Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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3262. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Im just messin around with that post Levi. I think you know im the question man not the forecaster.


:P Had a feeling you weren't serious.
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3261. xcool



TD COME
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3260. Levi32
Interesting how many models actually deepen this in a significant way.

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3259. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


No it's not.
Im just messin around with that post Levi. I think you know im the question man not the forecaster.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
i have a feeling that 92L may be other Andrew in the makeing it all most have the same setup that 90L-Andrew had
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


After 2004 here in Central Fl. I am very concerned! Especially since my lively hood is tourism. We are already going to be struggling enough to get tourist here with a Oil Slick in our backyard. Harry Potter just opened in Orlando..... Maybe Harry potter can pull out some magic for us.
I agree. It's forecasted to be a bad year for us, let's hope those forecasts are wrong.
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LOL

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92L organizing rapidly in my opinion, trucking westward, TD in the morning, TS Alex by tomorrow evening in my opinion if this trend continues.
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
NEW POLL


A - Hurricane Alex

B - Tropical Storm Alex

C - TD 1 only

D - 92L will go poof


I got D


Eh, I'll be bold -- A. But not soon. I see development to TS over two days, then it getting beaten down by shear, then getting its act back together in the northern Caribbean for ultimate strengthening to hurricane strength. But it could fail at any point along that chain.
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
so IKE, stormtop, me, and centex are the only ones who don't think 92L will develop into a cyclone?




IMO at midnight EST 6-13-10 I'd bet its already a TD and a TC seems likely at this point I say 90%chance of a TD in 24hrs and 70% chance of a TS or Hurricane over the next 72hrs,JMO
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm having fun tracking and monitoring this system. But then you think, if this is what you're getting in June, imagine September, that worries me.


After 2004 here in Central Fl. I am very concerned! Especially since my lively hood is tourism. We are already going to be struggling enough to get tourist here with a Oil Slick in our backyard. Harry Potter just opened in Orlando..... Maybe Harry potter can pull out some magic for us.
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Quote from the Godfather 92L sleeps with the fishes.
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Quoting xcool:
Miami NVM lol
Lol.
Quoting JRRP:
Looks like a 60 MPH tropical storm.
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm excited, and concerned, because again, it does not matter if this develops or fizzles. The fact that it's even here, the way it looks now, is a bad sign for what is to come later in the season. To have the tropical Atlantic fostering a disturbance of this quality in June is stunning.


Statements like this from Levi confirm why he gets so much respect. I always pay extra attention when he speaks. Thanks!
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Quoting KarenRei:


So, basically, to sum up: the "good news" scenario is a dissipating storm leaves the shear into the Caribbean cookpot? Am I getting this right?


Well, I know SSTs are at record levels in the Caribbean, but that doesn't matter if there is wind shear (like this week, every tropical wave that entered the Caribbean didn't develop from shear). Don't think the Caribbean is a cookpot until these cut-off TUTTs stop happening in the Caribbean. Another one is about to setup I think.

Later this season, especially begninning in July, the Caribbean could become a real cookpot (lets hope we don't get a similar thing like Dennis & Emily 2005).
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3246. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
E. Its Alex now


No it's not.
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3245. hydrus
Quoting centex:
It's a long shot, just trying to keep this blog in reality. Even if beats the odds will not become more than early eastern TD and not be a long track CV system. So don't get too excited, save your interest for later. Interesting to watch and see what happens but don’t get too excited.
Very impressive for June.jmo
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


That sounds right. Every time I have watched the storms in season it always seems to be sometime after 2-3am (storm time) when they seem to increase convection.

Thanks Keeper
Well 92L has been popping consistent consistent convection through the diurnal minimum, it should really explode later tonight with the diurnal maximum occurring.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I agree with you on this point. However, Everyone is having fun with something to finally watch/ study.


Exactly, I don't care if it strikes land I just want to watch and study tropical formation, and watch history unfold.
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92L is starting out this like Andrew did but i think Andrew had even higher shear then it real came back too life
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3241. xcool
BIG BIG M====
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3240. scott39
Quoting altesticstorm10:
NEW POLL


A - Hurricane Alex

B - Tropical Storm Alex

C - TD 1 only

D - 92L will go poof


I got D
E. Its Alex now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
3239. JRRP
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3238. xcool
Miami NVM lol
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Quoting altesticstorm10:
NEW POLL


A - Hurricane Alex

B - Tropical Storm Alex

C - TD 1 only

D - 92L will go poof


I got D
B. But if it takes a more southerly track towards Trinidad and Tobago I will go with A.
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3236. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey JRRP do you have a link to those particular map and can you also post some more after 72 hours thanks

just change the level
Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

in a normal season dmax occurs
from just after 2 am edt
till about 8 am edt then


That sounds right. Every time I have watched the storms in season it always seems to be sometime after 2-3am (storm time) when they seem to increase convection.

Thanks Keeper
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Quoting xcool:
Miami .BAMM HERE.
Huh?
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i have a feeling a Andrew is in the makeing
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3230. xcool
Miami .BAMM HERE.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I agree with you on this point. However, Everyone is having fun with something to finally watch/ study.
I'm having fun tracking and monitoring this system. But then you think, if this is what you're getting in June, imagine September, that worries me.
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3228. JLPR2
Quoting SouthALWX:

no ... long before then .. probably 4 am roughly


yeah, that sounds about right
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm excited, and concerned, because again, it does not matter if this develops or fizzles. The fact that it's even here, the way it looks now, is a bad sign for what is to come later in the season. To have the tropical Atlantic fostering a disturbance of this quality in June is stunning.


My feelings exactly too. Everyone as always should be prepared, just takes one storm to hit you to make it a bad season (as they always say)!
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It will be exciting to see the first visible satellite image tomorrow morning.
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3225. 7544
this buds for u
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
For those thinking that this might rapidly intensify into Hurricane Alex, I would just wait (not saying that's impossible), apperance of CDO isn't well-banded yet, sometimes these things become TCs, and then appear broader than initially assessed.

Even if it becomes Hurricane Alex, its still going to get sheared later, and probably will diminish toward the Antilles, turn westward as a shallow, dissipating TD/remnant wave as it enters the Caribbean.


I agree with you on this point. However, Everyone is having fun with something to finally watch/ study.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
For those thinking that this might rapidly intensify into Hurricane Alex, I would just wait (not saying that's impossible), apperance of CDO isn't well-banded yet, sometimes these things become TCs, and then appear broader than initially assessed.

Even if it becomes Hurricane Alex, its still going to get sheared later, and probably will diminish toward the Antilles, turn westward as a shallow, dissipating TD/remnant wave as it enters the Caribbean.


So, basically, to sum up: the "good news" scenario is a dissipating storm leaves the shear into the Caribbean cookpot? Am I getting this right?
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Quoting xcool:
I like the official track the best.
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3221. scott39
I tell you one thing, if this was September something and a beast rolled off of africa like 92L, nobody would be questioning developement. Get the fact that its June, out of your head on this one folks. I wont believe that monster will be squashed until i see mother nature do it!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
3220. leo305
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Leo


it occurs right during sunrise, or before it, but it really starts the moment the sun goes down, since dew point's go up as the temperature drops, so it's just a up ride from there.. and then when the sun goes up its a final BIG BOOM because the atmosphere heats up right when there is the most moisture abundant , atleast that's what it looks like to me based on observations.
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hey JRRP do you have a link to those particular map and can you also post some more after 72 hours thanks
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3218. hydrus
......................Plenty of moisture around the system.
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3217. Drakoen
Looks like the OFC track is right down the middle... BAMM models vs. Hurricane models
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Quoting leo305:


Depends on the location of the system, where it is right now, I would say 6-7AM eastern

no ... long before then .. probably 4 am roughly
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Quoting KarenRei:


Last I checked, hurricanes don't carry calendars.



lmao love that comment, you get a plus for that one
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3213. Levi32
Quoting centex:
It's a long shot, just trying to keep this blog in reality. Even if beats the odds will not become more than early eastern TD and not be a long track CV system. So don't get too excited, save your interest for later. Interesting to watch and see what happens but don%u2019t get too excited.


I'm excited, and concerned, because again, it does not matter if this develops or fizzles. The fact that it's even here, the way it looks now, is a bad sign for what is to come later in the season. To have the tropical Atlantic fostering a disturbance of this quality in June is stunning.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thank you.. Do you believe that would be EST?


It'd probably be around 4:30 eastern.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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