La Niña by July?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.


Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.


Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2642 - 2592

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
would it survive the rack, 456?
Huh? I will try to answer but I don't know what the "rack" is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FWIW

The 12z UKMET (ECMWF's little brother) has a low in 72 hours.



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
456, would it survive the tracka cross the absin?


Now remember rule of thumb, waves don't die, they only lose convection and/or become less amplified.

First, I am not a 100% on development until it emerges, there is too much questions that need to be answered before we can be sure. Second, if it does develop, shear will be a moderator.

Let's use a hypothetical scenario...

The wave emerges and develops into TD 1 and Alex. Encounters shear in the western MDR. It is downgraded to a depression. It can either be further downgraded to an open wave and continue tracking west with the possibility of re-development or it can be downgraded to an open wave and dissipate (the original wave axis was replaced by a deeper system (named storm) so this wave axis can dissipate).
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
456 is the person to ask.


agreed but it is still a ridiculous question to ask lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting Fluid:


That might account for the bright yellow in Quadrant 1 of the oil gush, but what could possibly account for that red stuff in Quadrant III ?
\

the color spectrum of fire? for both? wouldn't the benzine burn differently?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WaterWitch11:
don't know if this is accurate but i was told that it could be the natural benzine catching on fire all by it's self. any comments?

It takes 15 O2 molecules to burn two benzene molecules...


"Like any other hydrocarbons, benzene and methylbenzene burn in a plentiful supply of oxygen to give carbon dioxide and water.

For benzene:
2 C6H6 15 O2 -> 12 CO2 6 H2O"


See: http://www.chemguide.co.uk/organicprops/arenes/other.html

If it is true benzene.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Hurricanes101:
How is anyone supposed to know if a tropical wave that is still 2 days away from coming off Africa can survive the shear?
456 is the person to ask.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

LOL

When did you peg this wave? Last Wednesday? Dang...


Props to you!
I agree. I think he might be psychic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2632. pottery
Quoting RTLSNK:


Cranial Turbulence, a little known weather anomaly caused by pressure changes to the pre-frontal lobe. For men of your advanced age, this could be serious, you should see a specialist. :)

No need to see the Specialist again.
What he prescribed, I am currently, presently, joyfully consuming.
It all has to do with regularising the predominant Cranial Internal Rotation, as you well know.
Being this close to the Equator, Cranial Internal Rotation can be contorted by bumps, jars, and clouts. It all has to do with Coriolis and stuff.
The Prescribed Medicine tends to correct this anomaly, and return the thing to the correct rotation.
All is now well.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24100
How is anyone supposed to know if a tropical wave that is still 2 days away from coming off Africa can survive the shear and make it across the Basin?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Sure
Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Its between 0E and 5W

LOL

When did you peg this wave? Last Wednesday? Dang...


Props to you!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Is anyone else having issues with Weatherunderground loading weird?
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
2627. DDR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


His first handle was JFV back in 2007. He wasnt such a bad kid. He was actually very nice. Then he found out that if he acted annoying and idiotic then he'd gain all the attention of the blog. I believe that he's much smarter than most of the people on here give him credit for.

He's been playing them like a fiddle for two years now and he's been loving every second.

Back on topic...

lol..is true
Desert blooms in aruba? I don't think aruba has many flowering plants to begin with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Stormchaser2007,

Can you post the NOGAPS link. I lost in in my bookmarks.


Sure
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Is that Frances and Ivan?


Ivan the terrible.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Been a while since we've seen one of these.


Is that Frances and Ivan?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Its a light from another RoV coming at an angle. IMACO

No, the 2 Skandi ROVs look at the same thing from opposite sides. Orange/yellow in the middle of the plume both ways.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting weather42009:
W456,

Where is the wave currently? You predicted the last one with great accuracy so I am inclined to believe you on this one.


Its between 0E and 5W
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Stormchaser2007,

Can you post the NOGAPS link. I lost in in my bookmarks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wonder what 30-31C waters will do to it.



Been a while since we've seen one of these.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The wave is circled in green.



Man I can't believe that's in front of my eyes! The thing's convection spread is half the height of the entire "African Panhandle"!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
baltimore, why do you care?

them 3 initials sure aren't a blog topic...maybe Baltimore-person should make his/her own blog about the-initialed-person-that-isn't-in-any-way-the-reason-most-come-to-this-blog-nor-posted-about-by-drM -and-thus-not-an-appropriate-topic-of-conversation.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2614. Fluid
Quoting WaterWitch11:
don't know if this is accurate but i was told that it could be the natural benzine catching on fire all by it's self. any comments?


That might account for the bright yellow in Quadrant 1 of the oil gush, but what could possibly account for that red stuff in Quadrant III ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its a light from another RoV coming at an angle. IMACO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WaterWitch11:
don't know if this is accurate but i was told that it could be the natural benzine catching on fire all by it's self. any comments?


Seems plausible.

Pretty cool.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
456, is this trheat? sinc ethe ECMWF is very special when it comes to development.


yup get your shower curtain ready and man your battle stations
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Any wave developing will likely head west and I think its intensity will be moderated by shear in the western section of the MDR, which in turn, will steering it more west (low level flow for a shallow system impacted by shear).

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting weather42009:
W456,

Where is the wave currently? You predicted the last one with great accuracy so I am inclined to believe you on this one.
The wave is circled in green.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The BEAST behind it. I've got to say, that's one hell of a wave for June. I think records will be broken from it.


Yeah that's a pretty incredible wave. They just keep getting stronger and stronger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
don't know if this is accurate but i was told that it could be the natural benzine catching on fire all by it's self. any comments?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Further intensify it, duh, lol.

SAL has seemed to decreased somewhat.




Somewhat? for June this is very tame I don't know why a TS hasn't formed yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

CNN website has a link.

This page has all of them. The 2 Scandi one are pertinent at the moment.

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605

I have seen lately that the CNN feeds can be outdated...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Does anyone know what jfv's real name is.And what was his first handle.


His first handle was JFV back in 2007. He wasnt such a bad kid. He was actually very nice. Then he found out that if he acted annoying and idiotic then he'd gain all the attention of the blog. I believe that he's much smarter than most of the people on here give him credit for.

He's been playing them like a fiddle for two years now and he's been loving every second.

Back on topic...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
2602. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:

Yeah! That's what it is! Cranial Turbulence. Happens all the time...


Cranial Turbulence, a little known weather anomaly caused by pressure changes to the pre-frontal lobe. For men of your advanced age, this could be serious, you should see a specialist. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty vigorous wave over Africa. Assuming thats our wave...

Right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
W456,

Where is the wave currently? You predicted the last one with great accuracy so I am inclined to believe you on this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wonder what 30-31C waters will do to it.

Further intensify it, duh, lol.

SAL has seemed to decreased somewhat.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Does anyone know what jfv's real name is.And what was his first handle.


His first handle was JFV haha.. don't know about his real life name tho. (don't really care to know it either)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is that?

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2594. pottery
Quoting JDSmith:
Post a link to the oil Cam please?

CNN website has a link.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24100
Pretty vigorous wave over Africa. Assuming thats our wave...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Are you guys pointing out the wave closest to coming off, or that BEAST behind it?
The BEAST behind it. I've got to say, that's one hell of a wave for June. I think records will be broken from it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2642 - 2592

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
80 °F
Partly Cloudy