under the shear while crossing the northern Lesser Antilles into the NE Caribbean. While a shallow system, its remnant would then turn westward across the N Caribbean (don't know about regeneration way down the road, too early to talk about that).
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More Waves are coming.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
It is not a CLOSED LOW yet....it is still a broad circulation that is for sure getting tighter tho.
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and the further south it stays the better chance that 92L has to develop further
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Quoting Levi32:
Only thing keeping this from TD status is the broad/elongated surface center. It needs to consolidate and become more defined to be classified.



And the ITCZ right? They wouldn't classify a system that's still part of the ITCZ, would they?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


The WNW movement should continue......but, a dam high is coming to block it appears and then moves it move on a Due West move.....LOOKS like a Caribbean Storm coming.....GEESH....anything that gets in Caribbean usually gets to another place too......:::::(((((
Oh I see.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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