Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Quoting TampaSpin:
MJO returns to the Atlantic Basin the 1st and 2nd week in July.....All hell is gonna break loose the 1st half of July......WATCH OUT THEN!
Yep early july is when the floodgates open!
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Some of you may not be reading this because evidently I have been placed on the ignore list-guess I missed the announcement. Sorry for the post length…

Could someone tell me what I've done wrong? In post # 87 I asked a question and got no response. It's probably a dumb question, but still weather related. If this was the first time it had happened, it would be no big deal. It amazes me being in here for a weekend of 5,000 posts...mostly over nothing...watching the back and forth that goes on between some of y'all. The continued chatter about/with certain members is hilarious (you know who I'm talking about).

Anyway, back to the point. I apologize if I am not as educated as some/most of you, but I do enjoy learning and am fascinated by all types of weather. That is the reason I come to this blog...to learn. I am not trying to cause an argument or get attention. Just wondering why some of us are ignored and others who shouldn't even be allowed in here get responses almost immediately?

Update: Thanks Oz for posting that chart in post # 139. It was not in response to my question, but posted so the comments didn’t go crazy over 996 mb.
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MJO returns to the Atlantic Basin the 1st and 2nd week in July.....All hell is gonna break loose the 1st half of July......WATCH OUT THEN!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'm not a car door. As a Star Trek villain once described us, I'm an ugly bag of water and tend to give a lot in situations like hurricanes.


The point being I hope your suit is stronger than an old fashioned metal car door.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


I got my paws on a Mex Coca Cola@. Flash-back to childhood time!

That's the good stuff! Takes me back to summers at my grandma's farm.
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176. IKE
CMC@12Z
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


And maybe a Category 5 proof building?
Quoting CycloneOz:


Does such a thing exist? I'll take my chances outside in the thing, if it comes to that.
a cat five with 200 mph winds will strip the land of everything including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Quoting CycloneOz:


What skin?

You haven't seen the suit yet!

Ossqss...go ahead and show him one! :)


hehehe I know. But you have to worry about other debris. Ive seen pictures from the aftermath of Andrew with pieces of wood that were injected into car doors and made it to the other side. That would make me quite nervous.
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Quoting IKE:
Nothing in the Atlantic on the 12Z GFS through June 23rd.
steady as she goes prepare the main sail
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56089
Please say a prayer for our Gulf Coast. We really need the prayers going up.I live in Mobile Ala. and from the pics on the News we are headed for a really bad time as far as the Oil Spill.Not to mention if a hurricane comes our way.
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No development on the 12Z GFS. Nonetheless, it continues to show a significant build up of heat and moisture.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Question: Hey CycloneOz! What is the least amount of pressure you'd prefer to experience this year when you chase after hurricanes?

Answer: I'd prefer nothing lower than 935 millibars...but if I get stuck in a storm with a much lower pressure (890 or less,) I guess I'll be very glad to have a lash rope and personal epirb with me.


And maybe a Category 5 proof building?
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165. IKE
Nothing in the Atlantic on the 12Z GFS through June 23rd.
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NOAA's EPAC forecast suggests activity could be anywhere from well below-normal to near-normal (9-15 named storms is the forecast).
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Quoting DestinJeff:
really we should all enjoy this small window of time between where there is no activity and where there is no activity but with all the "this season is a bust!" type posts.

those posts will begin showing up like tarballs on a gulf coast beach, followed a week or so after by the true onslaught if nothing develops.

my modeling is "hinting at development" of these kinds of posts toward the last week of June, but that is beyond the typically accepted 7-day window of model accuracy.


LOL! It happened in 2008 then Bertha developed!
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Quoting jeffs713:

I would expect you (knowing you) to suit up, get out there in it, and go to the nearest psych facility after you are out of the hospital. (I have faith in your suit, but getting hit by something going 150mph is still going to do blunt trauma damage, and you should get checked out afterwards)


I'm willing to bet that in 150mph winds a leaf would be able to cut your skin.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Remember Dolly? LOL...went to bed with a Cat 1, and woke up to experience Cat 2 (or Cat 3, let's argue!)

Now...imagine that a Cat 4 with 940 millibars is 12 hours away from landfall. I go to bed and wake up and discover that the pressure has dropped to 890.

What would you have me do? Go ahead, suit up and get out there in it...or proceed to the nearest psychiatric facility for treatment?


I would perfer you just drink a hell of a lot Johnny Walker!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting CycloneOz:


Remember Dolly? LOL...went to bed with a Cat 1, and woke up to experience Cat 2 (or Cat 3, let's argue!)

Now...imagine that a Cat 4 with 940 millibars is 12 hours away from landfall. I go to bed and wake up and discover that the pressure has dropped to 890.

What would you have me do? Go ahead, suit up and get out there in it...or proceed to the nearest psychiatric facility for treatment?

I would expect you (knowing you) to suit up, get out there in it, and go to the nearest psych facility after you are out of the hospital. (I have faith in your suit, but getting hit by something going 150mph is still going to do blunt trauma damage, and you should get checked out afterwards)
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Remember Dolly? LOL...went to bed with a Cat 1, and woke up to experience Cat 2 (or Cat 3, let's argue!)

Now...imagine that a Cat 4 with 940 millibars is 12 hours away from landfall. I go to bed and wake up and discover that the pressure has dropped to 890.

What would you have me do? Go ahead, suit up and get out there in it...or proceed to the nearest psychiatric facility for treatment?


Similar thing happen with us and Katrina. Went to bed the night of the 27th with a 939mb Cat 3 Woke up and it was a 910mb Cat 5. Thats when my dad said we needed to leave.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


I agree. it seems that EPAC went from neutral condition to La Nina quicker than they thought it would. This agian portends a very active Atlantic season.

Right now, the only savior on the ENSO front is if we transition to a strong La Nina very quickly.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting jeffs713:

I think just based on ocean SST anomalies, a La Nina is already starting.


I agree. it seems that EPAC went from neutral condition to La Nina quicker than they thought it would. This agian portends a very active Atlantic season.
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Quoting extreme236:
In theory, the EPAC should see below-average activity should La Nina develop.


The WPAC should see below normal activity as well. Models show above normal MLSP anomalies in that region during the heart of the hurricane season.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Question: Hey CycloneOz! What is the least amount of pressure you'd prefer to experience this year when you chase after hurricanes?

Answer: I'd prefer nothing lower than 935 millibars...but if I get stuck in a storm with a much lower pressure (890 or less,) I guess I'll be very glad to have a lash rope and personal epirb with me.

Anything lower than 935, you are going from "driven" to "certifiably insane and suicidal"
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Thank you Severehurricane you are very kind.I want dare try to act like i know about the weather.I am just a curious observer lol.
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12z GFS shows a strong tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa at the 96 hour mark, but doesn't do much with it. Nonetheless, that could be the wave to watch over the next couple weeks.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
alright, class ..

of course the answer is no! the model that does not show a TC at Day 14 is not as unreliable as the one that does. reason? the default condition is that of no TC, so forecasting status quo is not all that far-fetched.

but I also assure you that once a model shows a TC threatening a certain area, no matter how "far-out" in days it is, many bloggers here will sing its praises for sure.



I must be the only one still hoping for 2-0-0
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting extreme236:
In theory, the EPAC should see below-average activity should La Nina develop.

I think just based on ocean SST anomalies, a La Nina is already starting.
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In theory, the EPAC should see below-average activity should La Nina develop.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I am trying to figure all this out so plz bare with me.


No problem. :) You are welcome here. If you have any questions shoot me a message.
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141. IKE
Only thing I see on the 12Z GFS is an east-PAC system...in the first week of the run.

Nothing much on the Atlantic side.
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Quoting gator23:

he is Downcaster number 1 he says that we will be fine this year and I believe him! NOT.
Hes just a teenager that thinks hes all that but doesnt know anything he still hasnt given any good reason why this season will be quiet every reason he gave its actually the oppisite thats happening.
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Quoting IKE:


They're the only thing to look at...right now.

***ah...good swig of ice-cold cola!***


I got my paws on a Mex Coca Cola@. Flash-back to childhood time!
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
I am trying to figure all this out so plz bare with me.
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Quoting CapeCoralStorm:


That might be the most irresponsible, ignorant post i have ever seen on here.

he is Downcaster number 1 he says that we will be fine this year and I believe him! NOT.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


12z GFS reflects that nicely I hope everyone has their Hurricane Preps underway>looks and sounds like we are in for a bad season this year.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Very philosphical. It's like stating If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

But in reality climatic conditions are subject to change 2 days out that would negate the model solutions at day 10 and beyond. Instead, new solutions would yield different results for the later days.

Here is the catch with all of that... models, historically, have tended to overestimate development of storms. It is MUCH more frequent to have a storm not develop in reality versus the model, than vice versa.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you should have been here yesterday


You get that troll sweeper program up and running might have to run it 24/7. Sell it to admin and I'd be willing to up my membership $5.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting DestinJeff:
question about the over-whelming idea that models are worthless beyond one week ...

if a model shows a TC at Day 14, it is usually thought of as unreliable ...

so if a model shows no TC at Day 14 is it conisdered equally as unreliable?


yes it is. The whole GFS is unreliable past a week regardless of what it shows
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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