Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I have my reservations with 92L, as is why I am surprised, or amazed as I said earlier. I've done a lot of poking around upper air models and overall dynamics the past two weeks. Not poking around for a storm but, poking around for the conditions to warrant a storm and through 10 days looked rather bleak for the most part. 92L looks like it's coming full gorilla but, in my opinion, as it travels further west, may be short lived as there is an amplifying TUTT coming back down into the Caribbean. Everything I've been looking at has this TUTT lifting out about by next weekend and ever improving conditions thereafter. While 92L is, to me, an amazing sight and I'll be exited to track it's development, I just think it will be short lived is all, just my opinion.


In post 3067, expressed a similar idea, but I think it has a great chance at becoming TS Alex, then it'll get sheared by that new cut-off developing and heading toward E Caribbean. It will probably be shearing out by the time it moves into the Lesser Antilles, and take a track westward into the Caribbean as a remnant tropical wave.
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3161. scott39
This is better than reality T.V
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Quoting stillwaiting:




WRONG!!!!!it should not be affected by sheer thru 48hrs,do your research homey!!!


dont quote the trolls lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Quoting altesticstorm10:
so IKE, stormtop, me, and centex are the only ones who don't think 92L will develop into a cyclone?


IKE hasn't even been on here in hours last I checked...
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
3158. JLPR2
wait a second


that is impressive O_O
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3157. xcool


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why did they call it 92L it like it came out of no where and i dont think any of the mode runs was forcasting it
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
Are you guys out of your minds? 92L will not develop into a tropical depression.

It seems like even the experts on this blog have lost their wits. It's June, for crying out loud. If that alone isn't good enough for you, just remember 92L is at 7N and when it moves north, the shear is going to eat it alive.

92L has a zero percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's simple common sense...commend me when I'm right. Wait until July...




WRONG!!!!!it should not be affected by sheer thru 48hrs,do your research homey!!!
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Looks like its forming a false eye, no way thats the coc lol.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting altesticstorm10:

I sure do have the crow ready...I have a ton of boiled and baked ones with seasoning, ready special for you as well as 95% of the rest of the blog who believes 92L will develop into TD1 and Alex...
We have enough reason to believe that this area will become TD 1, if you disagree your going against many experts on the blog, the NHC, models, etc...
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Satellite loop in post 3127,

Center of circulation becoming better defined last couple of frames.
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Quoting Levi32:
92L has more of a chance to become a tropical cyclone than any other system we have tracked yet this year.
Correct.
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I will be back online for the TWO, very interested on what they have to say..
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
Are you guys out of your minds? 92L will not develop into a tropical depression.

It seems like even the experts on this blog have lost their wits. It's June, for crying out loud. If that alone isn't good enough for you, just remember 92L is at 7N and when it moves north, the shear is going to eat it alive.

92L has a zero percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's simple common sense...commend me when I'm right. Wait until July...


There has been tropical depressions in this area in June before (TD 1 2000). It's obviously against climatology, but wasn't Bertha? And, that became a major hurricane. It looks to be closing in on TD status and, in my opinion, has a 90% chance of development over the next 48 hours. Doesn't matter if it's June or not. All the conditions are there to support development.
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3139.) Well you do have a point with that, lol. But this is in an entirely different ballpark.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
3143. Levi32
92L has more of a chance to become a tropical cyclone than any other system we have tracked yet this year.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


It looks like to me it has already seperated from the ITCZ.......i really can't believe what is behind 92L tho....HOLLY CRAP...and MJO IS COMING SOON TOO......Gang i hope your ready for a very bumpy JULY coming.....



I have my reservations with 92L, as is why I am surprised, or amazed as I said earlier. I've done a lot of poking around upper air models and overall dynamics the past two weeks. Not poking around for a storm but, poking around for the conditions to warrant a storm and through 10 days looked rather bleak for the most part. 92L looks like it's coming full gorilla but, in my opinion, as it travels further west, may be short lived as there is an amplifying TUTT coming back down into the Caribbean. Everything I've been looking at has this TUTT lifting out about by next weekend and ever improving conditions thereafter. While 92L is, to me, an amazing sight and I'll be exited to track it's development, I just think it will be short lived is all, just my opinion.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
well,well,well....I was saying this afternoon that we'd have a 92L within 12 hrs......and i get off work and come home to this?????,lol:).....I also expect our first TC of the year by tomorrow's 11am,but even more probable is a strait to TS status by then!!! imo 92L is going to have some rapid organization and possible rapid intensifacation over the next 12hrs....
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3138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TampaSpin:


WHATEVER........geeesh....here we go....i have not challenged anyone on anything.....WOW


i got no problem with ya bro
just sometimes you forget about all the others that put time in here
and you only try to credit yourself for all the info
and thats not the case its a group effort and your part of that group just like me and everyone else
don't be mad at me tampa i meant no ill intend towards you
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54375
3137. Seastep
3131. altesticstorm10

Got your crow ready? :)
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3136. centex
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Are you guys out of your minds? 92L will not develop into a tropical depression.

It seems like even the experts on this blog have lost their wits. It's June, for crying out loud. If that alone isn't good enough for you, just remember 92L is at 7N and when it moves north, the shear is going to eat it alive.

92L has a zero percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's simple common sense...commend me when I'm right. Wait until July...
Amen
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
Are you guys out of your minds? 92L will not develop into a tropical depression.

It seems like even the experts on this blog have lost their wits. It's June, for crying out loud. If that alone isn't good enough for you, just remember 92L is at 7N and when it moves north, the shear is going to eat it alive.

92L has a zero percent chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's simple common sense...commend me when I'm right. Wait until July...


It wouldn't have been made an invest if there was "zero" chance. Don't downcast
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
3134. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/92/L
MARK
7.4N/33.5W


All of those little areas of convection popping up remind me of Felix
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New surface map is out (00Z)



Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12155
I don't know about this model of "part of the ITCZ vs. not part of the ITCZ." This system I think developed from the strong tropical wave from western Africa that gained much attention recently, but then it fizzled out (followed the wave axis on NHC surface analysis, which shows it along the ITCZ). 92L is at the location of the tropical wave.

Today, 92L (the tropical wave) I think intensified underneath upper difluence of the 200 mb anticyclone. Its surface pressures fell, so that it has a lower pressure than the avg pressure of the ITCZ to its east and west. Now all the storms are collected around 92L and not the ITCZ because max convergence now belongs to the lower pressure of 92L rather than the ITCZ, but 92L is still along the ITCZ, even if it becomes TD 1, still along the ITCZ.
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3130. SaoFeng
Quoting Seastep:
No TD on this one, if designated.

IMO, straight to TS if anything.


It needs to have the winds... I haven't seen any TS winds yet... though I would not be surprised to. Anyone got any wind measurements?
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00z SHIPS takes 92L to category 1 strength at 72 hours. Shear doesn't become a problem for it until 84 hours, when shear increases to 19 knots.

INVEST AL922010 06/13/10 00 UTC
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3128. Levi32
Clearly still elongated. Check out the vort max all the way over at 40W.

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3127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/92/L
MARK
7.4N/33.5W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54375
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did you run those by tampaspin first he seems to know everything while the rest of us well you know


WHATEVER........geeesh....here we go....i have not challenged anyone on anything.....WOW
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3125. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:
Levi do you think it is still embedded within the ITCZ yet ......it appears to me to be already detached from the ITCZ


It's still embedded. That's why the center is broad and elongated towards the west. That is courtesy of the ITCZ screwing up the convergence zones. When 92L starts making its northwest move it will eventually separate from the ITCZ.
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3124. hercj
Quoting TampaSpin:
Levi do you think it is still embedded within the ITCZ yet ......it appears to me to be already detached from the ITCZ

Hey TS great game
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
3123. Seastep
No TD on this one, if designated.

IMO, straight to TS if anything.
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3122. JRRP
mastodon!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Link
see you later......
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Levi do you think it is still embedded within the ITCZ yet ......it appears to me to be already detached from the ITCZ


I agree, it does seem detached.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
3120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
its lifting out of the ITCZ
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54375
Levi do you think it is still embedded within the ITCZ yet ......it appears to me to be already detached from the ITCZ
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3118. 7544
a
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3116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:
Nice arcing spiral feeder band to the south of the center.

did you run those by tampaspin first he seems to know everything while the rest of us well you know
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54375
00z GFS 12 Hours

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3114. xcool
A
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Quoting Tazmanian:
new poll


when do you think willhave TD 1


A sunday AM


B Sunday PM


C sunday at 10PM


D monday be for noon


B Sunday PM
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Quoting Tazmanian:
new poll


when do you think willhave TD 1


A sunday AM


B Sunday PM


C sunday at 10PM


D monday be for noon
Because I know the NHC is conservative, B.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.