Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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3562. xcool
ICANNOT STOP LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3561. Levi32
Convection building back strong in another pulse as soon as the other one starts to go down. This one's a fighter and is not going away overnight like the other disturbances so far this year.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
AussieStorm
HAHA

what do downcasters eat when they are wrong???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3556. xcool
AussieStorm
HAHA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
Quoting altesticstorm10:
It's diurnal max and 92L is already on its last legs. Looks like I need to order a second order of crow for all the hypecasters because I burned some of the ones in the first batch...

Get him outa here, lol, your a classic case of a downcaster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3554. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting altesticstorm10:
It's diurnal max and 92L is already on its last legs. Looks like I need to order a second order of crow for all the hypecasters because I burned some of the ones in the first batch...
no friend its just getting started be afraid be very very afraid
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3553. JLPR2
Quoting altesticstorm10:
It's diurnal max and 92L is already on its last legs. Looks like I need to order a second order of crow for all the hypecasters because I burned some of the ones in the first batch...


nope, its not D-max yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3552. xcool
LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3551. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
422

WHXX04 KWBC 130521

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L



INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 13



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 6.3 31.9 275./ 8.9

6 7.1 33.1 301./15.0

12 8.1 33.8 328./12.4

18 8.2 34.9 276./10.6

24 8.9 36.1 298./14.1

30 9.3 36.6 313./ 6.1

36 10.1 37.2 323./10.3

42 11.0 38.4 305./14.7

48 11.8 39.5 306./13.4

54 12.7 40.5 314./13.2

60 13.2 41.8 289./13.4

66 13.8 43.2 293./15.5

72 14.4 44.8 289./16.1

78 14.9 46.3 289./15.1

84 15.5 47.8 291./16.3

90 16.1 49.0 300./12.5

96 16.1 50.6 268./15.4

102 16.4 52.0 282./13.9

108 16.7 53.1 289./11.4

114 17.4 54.3 298./12.6

120 17.5 55.6 276./12.7

126 17.7 56.8 280./11.5


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting altesticstorm10:
It's diurnal max and 92L is already on its last legs. Looks like I need to order a second order of crow for all the hypecasters because I burned some of the ones in the first batch...


Lol you must be looking at a different satellite than the rest of us are. Convection is building in the bands, classic of tropical depressions (weaker central convection, stronger convection in bands).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3548. xcool



Yellow CAT 1
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
Quoting Levi32:


An upper-level low. You can tell because it is water-vapor imagery, which only shows the wind flow in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere.


Thank ya
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3545. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 GIVETIME .GET READY KABOOM
Yea i know, i think thier being conservative because its June 13th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3544. xcool
scott39 GIVETIME .GET READY KABOOM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3543. xcool
btwntx08 HAHA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3542. scott39
If it were July August or September I think 92L would already be classified as a TD. IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricanes101
You have mail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3539. Levi32
Quoting KittieCane:
Whats spinning in the gulf near Apalachacola
Link


An upper-level low. You can tell because it is water-vapor imagery, which only shows the wind flow in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3538. xcool
92L ON FIRE CALL 911
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
Whats spinning in the gulf near Apalachacola
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3536. scott39
It looks like convection is firing off more towards the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3535. xcool
convection popopop
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3534. xcool
time to look at buoy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3533. JRRP
ok i got it!
see you tomorrow
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6428
3532. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


last image for the night see ya around 8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3531. xcool


COME NOW .SEXY 92l lolol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
Quoting JRRP:
you know what...
i think is losing organization

see you tomorrow


Can't really base that on a couple frames. Plus on the visible it looks impressive.
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Ivest digressing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3528. Levi32
92L is losing the old convective burst that fired several hours ago, but new convection is forming in bands to the south, west, and east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3527. JRRP
you know what...
i think is losing organization

see you tomorrow
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6428
3526. Levi32
00z HWRF is also a bit farther south and west on this run, with weak-moderate intensity, with pretty much an open wave by the end of the run.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
The models didn't really do a good job showing that we would have an organizing low pressure system out there in the first place, so I'm not paying a ton of attention to them. If/when the system develops I will watch them more, with emphasis on the GFDL and HWRF.


They are not designed to be used on systems like 92L... once they become 50 to 60kt tropical storms or greater then we can pay them attention. Right now, best bet is the global favorites and SHIPS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3524. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3523. Levi32
Quoting JRRP:

i think more west


Ya it is a bit more south and west with this run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Hello? Pinhole eye! XD


what,,, pin hole eye, lol
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3521. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bballerf50:


Thank you.

So it seems that CMC has it going through the Box, huh?


It's already in the TampaBayFish Box.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3519. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


Weak TS, northerly track, similar to 18z.

i think more west
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6428
Quoting Levi32:


Weak TS, northerly track, similar to 18z.


Thank you.

So it seems that CMC has it going through the Box, huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3516. xcool
ECMW NEXT HAHA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3515. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The models didn't really do a good job showing that we would have an organizing low pressure system out there in the first place, so I'm not paying a ton of attention to them. If/when the system develops I will watch them more, with emphasis on the GFDL and HWRF.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3513. xcool
HAHA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
3512. Levi32
Quoting bballerf50:
what is the gfdl showing, Levi?


Weak TS, northerly track, similar to 18z.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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