La Niña by July?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2010

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El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.


Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.


Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sarahjola:
i think the nhc will be eating crow on that prediction. i said it last night that we would be watching something this weekend. forget model predictions- just use your intuition for this question- do you think this wave has a chance for development. the water are boiling out there. people on this blog have been saying for days now that the conditions are ripe for development in the Caribbean. so any predictions on if and when this wave will take shape and possibly be named?


It aint happening. Shear over the eastern Caribbean is over 40 knots. Just some gusty showers for the Winward islands.
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herci... There is a fella, Jerry Wilkinson, retired, in his 80's, that is a historical authority on the Florida Keys.. especially the upper keys. He has put together a web page about the '35 'cane in honor/memorium of the 75th anniversary.

The Homepage for the 75th Anniversary of the 1935 Hurricane -


He has multiple links, two videos and much information. I have corresponded with him a number of times and he is generous with his knowledge and sources. If you were to pose your questions to him he might be a valuable source if he knows the answer.. and a bulldog for learning more if he doesn't. "I" would be interested in reading anything you might discover too. Good luck!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2521
1639. hydrus
Quoting helove2trac:
where is dr steve lyons?
Texas.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20514
Disturbance forms at 48 hours:


More impressive at 120 hours:
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1637. hercj
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
hercj



This is a poor photo of the Ivan Olsen boat in which a number of people from the Craig area just below the ferry landing rode out the hurricane. More important, it was Olsen's barometer that establish the still record low barometric pressure of 26.35 inches ever recorded over land in North America. The indicator was off the scale and Captain Olsen scratched marks along the brass rim which were later calibrated.


THE NATURAL HISTORY ROOM
The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane
Page 10

http://www.keyshistory.org/shelf1935hurrpage10.html

Thanks, I'm moving in the right direction now.
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
i think the nhc will be eating crow on that prediction. i said it last night that we would be watching something this weekend. forget model predictions- just use your intuition for this question- do you think this wave has a chance for development. the water are boiling out there. people on this blog have been saying for days now that the conditions are ripe for development in the Caribbean. so any predictions on if and when this wave will take shape and possibly be named?
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
1635. hydrus
Quoting hercj:

ok you got the information i'm looking for. I knew someone on this blog would. Where was that barometer located at?
You wiil have to give me some time. I have to go out to the barn (storage shed) to get my OLD books. I can get you all you need to know on the Labor Day storm.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20514
06Z GFS continues to suggest development in the Western Caribbean in the 48-120 hour period.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
hercj



This is a poor photo of the Ivan Olsen boat in which a number of people from the Craig area just below the ferry landing rode out the hurricane. More important, it was Olsen's barometer that establish the still record low barometric pressure of 26.35 inches ever recorded over land in North America. The indicator was off the scale and Captain Olsen scratched marks along the brass rim which were later calibrated.


THE NATURAL HISTORY ROOM
The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane
Page 10

http://www.keyshistory.org/shelf1935hurrpage10.html
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
1631. hercj
Quoting hydrus:

There were other barometers that survived the storm other than Hemingway,s. All wind measuring instruments were destroyed. The barometer that measured the 26.35 reading was tested and accurate.

ok you got the information i'm looking for. I knew someone on this blog would. Where was that barometer located at?
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
where is dr steve lyons?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Earliest and farthest east Tropical Cyclone in June


Tropical Storm Ana
Tropical storm (SSHS)

Duration June 19 %u2013 June 24
Intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min), 1005 mbar (hPa)

Ana formed as the third tropical depression east of the Lesser Antilles on June 19. She was one of the first tropical storms to develop that far east during the month of June since the 1933 Atlantic hurricane season.[6] The depression curved gently northwest and strengthened into Tropical Storm Ana while 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Barbados on June 22. Ana crossed the Leeward Islands and weakened into a tropical depression. The storm degenerated the next morning in the central Caribbean Sea.
Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
1628. Grothar
Quoting champagnedrmz:
Doesn't that just mean 0% chance over the next 48hours? Not 0% chance it will develop at all? That is how I understand it. Please correct me if I am wrong.


I am sure by tomorrow they will have to bring it up to a least a 1%, I agree with all of you. By the time this is all over they may find it was actually a 2% and really be embarrassed.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25373
1627. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


Good question! That would be something I would have to check on...it would help to see how the isobar spacing was for one thing.
There were barometers that survived the storm other than Hemingway,s. All wind measuring instruments were destroyed. The barometer that measured the 26.35 reading was tested and accurate.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20514
1625. SLU


BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

Looks like Tropical development!!!
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Good morning folks!!
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1622. hercj
Quoting Hurricanejer95:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA


I find it very interesting that Lexion and Chris wrote this.
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
More storms for Southeast Texas today...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3:00PM CDT

845 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2010
The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A
Tornado Watch For Portions Of Southern And Eastern Texas

The Tornado Watch Area Is Approximately Along And 55 Statute Miles Either Side Of A Line From 30 Miles South Of New Braunfels Texas To 60 Miles East Northeast Of Lufkin Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1620. MrsOsa
Quoting gator23:


Katrina would not have been as bad if it hit anywhere else. The storm surge it brought broke the levees which is why it was so devastating. A better analogy is HUGO and ANDREW. Andrew was a cat 5 monster that devasted south Miami and it formed very late in a very SLOW season.


See and this is the memory of Katrina that angers the people of MS. Because of the levees and NO flooding everyone forgets that MS was DEVESTATED by Katrina's storm surge and we didn't have levees that broke that shouldn't. It was alllll storm. My house was one of many.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Doesn't that just mean 0% chance over the next 48hours? Not 0% chance it will develop at all? That is how I understand it. Please correct me if I am wrong.
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1617. cg2916
Just looked at the CIMSS shear and shear tendency maps (too lazy to post them), and it looks like the TUTT has about 30 kts of shear over the Caribbean, and it's on the rise.
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1616. cg2916
Quoting StormW:


About 96-102 hours from 06Z.


About how long before this thing reaches the TUTT?
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1614. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Good question! That would be something I would have to check on...it would help to see how the isobar spacing was for one thing.

My position after finding all this out is that this was a great big guess and still is. There were a bunch of WWI vets down there working on the roadbed for FDR and the political storm erupted for quite awhile. So bottom line. I dont think they know how bad this was but with todays technology they could find out.
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
1613. cg2916
Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't understand their thanking giving it a ZERO chance and still putting it up, other than to relieve those that think something is about to happen....guess NHC could be suggesting something down the road also......I DON'T KNOW?





The TWO said it had a near 0% chance over the next 48 hours. This means that it has a 1-4% chance (since they round to the nearest 10%) during the next 48 hours, but could be a problem down the road.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Great shower curtain. Where can I buy one like it?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1610. SLU


The "Windward Islands" wave appears to be getting a little better organised this morning with a vorticity maximum developing near 12n 58w right where the deepest convection is. However, air pressures are still very high (1015mb) over these islands.
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1609. Makoto1
I think they may have operationally done this 0% thing before but they just started to actually publicly release the percentages this year. They have mentioned percentages on a few tropical cyclone reports in the past, after all.

Also it's raining like crazy here, we could get a couple inches easily out of this.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Yes, and tracking from Africa to the US. Around 6/20 the GFS shows a few waves crossing Florida from 6/20 thru 6/25.



Wave, when's the last time we had a true tropical wave through Florida, lol. It seems like forever, I don't think we had but one or two last year.
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1606. cg2916
About how long before the TUTT in the Caribbean lifts, or do we know?
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I don't understand their thanking giving it a ZERO chance and still putting it up, other than to relieve those that think something is about to happen....guess NHC could be suggesting something down the road also......I DON'T KNOW?



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1604. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Always!

Ok here goes, doing research over the last few days and came on this. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that devastated Islamaroda in the keys is SUSPECTED of being one of the top three strongest storms to strike CONUS. It appears that it is suspected due to all measuring devices were destroyed and the principle piece of evidence to this was the barometer on Ernest Hemmingway's boat The Pillar which lay at anchor in Key West some 75 Miles away from the landfall. My question is how would one go about extrapallating that data to match. His Barometer bottomed out and stayed there for 2.5 hours.
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Quoting gator23:


Katrina would not have been as bad if it hit anywhere else. The storm surge it brought broke the levees which is why it was so devastating. A better analogy is HUGO and ANDREW. Andrew was a cat 5 monster that devasted south Miami and it formed very late in a very SLOW season.


Dude, the Mississippi Gulf Coast was devastated by a 29 foot storm surge.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
We may get to see the scenario of 3 or 4 concurrent systems this season, which isn't insanely uncommon but nonetheless interesting.


Dang Jeff, this blog could not take that...LOL.....But, you are correct tho.
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Nice consolidation on that wave seems that its about to hit 40knts of shear though. Not that it matters for the Antilles anyway squally weather would be expected to those in the way.
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Does that look like an L off the coast of africa
Member Since: April 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347
1596. hercj
Hey Senior Chief, you up for a question?
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I think one thing can be guaranteed, and that is, unlike last year, we will get our first named storm before August 15th. There's no way a wave won't take advantage of these well above average favorable conditions well before that date..


Been saying this for 2 weeks now.....JULY will come in with a bibbadi....Boom......as MJO returns into the Atlantic Basin about the 1st or 2nd week in JULY. GET READY for the quick ride!
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1593. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


XX/XX/XL
RE-MARK
12.3N/55.2W
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Katrina did hit somewhere else and not New Orleans. You might want to check out pictures of our Mississippi Gulf Coast before and after Katrina. You will see devastation. Our coastline was like an Etch-A-Sketch after shaking it: We were nearly completely wiped out to a blank slate!

Quoting gator23:


Katrina would not have been as bad if it hit anywhere else. The storm surge it brought broke the levees which is why it was so devastating. A better analogy is HUGO and ANDREW. Andrew was a cat 5 monster that devasted south Miami and it formed very late in a very SLOW season.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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