La Niña by July?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2010

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El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.


Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.


Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NEwxguy:
Ok,haven't been here alot lately,but looking at all the trolls here,we can officially declare it hurricane season.June 9th!!!


LMAO, that was good! I hope you don't consider me a troll, I tend to get lost on other blogs when it's not hurricane season and come back when the weather has a severe outbreak or when the hurricane season starts! I stopped over today after I saw the NHC had an area of interest highlighted! Going to be an interesting year with all that oil in the Gulf, kind of scared of where a hurricane could deposit all that oil!
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Quoting StormW:


Could see some development in the mid levels...mid level shear is next to nothing.



Afternoon StormW!
So what would this all mean if conditions are favorable for mid-level development, or do you mean down the road?
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Quoting Caribbeanislands101:

thanks


It's really a great read... Drs. Gray and Klotzbach are very thorough... Dr. Klotzbach is working on a large project about landfall probabilities...
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2039. NRAamy
"loopy"....I so totally get that....

;)
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Quoting NRAamy:
TT...is the pissed off monkey a he or a she?


His name is Iggy... he's just loopy...
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Quoting winter123:
Top 5 sayings this season:

1) Season is a bust, NEXT!
2) Are you JFV? Hi JFV
3) Shear is WAY below average
4) This will definitely hit Florida
5) 10% chance ARE YOU KIDDING ME???


you forgot where will the hurricane (last doesn't exist yet) strike?
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2035. NRAamy
TT...is the pissed off monkey a he or a she?
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Quoting ElConando:


It will be interesting to see if I AOI can pass through the unfavorable conditions in tact and have a shot of developing down the road.

I will say the 14-23 storm prediction was quite a good idea.


Brings back the memories of last years Invest 97L in the Caribbean. It finally died when it hit PR and wind shear.. So it's possible.
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Quoting TampaTom:


http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf

thanks
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hugo

Jeff Masters almost died in this storm!
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Quoting Caribbeanislands101:
What are the chances of Puerto Rico and USVL getting hit by a hurricane Hugo type storm this season ?

Hugo hit Puerto Rico with 125 mph winds and St.Croix with winds of 140 mph


http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/june2010/jun2010.pdf
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What are the chances of Puerto Rico and USVL getting hit by a hurricane Hugo type storm this season ?

Hugo hit Puerto Rico with 125 mph winds and St.Croix with winds of 140 mph
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Quoting Levi32:
A very weak surface vortex is racing out westward of the convection northwest of Greneda, and will dissipate within the strong trade wind flow.

Back later.



It will be interesting to see if I AOI can pass through the unfavorable conditions in tact and have a shot of developing down the road.

I will say the 14-23 storm prediction was quite a good idea.
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Quoting NRAamy:
2009. sleetman1 10:54 AM PDT on June 09, 2010
let me get something straight here men..


and chicks....get that straight...


And, purple dancing hippos... let's not forget those...
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Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
TXC339-091815-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0013.100609T1746Z-100609T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1246 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOBBIN... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DACUS...MONTGOMERY AND MAGNOLIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FOR THE WARNED AREA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3015 9575 3019 9581 3024 9581 3026 9580
3037 9580 3038 9581 3044 9581 3047 9581
3058 9574 3047 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 230DEG 22KT 3029 9577

$$







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TWC is showing a special on Andrew. Even though I was young, I can remember it oh so well.
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2023. NRAamy
2009. sleetman1 10:54 AM PDT on June 09, 2010
let me get something straight here men..


and chicks....get that straight...
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Quoting Levi32:
A very weak surface vortex is racing out westward of the convection northwest of Greneda, and will dissipate within the strong trade wind flow.

Back later.



Thanks for pointing at what I saw.. I think the NHC is watching this mainly because it's headed towards favorable conditions in a few days.
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Quoting sleetman1:
let me get something straight here men..this si the first time i have graced your blog and im not making a forecast im just stating what i think may happen..i dont have to refresh your minds what happpened to dr grays forecast last year...im not saying the season is a bust hell 1 storm could wreck someones vacation..just saying i dont think there is any chance of what noaa is forecasting thats a joke and i agree with hurricanelover on that..no reason to call me a fool because i dont agree with some of you..


but you have to take into consideration that they have never to my knowledge put a forecast out like this one. and it is kinda a joke, such a wide range. noaa is covering their backside. too many people are seeing lots of signs for a very active season. all i can say is that i live in northern california and the weather is wacko, it rained last night. which i was told is caused by la nina conditions which leads to active hurricane season.
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2020. NEwxguy
Ok,haven't been here alot lately,but looking at all the trolls here,we can officially declare it hurricane season.June 9th!!!
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2019. gator23
Quoting cyclonekid:
My goodness. It seems like you and sleetman are the only two that are thinking that this will be an unactive season. Where are your facts? Shear is WAY below average for this time of the year. What convinces you that we will not have an above normal season?

they are the same guy, especially since one of them jsut said the other had a "good sense of humor" when the joke wasnt funny
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Alright heading out see you later
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
2016. IKE
REUTERS - Here are developments in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the largest in U.S. history:

World

SPILL CONTAINMENT EFFORTS

* BP said on Wednesday it had collected a little more than 15,000 barrels of oil with its containment cap system on Tuesday at the 7-week-old leak in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said at a press briefing in Washington on Wednesday.

That brings the cumulative total for five days to more than 57,000 barrels.

OIL SLICK THREAT

* U.S. experts investigating reports of undersea oil plumes emanating from BP's stricken well have confirmed the presence of low levels of oil below the surface, Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said on Tuesday.

* BP continues to play down reports of an undersea oil plume. "We have not found any significant concentration of oil below the surface," BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles told ABC's "Good Morning America" on Wednesday.

* Northwest Florida officials are warning the public not to swim on six miles (10 km) of oil-hit beach on Perdido Key from the Alabama-Florida boundary to the Gulf Islands Seashore national park.

The Gulf oil spill could put nearly 195,000 Floridians out of work and cost the state $10.9 billion, according to a study by University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith.
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Top 5 sayings this season:

1) Season is a bust, NEXT!
2) Are you JFV? Hi JFV
3) Shear is WAY below average
4) This will definitely hit Florida
5) 10% chance ARE YOU KIDDING ME???
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2014. Levi32
A very weak surface vortex is racing out westward of the convection northwest of Grenada, and will dissipate within the strong trade wind flow.

Back later.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2013. IKE
Quoting sleetman1:
let me get something straight here men..this si the first time i have graced your blog and im not making a forecast im just stating what i think may happen..i dont have to refresh your minds what happpened to dr grays forecast last year...im not saying the season is a bust hell 1 storm could wreck someones vacation..just saying i dont think there is any chance of what noaa is forecasting thats a joke and i agree with hurricanelover on that..no reason to call me a fool because i dont agree with some of you..


You type just like the original stormtop.

I need a scorecard to keep up with the posters and their SN's on here.
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2012. gator23
>
Quoting hurricanelover236:
amen to that sleetman. yeah maybe i am taking it over the top by saying it will be a bust. But nothing above average and certainly nothing devastating.


Quoting sleetman1:
you are so right hurricane lover amen to that...


ya you guys are 2 different people my bad how could I have been so wrong...
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Quoting reedzone:


There is a reason for everything in life. This little cridder is CURRENTLY under 15-20 knots of shear, also according to your image, there is a naked swirl west of the convection.. So I can see why this has some attention, especially when it's heading to a much more favorable area in a few days. Notice in their discussion, the word CURRENTLY is noted.


A lot of times they use "currently" and it doesn't necessarily mean anything.
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I want to personally apologize to BenBlogger, I bashed him for saying 2009 would be an unactive season, I am going to take him off my ignore list and think before I call him a troll, he was right all along.
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Quoting NRAamy:
where's STORMTOP?


in my pa-,erm I mean in his basement weather office waiting for the right time to strike.
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FYI - Early Season activity - dates of first named storm and total number of named cyclones:

2009 - Aug 11 - 9 storms
2008 - May 30 - 16 storms
2007 - May 9 - 15 Storms
2006 - June 10 - 10 Storms
2005 - June 8 - 28 storms
2004 - July 31 - 15 storms
2003 - April 20 - 16 storms
2002 - July 14 - 12 storms
2001 - June 4 - 15 storms
2000 - June 7 - 15 storms
1999 - June 11 - 12 storms
1998 - July 27 - 14 storms
1997 - May 31 - 8 storms
1996 - June 17 - 14 storms
1995 - June 2 - 19 storms
1994 - June 30 - 7 storms
1993 - May 31 - 8 storms
1992 - August 17 - 7 storms
1991 - June 29 - 8 storms
1990 - July 22 - 14 storms
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Wow my first ignore ever with many more to come i feel great!
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There is a reason for everything in life. This little cridder is CURRENTLY under 15-20 knots of shear, also according to your image, there is a naked swirl west of the convection.. So I can see why this has some attention, especially when it's heading to a much more favorable area in a few days. Notice in their discussion, the word CURRENTLY is noted.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Ignore and move on Matt.
Sorry. You know how I am.
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Quoting NRAamy:
FYI

baking soda paste makes bee stings go away instantly.


so does Jim Beam....

^_^d
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hello Tampa Tom
hoping you are well today
tropics not yet ripe
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been a long while since I've used the ignore button....
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Quoting NRAamy:
FYI

baking soda paste makes bee stings go away instantly.


so does Jim Beam....
Thanks Amy!
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting cyclonekid:
My goodness. It seems like you and sleetman are the only two that are thinking that this will be an unactive season. Where are your facts? Shear is WAY below average for this time of the year. What convinces you that we will not have an above normal season?


Can you please stop quoting them? They're just trolls. They dont have any reason behind their "forecasts"
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1995. NRAamy
FYI

baking soda paste makes bee stings go away instantly.


so does Jim Beam....
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1994. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 59W S OF
15N IS MOVING W-NW ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS
ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...BUILDING SEAS AND SQUALLY
WEATHER. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AND MOVE ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
18N80W TO 11N81W WILL DRIFT W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE SE TO S FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU BEFORE HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE ATLC BUILDS W INTO THE NE GULF THU AND FRI. THIS
WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER W INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND TO PRODUCE ELY FLOW ACROSS THE S GULF AND INCREASING
RETURN FLOW OVER W PORTIONS.
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news station can not even spell levee right

SAN ANTONIO -- One person was killed in flooding Wednesday in Gruene, Comal County Judge Danny Scheel told KSAT 12 News.
Some of the heaviest rain, which fell overnight Tuesday, was reported in the New Braunfels area, where up to 10 inches of rain fell, said KSAT 12 meteorologist Mike Osterhage.
"Guadalupe River flooding at my home in New Braunfels and I'm not there!," said Brenda L. Mulliner on KSAT 12's Facebook Fan page. Mulliner said that her husband, who was home at the time, saw numerous boats, RVs, jet skis, Dumpsters, and debris floating down the Comal River.
KSAT 12 video showed a bus that transports tubers slammed against a utility pole.
Bonnie Wakefield, who lives on Lake Dunlap, reported on KSAT 12'S Facebook Fan Page that several trees were blocking streets that prevented nearby residents from leaving the area.
"They have no power, so we're communicating via cell phone," she said.
The American Red Cross of Comal County opened a shelter at New Braunfels Middle School for those being evacuated near Dry Comal Creek. The shelter will be taking west side residents flooded out of their homes by rising water at the Dry Comal Creek, said Sharon McAllister, Red Cross branch manager.
The northbound lanes of Interstate 35 was closed at Engel Road, where water was reported to be over the highway.
Heavy rain also fell in Elmendorf and western Wilson County, where up to 10 inches of rain fell in six to eight hours.
Two people were rescued from homes off FM 1303 in Wilson County. Evacuations were ordered in homes off county roads 126 and 164, law enforcement officials said.
One person was rescued from a van in high water off FM 2579. No injuries were reported.
Multiple road closures were also reported, including Highway 97 west at the Wilson/Atascosa County line and FM 2504 at the Wilson/Bexar County line.
About two dozen homes were evacuated in the Sandy Oaks Community in southeast Bexar County.
Around 1 a.m. residents heard dogs barking, and when they looked out their windows, they saw water surrounding their homes. The flooding was blamed on a nearby retention pond used to water livestock.
The heavy rains caused a dirt levy around the pond to give out, sending water onto lower-lying properties.
Despite some homes having as much as 3 feet of water inside, some people refused to leave, Sandy Oak volunteer firefighters said. Those who did evacuate were put up in nearby hotels. No injuries were reported.
Firefighters were concerned about more rain falling, which could cause a levy to collapse that could trigger more flooding.
In an effort to divert the water off properties, Bexar County Public Works dredged along a drainage ditch on Hardy Road.
Thunderstorms were blamed for flipping an RV onto a car at a mobile home park and causing other residential damage in the southeast Texas town of Nome.
Jefferson County sheriff's Deputy Brent Weaver said no injuries were reported in the strong winds around dawn Wednesday. The department received reports of a possible tornado.
Weaver said volunteer firefighters joined deputies going door to door in Nome, a town of about 500 located 60 miles northeast of Houston, to assess damage.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.