La Niña by July?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2010

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El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.


Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.


Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

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3242. ryang
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3241. eye
It is a slow start for a suposedly hyperactive season.....since everyone was loving comparing this season to 2005, we are already behind.....
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3240. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MahFL:
Why was cycloneoz banned ?
he went to far in a confrontation with a troll and challenge admin i guess he lost
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3239. Patrap
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like we're in countdown mode.
Thanks for the good advice Kman.
Doesn't hurt to check on elderly neighbors at this time to find out their plans, either.
Patrap, that article is astonishing. Thanks for posting it.
Having a new air conditioner installed this weekend. Hope to have power to run it this summer!


Here in Se. Louisiana we cherish our Air Conditioners as much as our Boats..

Well.,,,almost
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3238. scott39
Quoting scott39:
At about 63W and 12n there looks like some storms firing off. Also in my humble opinion it looks like the shear isnt as stong today as yesterday.It doesnt look like it would blow the tops off the convection if it were as stong as yesterday.
Can anyone else see this on the current Sattelite, or am i just way off?
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Looks like we're in countdown mode.
Thanks for the good advice Kman.
Doesn't hurt to check on elderly neighbors at this time to find out their plans, either.
Patrap, that article is astonishing. Thanks for posting it.
Having a new air conditioner installed this weekend. Hope to have power to run it this summer!
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3236. Patrap
U 2 Kman...and lite the pit tonight too.
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Quoting Patrap:
Someone is in 'Counsler" mode..


Could you pass my soap box please !

Have a great day Pat.
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Well, I am off for now. We do need the rain here though. In the 90's every day and heat indices around 110F.

Catch you later
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3233. MahFL
Why was cycloneoz banned ?
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3232. Patrap
Someone is in 'Counsler" mode..
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Quoting DestinJeff:


all wonderful advise ... and without paying a retainer!


Did someone say "retainer " ??
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3229. scott39
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


on the west side of what? firing of convection where?
At about 63W and 12n there looks like some storms firing off. Also in my humble opinion it looks like the shear isnt as stong today as yesterday.It doesnt look like it would blow the tops off the convection if it were as stong as yesterday.
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3228. SpFox
That huge tropical wave over Africa produced a massive dust storm yesterday.



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Quoting DestinJeff:


Good morning, Voice-of-Reason ...



Good day to you. The interesting thing about checking supplies is that you tend to find that you no longer have many of the long lasting items you thought you had. For instance, every season I would buy about 5 flashlights and a huge bag of batteries.

When I went looking for any of that stuff the following year it was nowhere to be found. Why ?. The children would use them up doing one thing or another !.

Updating your action plan is very important as items may need to be added to it or removed from it as the case may be. For example, a family member may be on prescribed medication this year but last year no one in the family was. Make sure your list includes packing away medication for an evac if necessary and fill a new prescription a day or so before a landfalling threat. Pharmacies may be closed for days when you need to get into one.

Think ahead.
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Nothing eminent across the tropical atl as most of the caribbean is hostile this morning. Took a pan at the new ECMWF which still carries a wave into the eastern caribbean but has a (tutt) entrenched in the vicinity producing strong westerlies. Think it will be another 3-4 weeks before we can begin to look out across the eastern tropical atl.

adrian
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3225. Patrap


As BP promised, the walruses are fine:

Stephanie Grace



Published: Thursday, June 10, 2010, 7:30 AM

When BPGlobalPR, a popular parody of BP's official Twitter feed, asked readers last week to "cut us some slack" because "we've kinda just been winging this whole 'deepwater drilling' thing," it was, quite obviously, a joke.


Yet a new analysis of BP's emergency plans, rubberstamped by the equally asleep-at-the-wheel federal Minerals Management Service, suggests the fake company line is actually a pretty accurate summation of the real company's response to the oil well that's still gushing a mile under the Gulf of Mexico.
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The Associated Press took a good close look at two disaster response plans that cover the Deepwater Horizon site, a 582-page regional spill plan and a shorter document addressing the individual site, and concluded that they were riddled with mistakes and erroneous assumptions.

Among the individual errors: Marine life specialists' phone numbers are wrong. An Internet link to a cleanup equipment supplier is broken. One national wildlife expert listed as a possible source of information actually died in 2005, four years before the document was filed.

And "sensitive biological resources" listed as in a potential spill's path include cold-climate marine mammals like walruses, sea otters, sea lions and seals, none of which inhabit the warm-water Gulf of Mexico. Kind of makes you wonder whether that passage was lifted from a document covering some place like Alaska, where all those animals actually do live.

In a broader sense, the assessments paint a rosy picture of the likely outcome of what the company describes as an unlikely spill.

BP said there would be just a 21 percent chance that oil would reach Louisiana's coast within a month; in fact the first sheen hit the state in nine days after the rig exploded. The company also said it had more than enough equipment in place to capture any oil before it would hit shore.

If the documents downplay risk to the Gulf coast, they completely ignore the threat beyond. There's no mention of the much-discussed loop current, for example, which could send oil around the Florida peninsula and up the Atlantic Coast.

The 52-page plan BP submitted early last year covering Mississippi Canyon Block 252, the location of the busted well, is particularly disheartening to read in hindsight, after seeing all those pictures of oiled birds and turtles and gunky wetlands and beaches.

Out in the Gulf, a spill might cause "some detrimental effects" on fish habitats, the report concedes, but it would likely be "sub-lethal." Both finfish and shellfish, the company pointed out, can swim away.

Potential onshore damage is described just as dismissively.

"An accidental oil spill from the proposed activities could cause impacts to beaches. However, due to the distance to shore (48 miles) and the response capabilities that would be implemented, no significant adverse impacts are expected," the report says.

"Both the historical spill data and the combined trajectory/risk calculations ... indicated there is little risk of contact or impact to the coastline and associated environmental resources."

The document goes on to use the same wording to describe potential risk to wetlands, to shore birds and coastal nesting birds, to coastal wildlife refuges, and to coastal wilderness areas.

As with the misplaced sea mammals, you've got to wonder whether the author either used boilerplate language, or just blocked and copied. It's as if the goal was just to fill in all the lines and check off all the boxes, not to position the company to deal with an actual, rather than theoretical, crisis.

After hearing about the analysis, Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat, unintentionally parroted the Twitter satirists' comic assessment.

"The AP report paints a picture of a company that was making it up as it went along, while telling regulators it had the full capability to deal with a major spill," Nelson wrote in an e-mail. "We know that wasn't true."

Yes, we do know that, now. What we don't know is whether to laugh about it, or to cry.

Stephanie Grace is a staff columnist. She can be reached at sgrace@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3383.
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3224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting aquak9:
When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?

yes.

Zombie-B-Gone!! well for now...it always comes back...
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3222. IKE
Kman...I'd say you are correct....like watching paint dry....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting scott39:
It looks like theres some firing of convection on the west side of it.


on the west side of what? firing of convection where?
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Good morning

The action so far this season can be summed up in two words : " Climatology Rules "

No matter how hot the water and how strong the early Twaves are June is traditionally a quiet month. Use the month wisely to dust off your hurricane plan, check to see what supplies need replenishing,and get prepared.

This is not a "slow start ". It is what you would expect to see.
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3217. scott39
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morining guys well I found out that the low level steering is starting to point to a wnw to nw in the west Caribbean

0300Z



0600Z



0900Z

It looks like theres some firing of convection on the west side of it.
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Good morining guys well I found out that the low level steering is starting to point to a wnw to nw in the west Caribbean

0300Z



0600Z



0900Z

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3215. scott39
Dont be fooled by the calm before the storms! If anybody has chronic medical problem that requires power, have a plan now.
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i see JFV is not geting it yet i dony think he nos what the word banned means


if i was the Admin i would have blck him by now too where he dos not make any more names
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I wonder if they will consider that a "legitimate" claim for damages?


They say they haven't denied a claim yet!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
excue my fast typing i make a lot of mistakes. I meant we are off to a slow start and will conclude with a slow finish lol. Enough said
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3211. aquak9
When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?

yes.

Zombie-B-Gone!! well for now...it always comes back...
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Quoting CaneWarning:


BP can't afford to hire workers, they are too busy paying for full page ads and minute long tv commercials. I swear if I see one more of their commercials I'm going to throw something at my TV.

No dont do that then you will have to buy a new tv at the cost of bp.
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We are off to a low star and will conclude with a slow finish lol. Enough said.
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3208. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Good morning, WU. Not a lot changed since yesterday...

- "Rather impressive for June" wave still in Africa

- Models still "hinting at some development" of "rather impressive for June" wave

- Climatology still does not support such development of the "rather impressive for June" wave

- Gulf of Mexico still having an "oilgasm".

That about cover everything?


You left out....

(1)It's suppose to be slow...it's June.

(2)Just wait til.....

(3)I can't believe he's already saying season is a bust!

(4)When we get to...."....", we'll have multiple systems.

(5)When will the shear let up?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


And that looks to continue for awhile. I'd say at least 10-14 days. Maybe the last 10 days of June? Maybe?

0-0-0.


20th at the earliest IMO. Unless something develops in one of the low pockets of shear in the SW Carib or East Coast. Shear is remarkably low across the Eastern Seaboard for a situational type development, typical of June.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting hcubed:
CapeVerdeCanes=empty space - again.

Quick question about a ban. When someone is banned, I can see that all their old posts disappear also.

When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?


Was that J*V?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3204. scott39
Have we had an invest in the Atlantic since June 1st?
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Quoting P451:
Good Morning.

72Hrs Gulf of Mexico Winds



Site: Link

Sad to see what is going on in the Gulf. Sadder to know that the worst is yet to come.

BP ought to do 2 things:

1) Lower their gas prices, by even a dollar, in the states affected.

2) Hire those who have lost their jobs due to the disaster (fisherman) to help clean up the mess, and, hire them at the wages they made in their lost jobs.


Other than that I don't know what to say.


BP can't afford to hire workers, they are too busy paying for full page ads and minute long tv commercials. I swear if I see one more of their commercials I'm going to throw something at my TV.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting IKE:
It's June. Cold fronts don't come down into the GOM very often...actually rarely. It continues through July...August...early September...on average.

It's usually SE to south winds. Sometimes it's east...or SW, but it's usually an onshore flow.

The oil volcano is still gushing. More and more oil is getting into the GOM daily. Anywhere from SE Texas coast over to the big bend of Florida and points beyond, this summer and for the foreseeable future....watch out for...

oil!


I've seen some oil forecast that says the oil may actually end up in England of all places. Oh the irony. I wonder if BP will think it's a big deal then.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3201. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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3200. IKE
Quoting hcubed:
CapeVerdeCanes=empty space - again.

Quick question about a ban. When someone is banned, I can see that all their old posts disappear also.

When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?


Looks like admin is quick to the action, so far.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Updated

Tropical Update





Wow that's an impressive wave. It's more to the north than some of the others. Let's see if it can hold it's convection over the open waters.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3198. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Accuweather take...

Jun 10, 2010 8:12 AM

A tropical wave nearing 70 west is heading west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Satellite images and surface observations show thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity. A few showers associated with the wave are lingering across the Lesser Antilles. There is a weak surface low across the south central Caribbean. We continue to observe strong westerly shear over this area. The combination of this shear and location of the surface low will greatly hinder further development of this system during the next few days. However, long range computer information suggests this feature might become better organized as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua next week.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we continue to track several tropical waves. However, we see no signs of organization and development is not expected with these other tropical waves for the next few days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel
Have you seen what direction it heads if it does develope?
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3197. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
0.0.0. ike


And that looks to continue for awhile. I'd say at least 10-14 days. Maybe the last 10 days of June? Maybe?

0-0-0.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hey everybody, I missed the blog for most of the day yesterday. What all did I miss? I saw that Cyclone Oz has been banned (for life?). What did he do? I always miss the fun!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3194. hcubed
CapeVerdeCanes=empty space - again.

Quick question about a ban. When someone is banned, I can see that all their old posts disappear also.

When the ban is lifted, does all their old posts come back too?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3193. IKE
Accuweather take...

Jun 10, 2010 8:12 AM

A tropical wave nearing 70 west is heading west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Satellite images and surface observations show thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity. A few showers associated with the wave are lingering across the Lesser Antilles. There is a weak surface low across the south central Caribbean. We continue to observe strong westerly shear over this area. The combination of this shear and location of the surface low will greatly hinder further development of this system during the next few days. However, long range computer information suggests this feature might become better organized as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua next week.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we continue to track several tropical waves. However, we see no signs of organization and development is not expected with these other tropical waves for the next few days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3192. scott39
Is the westerlies still so strong because of the time of the year?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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