TSR predicts very active hurricane season; Atlantic May MDR SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on June 10, 2010

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The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for an exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued June 4 calls for 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 181% of average. These numbers are much above the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are an increase from their April forecast of 16.3 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The TSR June forecast numbers are the highest they've ever gone for in the eleven years they've been issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. TSR predicts a 85-90% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 85% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 20-34% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.

TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.5 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2009 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 10 - 17% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an exceptionally active season:

1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.6°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. This is the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)

2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 1.2 meters per second (about 2.7 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.


Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and tropicalstormrisk.com (TSR) from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

2010 hurricane season forecasts from CSU and NOAA
NOAA's 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, issued May 27, called for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal (using the mid-point of their range of numbers.) The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) issued on June 2 called for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. So, the consensus forecast from NOAA, CSU, and TSR is 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. The June forecast numbers from all three groups were the highest they've ever gone for in their history of issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts.

May SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest May on record, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were a remarkable 1.51°C above average during May. This is the fourth straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month. The previous record warmest anomaly for the Atlantic MDR was 1.46°C, set last month. Third place goes to June 2005 and March 2010, with a 1.26°C anomaly. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. However, trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near-normal speeds over the past week, since the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened to near-normal pressures. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to increase to above average strength during mid-June, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies have probably peaked for the year, and we can anticipate that the June SST anomaly in the MDR will not be as great as the May anomaly--and may even fall below the June record set in 2005.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for June 10, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Oil spill update
Light southeast or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Pensacola. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 3. The oil spill as imaged on June 9, 2010, by NOAA's Terra satellite. The spill appears highly reflective in the sunglint portion of the image.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have a new post on Friday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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1200. scott39
I dont understand why I still see people buying gas from BP!!
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1199. IKE
Quoting P451:
BP ROV Cams

So that's it I guess. That was their great plan...cut off the riser, put a cap on there, and close the vents.

Well, what happened? Haven't found anything to tell me what went wrong and why.

Why didn't they just crimp the pipe when they had the chance?


I watched Anderson Cooper/AC360 last night and he was interviewing family members of the 11 workers who died.

BP management is pathetic in how they've treated these family members. Almost ignoring them. Where's your compassion?

I'm trying to think of an appropriate word to use to describe BP. Not the honest hard workers, but the big shots that act totally uncaring and have been nothing but liars through all of this. They take us to be fools.

I have little faith in a relief well being finished and working by August. I heard guesstimates a couple of weeks ago of it taking til December...that seems more likely to me.

Ninety-nine percent chance some of this massive oil volcano will be deposited along the northern GOM with a TS or hurricane.

One word I could come up with to describe the big-shots at BP....jerks!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hello

Here in Martinique, I keep an eye on the 8N 51W...
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1197. P451
Not that we didn't already suspect this........


===

Researchers have doubled estimates of how much oil has been spewing from a ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico, reporting Thursday that up to 40,000 barrels (1.7 million gallons) a day may have escaped for weeks.

===


And just like an iceberg 90% of this is under the surface.......but it's not just going to go away or sink to the bottom and decay. This stuff is going to end up everywhere.


I know some of you have given valid replies as to why my two BP early restitution plans cannot work. But I'm still throwing it out there.

)Drop the prices of your oil/gas in the states that have been hit by the disaster. This puts a few bucks back into the pockets of those who are losing their jobs over this.

)Hire those who lost their jobs, and at their known wages, to help clean up.


-----You would have thought by now there would have been some show of good faith here. Instead we get word of some plan to stop the gusher and then we watch it fail and they don't take time to even explain why or tell us what they will do next.

I'm 1500 miles away from this and it's irritating me. Although the way things are going it would appear one day this summer I'll hit the beach here in NJ and find oil sheen that was blown this way off of the Gulf Stream.

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1196. scott39
The upward motion pulse is forecasted going into the last week of june and into July. We will have multiple TCs to track in July!IMO
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1195. P451
BP ROV Cams

So that's it I guess. That was their great plan...cut off the riser, put a cap on there, and close the vents.

Well, what happened? Haven't found anything to tell me what went wrong and why.

Why didn't they just crimp the pipe when they had the chance?
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1194. P451
Quoting StormW:


Great image.

What is going on with India?

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the season's first tropical cyclone could form as early as the middle next week. some of the models are hinting of a strong tropical distubance or even a depression forming near 35W Tthe system will move west through the CATL pass south or over Barbados and then through the central windwards towards the end of next week
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1192. MahFL
So if that girl is towed to shore does the solo attempt become invalid ? or does she get repairs and continue sailing solo ?
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1191. IKE
I see a wave heading toward the islands on the latest CMC and NOGAPS. The CMC is the model that had 91L slamming into SW FL. as a significant tropical system.

The NOGAPS seems to spin everything up lately and it hasn't come to pass.

I don't see much on the ECMWF through June 21st or the GFS through June 26th.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!

Ike, it really makes me mad that our government has been complicit in downsizing the leak rates. I foresee BP using the official government sanctioning of the 5000 per day rate to weasel out of liabilities.


Morning to all, I agree with this. Now if they could only get it stopped so we can get it cleaned up.Running out of time till a cane comes thru the gulf.
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Quoting kingy:


which is seven or eight exxon valdeez disasters so far. And remember today they will release the flow rate data calculated AFTER the riser was cut. Some say there was a significant increase at that point, in contrast to BP's official estimate of a 20% increase after the riser was cut.

Remember that everyone is assuming that BP will get one thing right this year i.e. the relief well. Well lets suppose that doesn't work first time, or it gets delayed by hurricanes. Then we might be facing another few exxon valdeez spills.

Like I keep saying, most people don't know whats gonna hit them when this stuff starts washing up properly. A few tar balls right now will be replaced by tides of oil that will keep coming and will take years to make right, eventually this stuff will get washed all the way into the river mouths and thats when the real chaos starts.



If memory serves the first relief well they drilled for the Ixtoc mess did not get the job done, it took several additional months and a second well to get it done.
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1188. bjdsrq
Quoting hcubed:
Earlier posts mentioned the missing boater. According to CNN, she's alive and well.

"(CNN) -- Australian authorities on Friday made contact with a 16-year-old American girl who triggered a distress signal while attempting to sail solo around the world.

But it could be a day before a French fishing vessel pulls Abby Sunderland and her boat, Wild Eyes, to shore, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said.

"She's in the boat. The boat's seaworthy. It's not taking on water, and she's equipped for the conditions down there, we believe," said Mick Kinley of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.

Sunderland triggered the distress signal Thursday during rough seas.

"She's been dismasted. The rigging's over the side and in the water," Kinley told reporters Friday.

He said Wild Eyes was in the Southern Ocean about 2,000 miles southwest of Perth, Australia, when rescuers contacted her Friday."


Jail the parents.
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Mornin' gang!

Ike, it really makes me mad that our government has been complicit in downsizing the leak rates. I foresee BP using the official government sanctioning of the 5000 per day rate to weasel out of liabilities.

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1186. kingy
Quoting IKE:
Scientists: 40,000 barrels of oil leaking daily from the oil volcano....and that may be an underestimate still.

84,000,000 gallons have gone into the GOM since this started.


which is seven or eight exxon valdeez disasters so far. And remember today they will release the flow rate data calculated AFTER the riser was cut. Some say there was a significant increase at that point, in contrast to BP's official estimate of a 20% increase after the riser was cut.

Remember that everyone is assuming that BP will get one thing right this year i.e. the relief well. Well lets suppose that doesn't work first time, or it gets delayed by hurricanes. Then we might be facing another few exxon valdeez spills.

Like I keep saying, most people don't know whats gonna hit them when this stuff starts washing up properly. A few tar balls right now will be replaced by tides of oil that will keep coming and will take years to make right, eventually this stuff will get washed all the way into the river mouths and thats when the real chaos starts.

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1184. IKE
Scientists: 40,000 barrels of oil leaking daily from the oil volcano....and that may be an underestimate still.

84,000,000 gallons have gone into the GOM since this started.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1183. hcubed
Earlier posts mentioned the missing boater. According to CNN, she's alive and well.

"(CNN) -- Australian authorities on Friday made contact with a 16-year-old American girl who triggered a distress signal while attempting to sail solo around the world.

But it could be a day before a French fishing vessel pulls Abby Sunderland and her boat, Wild Eyes, to shore, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said.

"She's in the boat. The boat's seaworthy. It's not taking on water, and she's equipped for the conditions down there, we believe," said Mick Kinley of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.

Sunderland triggered the distress signal Thursday during rough seas.

"She's been dismasted. The rigging's over the side and in the water," Kinley told reporters Friday.

He said Wild Eyes was in the Southern Ocean about 2,000 miles southwest of Perth, Australia, when rescuers contacted her Friday."
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morning
we will have to watch this EALT troical wave very closely over the next few days.Conditions appear marginally favourable for development as the wave trek westward towards the southern and central windward islands. the situation will have to be be monitured closely
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Good Morning

Tropical Update

Have a good Friday
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1180. calder
on another note Link
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well i g2g now we all hope that alex will be alright and we will probably have another update from sister which is nice of her and hope its good news well good night scott and everybody
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Uhhh, how depressing, geeze, oh well, G'nite, all.
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1177. xcool
btwntx08 yep :)
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Quoting xcool:




it shows 0000%
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Quoting Walshy:


I had a image there but decided to remove it. Then it just went white.


Ah, gotcha. Kind of odd, though? I thought that once an avatar was removed, it was replaced with a different icon? Maybe it's just me.
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Prayers and healing thoughts to Alex, you and your family. So sorry to hear about this.

Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios
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1173. Walshy
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is it supposed to represent something, or was it just for the lulz?


I had a image there but decided to remove it. Then it just went white.
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1172. xcool



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1171. xcool
ok
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Quoting Walshy:



Yes.


Is it supposed to represent something, or was it just for the lulz?
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1169. Walshy
Quoting KoritheMan:
Walshy, is your avatar supposed to be blank? Just curious.



Yes.
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not for long the quietness lol
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Walshy, is your avatar supposed to be blank? Just curious.
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1166. Walshy
Up to 24inches of new snow is possible in Wyoming.



And the tropics remain quiet.

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1165. xcool
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Quoting winter123:
1102 - second guess is it's unnamed since you said "it's impossible". But no one is responding so I'm going to bed. Later JMBlog.


It was already stated to be 2006's Isaac...
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1102 - second guess is it's unnamed since you said "it's impossible". But no one is responding so I'm going to bed. Later JMBlog.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1800
quiet night
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1102-
Quoting MrstormX:
No one will get this, its impossible.


Definitely looks like an Azores low/subtropical transition. My first guess is Vince

.. This is a great idea for downtime btw... Just make sure the storm name is not in the image properties! (This one does not appear to be, but a few others were)

... also @everyone stop feeding the troll(s).
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1800
1160. xcool


big foot come loook out hmmm



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I'm sure that Ms. Barrios will continue to keep us updated on his health. Does anyone have him on FB?
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The mood in here this morning, is very much a somber one, because of Alex's health situation, understandably so, I'd say, :(.
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Ok, I will.
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1156. xcool
:0
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios

everyone here will continue to pray and all we can but i think something good will happen :)
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cynthia here Giving you guys an update well i thought it was a seizure could be something much worse as the doctors told us that he is not responsive and they are scared. we are terrified but he is a trooper and i bilieve whatever is ailing him will go away and he will be back here but right now he will need your prayers more than ever he tells me every day that you guys are his extended family thank you for your support and hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.

Cynthia Barrios


Alex will make it, I know he can. Thoughts and prayers are with him, you and the family.
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Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Korith, plz do not add further fuel into the fire, if you will.


The only fire here is the fire that is allowed. He might well be a troll, but you need to give him the benefit of the doubt first. He might truly believe he sees something we don't. Give him a little bit before you derogatorily label him a troll.
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prayers said for your son and family cynthia and I will continue to pray for your will family...
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Korith, plz do not add further fuel into the fire, if you will.
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.....wave coming off africa looking good!!!!,maybe our next invest if it can survivr the next 24hrs IMO.....
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.