La Niña by July?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2010

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El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.


Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.


Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

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here is a link to let you see the oil leak that looks like its on FIRE give me your thoughts...

http://mfile.akamai.com/97892/live/reflector:45685.asx?bkup=49182

Link
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Quoting Weather456:


lol, I tracked both of those storms....they stick in ur head for future references...

Also Lisa 2004


Isidore 1990, which holds the record for the southernmost development in the Atlantic Basin at 7.2N
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Vorticity continues to increase with the wave over Africa and a large anticyclone is located with the wave




Looks like it will come off at about 10N-12N. a bit higher than the rest that have fizzled out. Will be interesting to watch once it hits water.
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Quoting Weather456:


lol, I tracked both of those storms....they stick in ur head for future references...

Also Lisa 2004


Excellent memory. Thanks man.
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Quoting Ameister12:


Mad skills! LOL
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Even last year we got 2 Cape Verde canes, and that was a bad year for activity. So we definitely could see many more this year, although I suspect given the current atmospheric patterns we will see more waves emerge, and then develop in the Caribbean or CATL.
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2735. Ossqss
Quoting atmoaggie:

This still shows the orange colors, has the current time: http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/loc al_assets/html/Skandi_ROV1.html

What are you guys looking at?


I would add, orange colors that cannot be reflection based. IMHO
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Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


How do you get this info so quickly?

Cause he has skills.
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Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


How do you get this info so quickly?


lol, I tracked both of those storms....they stick in ur head for future references...

Also Lisa 2004
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Quoting Weather456:


No

Hurricane Karen 2007
Hurricane Irene 2005

Okay disregard my prior comment, I was looking at a table of storms, and didn't see the "major" only tag checked lol.
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2731. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MrstormX:
Interesting tidbit, off all the Cape Verde Hurricanes recorded every single one of them was a major hurricane.
cause thats where the monsters come from
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


No

Hurricane Karen 2007
Hurricane Irene 2005


How do you get this info so quickly?
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Weather456 do you see us beating the record in 2008,when bertha was the earliest cape verde storm on record.I wouldn;t be surprised.


Not looking for it but will not be surprised.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Interesting tidbit, off all the Cape Verde Hurricanes recorded every single one of them was a major hurricane.


No

Hurricane Karen 2007
Hurricane Irene 2005
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2725. SLU
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I worked on something interesting today.

I calculated an average hurricane track for each season going back 30 years.

I found that the average track is on a five year cycle, oscillating west to east then resetting far west.

In 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, the average hurricane track is the furthest west (brushing up the west coast of Fl).

The year after each of those years the average moved about 100 miles east.

The years after that, another 100 miles east, etc.

The years with the tracks occurring on average furthest to the east were 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006. These years are the final years of the five year cycle.

2010 is the fourth year in the five year cycle, so we can expect an average track similar to 1995, 2000, 2005. Those years all features an average track starting all the way near Africa, bending north to barely avoid the windward and leeward islands, and following the east coast of the US about 100 miles offshore.

If anyone has heard of this cycle at all, let me know, because I never had and didn't really expect to find a cycle when going through the data.

I imagine this has a lot to do with the strength of the highs in the Atlantic... they must be cyclical.


nice research
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
What a wave for june.JAS(july,august,september) could see some intense cape verde systems this year.

Yeah. There's a very good possibility.
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Quoting Fluid:
You can now see that the red stuff is something arising from a very narrow vortex.... the vortex itself changes color.
Fluid, there are people discussing live feeds here.
http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php/topic,68178.msg1079478/topicseen.html#new
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I lost the ROV info on the screen too...sumpin's up

This still shows the orange colors, has the current time: http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/loc al_assets/html/Skandi_ROV1.html

What are you guys looking at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting tidbit, off all the Cape Verde Hurricanes recorded every single one of them was a major hurricane.
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Most models carry the wave vorticity with it west. The funny thing about it, this vorticity may or may not be a tropical storm. Sometimes, not even that the models can pick up.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Wow! That's very impressive.


Thanks. Sorry, Just got on. What makes it worth watching? Must be intense if it has not exited Africa.

Sorry. Responded to wrong post. My bad.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
not so sure about that.
Not on the BP feed, it isn't.
(CNN may be looping? wouldn't that be scandalous)


I lost the ROV info on the screen too...sumpin's up
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Quoting Ameister12:

Wow! That's very impressive.


Thanks. Sorry, Just got on. What makes it worth watching? Must be intense if it has not exited Africa.
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2714. Becca36
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Been a while since we've seen one of these.

I hated that couple of weeks!
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2713. SLU


Coming to think of it ... the ECMWF development is not all that far fetched because the long-range GFS has been consistenly showing a disturbance, albeit a relatively weak one, reaching the Caribbean around the 20th of June which is about the same time frame as the ECMWF ......
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2712. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


big picture as of 912 pm edt
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somethin ain't right folks

all i have to say is that was not flipping ribbon - i see the ribbon now - but what we were looking at earlier - no way
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Quoting pottery:

The feed is back. The fire is out..
not so sure about that.
Not on the BP feed, it isn't.
(CNN may be looping? wouldn't that be scandalous)
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Yes, actually. The African Wave over Africa.
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2706. pottery
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I worked on something interesting today.

I calculated an average hurricane track for each season going back 30 years.

I found that the average track is on a five year cycle, oscillating west to east then resetting far west.

In 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, the average hurricane track is the furthest west (brushing up the west coast of Fl).

The year after each of those years the average moved about 100 miles east.

The years after that, another 100 miles east, etc.

The years with the tracks occurring on average furthest to the east were 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006. These years are the final years of the five year cycle.

2010 is the fourth year in the five year cycle, so we can expect an average track similar to 1995, 2000, 2005. Those years all features an average track starting all the way near Africa, bending north to barely avoid the windward and leeward islands, and following the east coast of the US about 100 miles offshore.

If anyone has heard of this cycle at all, let me know, because I never had and didn't really expect to find a cycle when going through the data.

I imagine this has a lot to do with the strength of the highs in the Atlantic... they must be cyclical.

What an interesting observation.
It would be good to hear the views of 456, StormW, Levi, Drak etc on this.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Holy cow!

Haven't seen an anticyclone with a wave like that in a while!


850 vort looks pretty impressive:

Wow! That's very impressive.
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Is tehre anything to watch in teh tropics?
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2702. Ossqss
Quoting pottery:

Yeah! Its gone. But it does that from time to time.
Hope it comes back..


Here is the direct to the item in question :)

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/loc al_assets/html/Skandi_ROV1.html
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Bill was such a large storm all thoughout it's life time.Imo if shear and and sal arn't strong then,I wouldn't be suprise to see a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane.
If it were August. IF it does develop I doubt to see it exceed tropical storm intensity.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Let me be the first to ask the question.Is it headed for miami good sir.LoL.


No it's going to skirt the coast tear up the Outer Banks and then bull's eye on Baltimore peer suck all the fish out of the aquarium and dump them back in the Ocean.
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2699. pottery
Quoting pottery:

Yeah! Its gone. But it does that from time to time.
Hope it comes back..

The feed is back. The fire is out.
LOL man, that was weird...
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Quoting CapeVerdeCanes:
Geeze, why does it have such a strong anti-cyclone over it?


Remember the blog from Sunday....strong AEWs (those that develop south of the jet as this one did) is capped by an upper anticyclone branch from the Asian Monsoon high

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I worked on something interesting today.

I calculated an average hurricane track for each season going back 30 years.

I found that the average track is on a five year cycle, oscillating west to east then resetting far west.

In 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, the average hurricane track is the furthest west (brushing up the west coast of Fl).

The year after each of those years the average moved about 100 miles east.

The years after that, another 100 miles east, etc.

The years with the tracks occurring on average furthest to the east were 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006. These years are the final years of the five year cycle.

2010 is the fourth year in the five year cycle, so we can expect an average track similar to 1995, 2000, 2005. Those years all features an average track starting all the way near Africa, bending north to barely avoid the windward and leeward islands, and following the east coast of the US about 100 miles offshore.

If anyone has heard of this cycle at all, let me know, because I never had and didn't really expect to find a cycle when going through the data.

I imagine this has a lot to do with the strength of the highs in the Atlantic... they must be cyclical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WaterWitch11:
my connection for cnn feed is no longer working. frozen


try this one;

http://newsblogged.com/video-live-streaming-gulf-oil-spill-cam-bp-webcam
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
my connection for cnn feed is no longer working. frozen

Use this: http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605

Skandi - 1 is the most clear for the moment.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Nice and warm.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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