Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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The models are coming into agreement, but the timeframe is so far out that I don't trust it yet. Should a system like that verify, I'd hate to see what happens to all that oil.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting SevereHurricane:


00Z CMC



Can you see now?


Sorry but, that shows JUNE 21ST......That is a crazy 14 days out......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting SevereHurricane:


00Z CMC



Can you see now?


beyond 7 days he said

348 hours is 16 days and should be taken with a giant grain of salt
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Quoting DestinJeff:
well we're up over 50 posts, so right on cue we move from "Thanks Doc" posts to the more typical type stuff ...

it is all great stuff. this is a great forum no matter your position on things.


lol
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canelover dude is so in love with himself and delusional it is funny lol

I think he is one troll I would never ignore lol
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996 mb low will be 400 miles farther west
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Dewpoints hitting 80 again in TX, oppressive out here


Its just as bad over here. Normally I can handle the heat but this is just unbearable.
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Good morning/Afternoon!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
46. SevereHurricane 3:41 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting MrstormX:


Hmm now we have models beginning to verify each other, this is looking like a possibility in terms of development.


The CMC also shows the system in the same time frame as the GFS.


I have no idea what you are seeing as the models show absolutely nothing for the next 7 days as Dr. Masters said.....NOTHING! Beyond 7 days means nothing!



00Z CMC



Can you see now?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you should have been here yesterday
LOL keeper
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Same. Birds can sense upcoming storms via pressure drops, but believing that they can sense a hurricane two to five months out is just superstition.


When they start flying i start driving.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Same. Birds can sense upcoming storms via pressure drops, but believing that they can sense a hurricane two to five months out is just superstition.


They might be able to, but I lived through Hurricane Andrew and believe me when I say there were a lot of dead birds after that storm. I'm sure a few of the smarter birds figured it out and flew away, but many die in storms.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
12z GFS develops a low in the SW Caribbean in 111 hours.
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Quoting hurricanelover236:
I was just observing yesterday and I can guarantee that floridians can breath easy this year. Its all in the actions of the birds who have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds and everyone can breath easy. Its not the year for hurricanes.
Really! Wow I hope your right but I don't think I will breath easy because of your birds LOL
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Quoting CapeCoralStorm:


That might be the most irresponsible, ignorant post i have ever seen on here.
you should have been here yesterday
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Dewpoints hitting 80 again in TX, oppressive out here
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I know i am not the Smartest in the world, but have done a lot of reading about the Oil Gusher. Seems at the pressure the OIL is almost like steel coming out! With that wouldn't the oil coming out along the sides of the top start to break down and start cutting into the top. JUST ASKING!
I don't think the velocity is that high. I watched the ROV hold the motor of the diamond saw right in the plume to get a better angle when cutting off that piece of metal that stuck out after they sheared the riser pipe off. There is probably some sand in that stuff causing some abrasion, but I do not think that will be a factor for the short intended life time of that cap.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Thank goodness. I guess I can stop coming here for the rest of the season. I don't even need to monitor the weather now.

Um, just kidding.

Please explain to me how the birds have any clue about the hurricane season?


Same. Birds can sense upcoming storms via pressure drops, but believing that they can sense a hurricane two to five months out is just superstition.
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Quoting hurricanelover236:
I was just observing yesterday and I can guarantee that floridians can breath easy this year. Its all in the actions of the birds who have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds and everyone can breath easy. Its not the year for hurricanes.


While I do agree that animals have a sense we do not about weather, I think it might only apply when a storm is very near landfall. I'm not sure it applies when there is not even a storm on the map. Not something you can rely on or base an entire season on...
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Quoting hurricanelover236:
I was just observing yesterday and I can guarantee that floridians can breath easy this year. Its all in the actions of the birds who have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds and everyone can breath easy. Its not the year for hurricanes.


I just looked out over my lake and i see no birds other than a some ducks diving under for cover........AHH they may be fishing or practicing what is to come! I would listen to the birds but, they are up to there necks in OIL just sayn!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Good day fellow WUers!
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Quoting CapeCoralStorm:


That might be the most irresponsible, ignorant post i have ever seen on here.


he/she has been downcasting the season since he/she joined.
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Quoting hurricanelover236:
I was just observing yesterday and I can guarantee that floridians can breath easy this year. Its all in the actions of the birds who have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds and everyone can breath easy. Its not the year for hurricanes.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

1 for the birds and O for the forecasters LOL
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Quoting hurricanelover236:
I was just observing yesterday and I can guarantee that floridians can breath easy this year. Its all in the actions of the birds who have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds and everyone can breath easy. Its not the year for hurricanes.


Thank goodness. I guess I can stop coming here for the rest of the season. I don't even need to monitor the weather now.

Um, just kidding.

Please explain to me how the birds have any clue about the hurricane season?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting hurricanelover236:
I was just observing yesterday and I can guarantee that floridians can breath easy this year. Its all in the actions of the birds who have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds and everyone can breath easy. Its not the year for hurricanes.


That might be the most irresponsible, ignorant post i have ever seen on here.
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46. SevereHurricane 3:41 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting MrstormX:


Hmm now we have models beginning to verify each other, this is looking like a possibility in terms of development.


The CMC also shows the system in the same time frame as the GFS.


I have no idea what you are seeing as the models show absolutely nothing for the next 7 days as Dr. Masters said.....NOTHING! Beyond 7 days means nothing!

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting TampaSpin:
I know i am not the Smartest in the world, but have done a lot of reading about the Oil Gusher. Seems at the pressure the OIL is almost like steel coming out! With that wouldn't the oil coming out along the sides of the top start to break down and start cutting into the top. JUST ASKING!
Have not heard that one even discussed. Seems like the riser would have broken off if that was the case.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hurricane territory is a bit of a hike for you I imagine unless you fly. Planning on any more tornado chases this year?


well it is a long ride, but a lot closer than New Mexico was :p

I honestly doubt I will do anymore tornado chasing this year unless some more close to home storms develop and Im off work
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
wow a nice new blog thanks doc

good day to all lunch time at the zoo
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I hope we get some rain along the coast here in SWFL it'll happen around sunset,if at all IMO(the east coast should get 1-2" easily)
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Quoting tornadodude:


well it depends on when I can get off work and such


Hurricane territory is a bit of a hike for you I imagine unless you fly. Planning on any more tornado chases this year?
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


are you gonna be along for any hurricane intercepts this season?


well it depends on when I can get off work and such
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
Quoting tornadodude:


not sure, probably a couple of weeks


are you gonna be along for any hurricane intercepts this season?
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Quoting MrstormX:


Hmm now we have models beginning to verify each other, this is looking like a possibility in terms of development.


The CMC also shows the system in the same time frame as the GFS.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah...how long will you be down?


not sure, probably a couple of weeks
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
00Z GFS was last night, Dr M said no models are calling for development over the next 7 days

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Quoting kanc2001:


kinda sounds like a lightning strike
Yes
Quoting soflamac:
Also saw four inch diameter branches go flying by, and when I drove out of my development this morning I saw a scrub pine tree that had two 3-inch thick strips of bark torn off the tree. They were strips that started about thirty feet up and spiralled down and around the tree to the trunk. Must have been from branches being torn off...it was very impressive.
Sounds exactly like what a pine I saw get struck by lightning looked like...and had a thrust upwards shovel-full of soil at the base of the tree where the bolt went into the earth. Follow the bark-stripped parts down to the soil and you might see the same.
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Oz, did you receive my weekend email?
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
Good Morning Everyone! I see that the 00Z GFS and CMC both show tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean and advect the cyclone northward into the Gulf of Mexico.


Hmm now we have models beginning to verify each other, this is looking like a possibility in terms of development.
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Good Morning Everyone! I see that the 00Z GFS and CMC both show tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean and advect the cyclone northward into the Gulf of Mexico.
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New surface map (12Z) check it out SW Caribbean



Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11774
12Z GFS coming out now
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Quoting tornadodude:


awesome!

stoked for this years hurricane intercepts for sure!

did you get my wumail?


Yeah...how long will you be down?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3622
I know i am not the Smartest in the world, but have done a lot of reading about the Oil Gusher. Seems at the pressure the OIL is almost like steel coming out! With that wouldn't the oil coming out along the sides of the top start to break down and start cutting into the top. JUST ASKING!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting CycloneOz:
Hot damn!

I just figured out how to mount the portable live webcam to my backpack...perfectly!

That only took a year to do...but WOW! Right on time for this coming season.

There's nothing stopping us now!


awesome!

stoked for this years hurricane intercepts for sure!

did you get my wumail?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
"Link
Podcasts can be found on the right."

Thanks Aussie - I guess I just checked too soon...

Thanks again!!
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Hot damn!

I just figured out how to mount the portable live webcam to my backpack...perfectly!

That only took a year to do...but WOW! Right on time for this coming season.

There's nothing stopping us now!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3622

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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