Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 132 - 82

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting DestinJeff:
question about the over-whelming idea that models are worthless beyond one week ...

if a model shows a TC at Day 14, it is usually thought of as unreliable ...

so if a model shows no TC at Day 14 is it conisdered equally as unreliable?


yes it is. The whole GFS is unreliable past a week regardless of what it shows
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Also, look at the very strong tropical wave that is progged to exit the African coastline in the same time frame.
That tropical wave to emerge from africa will be the first real concern this season when it gets into the western caribbean in my opinion but lets see what happens.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting extreme236:
Discussion out of NWS PR from this morning:

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM AST MON JUN 7 2010/

SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PR WILL
RETROGRESS WITH AXIS TO STRETCH ALONG 70W BY TUE. TROUGH
FILLS/WEAKENS MID WEEK WITH STRONG MID LVL RIDGING BUILDING OVR THE
AREA. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
FRI-SAT BRINGING POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER.



12z GFS reflects that nicely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twhcracker:


i have heard a lot of birds travel in the eye. maybe just lore tho.


I think they do. I've seen video with birds flying around in the eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Discussion out of NWS PR from this morning:

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM AST MON JUN 7 2010/

SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PR WILL
RETROGRESS WITH AXIS TO STRETCH ALONG 70W BY TUE. TROUGH
FILLS/WEAKENS MID WEEK WITH STRONG MID LVL RIDGING BUILDING OVR THE
AREA. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
FRI-SAT BRINGING POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


They're the only thing to look at...right now.

***ah...good swig of ice-cold cola!***


Not helping IKE! lol I am trying to quit soda.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


5-7 days out on the GFS you can see a disturbance in the Western Caribbean, and even farther out a low pressure is with the system. Maybe not a "storm" but some type of disturbance to watch.


Also, look at the very strong tropical wave that is progged to exit the African coastline in the same time frame.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


They're the only thing to look at...right now.

***ah...good swig of ice-cold cola

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting DestinJeff:
question about the over-whelming idea that models are worthless beyond one week ...

if a model shows a TC at Day 14, it is usually thought of as unreliable ...

so if a model shows no TC at Day 14 is it conisdered equally as unreliable?



No it does not and good point, but i would bet you 50cents on my $1.00 that for everytime a model shows a storm developing beyond 7 days and you bet on it.....i would become a wealthy person before you! Jeff i like your thinking tho!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I agree long term models are unreliable and should be takin with a grain of salt but they are fun to look at!


If long-range models were accurate, we would be up to Julia by now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
122. IKE
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I agree long term models are unreliable and should be takin with a grain of salt but they are fun to look at!


They're the only thing to look at...right now.

***ah...good swig of ice-cold cola!***
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


They might be able to, but I lived through Hurricane Andrew and believe me when I say there were a lot of dead birds after that storm. I'm sure a few of the smarter birds figured it out and flew away, but many die in storms.


i have heard a lot of birds travel in the eye. maybe just lore tho.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anything pass 120hrs is
I agree long term models are unreliable and should be takin with a grain of salt but they are fun to look at!
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting Hurricanes101:
MJO isn't exactly the gospel

While it is easier to get development during an upward phase, development can still occur in a neutral or downward phase



Once again, I know. Why do you think I am still mentioning it? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Got some Coca-Cola and some chips!

Fire away WU bloggers!

WOOHOO!
Spilling over from yesterday I see. To early to drink LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


I did look at 3 major models and nothing is out there at 7 days out! Show me a storm at 7 days on any of the major models!


5-7 days out on the GFS you can see a disturbance in the Western Caribbean, and even farther out a low pressure is with the system. Maybe not a "storm" but some type of disturbance to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hope I am not imposing on anyone.When the season gets going I will be out of your way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
question about the over-whelming idea that models are worthless beyond one week ...

if a model shows a TC at Day 14, it is usually thought of as unreliable ...

so if a model shows no TC at Day 14 is it conisdered equally as unreliable?


Brilliant! You have to have that kind of a mind set to be a successful forecaster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
question about the over-whelming idea that models are worthless beyond one week ...

if a model shows a TC at Day 14, it is usually thought of as unreliable ...

so if a model shows no TC at Day 14 is it conisdered equally as unreliable?


Very philosphical. It's like stating If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

But in reality climatic conditions are subject to change 2 days out that would negate the model solutions at day 10 and beyond. Instead, new solutions would yield different results for the later days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
112. IKE
Got some Coca-Cola and some chips!

Fire away WU bloggers!

WOOHOO!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
anything pass 120hrs is
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
GFS may not be showing anything very impressive later in the week and on it's run but it shows some type of disturbance that bears watching.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MJO isn't exactly the gospel

While it is easier to get development during an upward phase, development can still occur in a neutral or downward phase

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Maybe if you looked at a model you would know what were talking about lol


I did look at 3 major models and nothing is out there at 7 days out! Show me a storm at 7 days on any of the major models!

HERE IS THE MODEL LINK FOR YOU TO LOOK AT
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting extreme236:


Maybe if you looked at a model you would know what were talking about lol


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
question about the over-whelming idea that models are worthless beyond one week ...

if a model shows a TC at Day 14, it is usually thought of as unreliable ...

so if a model shows no TC at Day 14 is it conisdered equally as unreliable?


Ha! I love it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Its already at the coast here. Its so heartbreaking.


I know, but a hurricane would make it even worse than it already is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
103. 7544
good update strom w thanks hi all and tampaspin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I understand that but we have been having models verify each other for the last 3 weeks now on developing systems

How many named storms do we have so far?


None. I find it unnecessary to let your guard down. I like the prospects for this region and climatology backs up the models, even though it is quite far out. The only negative I see at this time is positive MJO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
question about the over-whelming idea that models are worthless beyond one week ...

if a model shows a TC at Day 14, it is usually thought of as unreliable ...

so if a model shows no TC at Day 14 is it conisdered equally as unreliable?


That is a good point lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SevereHurricane:


00Z CMC



Can you see now?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Im still saying end of june early july when we will see our first storm.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting TampaSpin:
46. SevereHurricane 3:41 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting MrstormX:


Hmm now we have models beginning to verify each other, this is looking like a possibility in terms of development.


The CMC also shows the system in the same time frame as the GFS.


I have no idea what you are seeing as the models show absolutely nothing for the next 7 days as Dr. Masters said.....NOTHING! Beyond 7 days means nothing!



Maybe if you looked at a model you would know what were talking about lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


It would also bring a lot of the oil to the coast.


Its already at the coast here. Its so heartbreaking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JUNE 07, 2010 ISSUED 12:00 NOON PHTFC
Great update stormW!
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sorry but, that shows JUNE 21ST......That is a crazy 14 days out......LOL


Well StormW mentioned the GFS model run in his blog so its worth monitoring..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I know Tampa. All I was doing is pointing out that the GFS isn't the only model spitting out a TC as a result of the moisture/heat build up that is anticipated to take place. Also, that is the CMC Ensemble Mean, so I believe it has slightly more merit than the operational GFS.


I understand that but we have been having models verify each other for the last 3 weeks now on developing systems

How many named storms do we have so far?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hurricane will help dilute that oil to a point, like being in a washer machine nature will clean the ocean


It would also bring a lot of the oil to the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JUNE 07, 2010 ISSUED 12:00 NOON PHTFC


Great Job as always
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JUNE 07, 2010 ISSUED 12:00 NOON PHTFC

Great work as always.
Wednesday we have the new ENSO wrap up from the BOM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JUNE 07, 2010 ISSUED 12:00 NOON PHTFC
Hi Storm and thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sorry but, that shows JUNE 21ST......That is a crazy 14 days out......LOL


I know Tampa. All I was doing is pointing out that the GFS isn't the only model spitting out a TC as a result of the moisture/heat build up that is anticipated to take place. Also, that is the CMC Ensemble Mean, so I believe it has slightly more merit than the operational GFS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is the easiest way to convert mb into an estimated wind speed?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane will help dilute that oil to a point, like being in a washer machine nature will clean the ocean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:
The models are coming into agreement, but the timeframe is so far out that I don't trust it yet. Should a system like that verify, I'd hate to see what happens to all that oil.


well the 111 hours that the 12Z GFS shows is much more believable than the shot in the dark the CMC was showing last night lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


beyond 7 days he said

348 hours is 16 days and should be taken with a giant grain of salt


You don't have to tell me that. I am well aware of how to interpret model data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The models are coming into agreement, but the timeframe is so far out that I don't trust it yet. Should a system like that verify, I'd hate to see what happens to all that oil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 132 - 82

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron