Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Quoting DestinJeff:


I don't get scared until a storm gets its own news lead-in Graphic and theme music.


I get scared when TWC does the "local on the 8's" and that little computer voice says "Winds over 100 mph". That's when I get scared. I've heard that several times in the last few years but have yet to see any winds over 75 mph... Except for the time I evacuated Tampa for Charley and went to Orlando. We saw winds around 100 mph then. Fun times.
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AMY!!!!
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I for one know about the cone.I remember Ivan i beleive it was.He was forecasted to make landfall in Mobile instead right before landfall it turned East a little and hit close to Orange Beach in Gulf Shores.That was one I did not foresee at all.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
TS, the sheer is dropping quickly isn't it?


While shear has dropped significantly, if you look closely at the last update you can see the shear rising rapidly again. Wonder how long that'll last.
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Quoting Grothar:
An article appeared that the NHC mentioned that the Cone of Uncertainty would be much narrower this year than in previous years. It did not mention why, Does anyone know what they are doing differently this year?
They are hoping to achieve a higher caliber of accuracy.
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AMY!!!!!!
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Quoting TexasGulf:


I still offer to let you borrow a full suit of stainless steel medieval fighting armor with full visored helmet, gauntlets, articulated knees & elbows, breastplate, leggings... the whole smack. You have to provide your own boots though. The medieval heater-shield is extra.

That ought to withstand a Cat-5, but it will weigh about 80-90 lbs dry and 120 lbs when the padding gets wet. It will cut your running speed down to 5 mph maximum, but will keep you from getting blown away in high winds. Also, you WILL attract lightning while wearing it. The armor does NOT float and takes about 10 minutes to remove, so plan ahead for the storm surge.

Yours to borrow if you want. I'd be interested in seeing that video footage. If there is lightning anywhere near, metal armor may not be very safe though.


I've been able to bring the idea of a Cat 5 suit into the 21st century. No worries.... :)
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Steering Layer 700-850mb or 1000mb pressure 45kts storms

Steering Layer 500-850mb or 990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms

Steering Layer 400-850mb or 970-989mb/60-90kts storms

Steering Layer 300-850mb or 950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms

Steering Layer 250-850mb or 940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms

Steering Layer 200-700mb or 940mb pressure 122 kts and larger storms


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Quoting CaneWarning:
TS, the sheer is dropping quickly isn't it?


I'm not Tim but I for one agree that wind shear has dropped significantly.
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Quoting Grothar:


It bothers me too. Before I came on this blog, I did not truly understand it. Most people don't. I know they mention something like 100 miles on either side, it is still confusing.


I think the local news stations are supposed to scare you to death in cases like that. I know they tend to do that around here whenever there are storms out there.
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TS, the sheer is dropping quickly isn't it?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


that Cone thing bothers me ... you always here "if you are anywhere in this cone, you could be in the path of this storm."

the problem is that in reality you can easily be in the path of the storm even if you are outside the cone ... because as the forecast path shifts, so shifts the cone. there are plenty of examples where the cone has shifted 100s of miles one or another, so persons once not in the cone suddenly found themselves to be.

NHC ought to either widen the cone when the storm os a great distance from land, or simply state "area of uncertainty is too great" to display graphically. once a storm is within a more reasonable distance, then start with the cone.


It bothers me too. Before I came on this blog, I did not truly understand it. Most people don't. I know they mention something like 100 miles on either side, it is still confusing.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
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Actually, didn't the CPHC test that 12-hour extra lead time last year? I know they had to use it once for Felicia... I think the lead time's a good thing so more people might get prepared earlier. Granted, you should start before a watch or warning is posted, but it's a half a day they didn't have beforehand,
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Every year the cone is recalculated based on the past 5 years of actual forecast errors, and set at 2/3.


Now that makes sense.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting IKE:


It shows a nice vortex crossing the Caribbean...Link


(CNN) -- It will take years to completely clean up the damage from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster, Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the federal government's response manager for the oil disaster, said Monday.

"Dealing with the oil spill on the surface is going to go on for a couple of months. After that it'll be taken care of," Allen said in response to a reporter's question at a White House briefing. "I agree with you, long-term issues of restoring the environment and the habitats and stuff will be years."

The total amount of crude being collected from the ruptured undersea well responsible for the disaster increased Sunday to roughly 466,000 gallons -- or 11,100 barrels -- according to estimates from BP and Allen.

On Saturday, BP indicated it had increased the amount of crude being funneled to the surface to roughly 441,000 gallons. The oil is being funneled from a containment cap installed on the well to a drilling ship on the ocean surface.

Federal authorities estimate that 798,000 gallons of crude have been gushing into the sea every day.

Since the containment cap was installed on Friday, the total number of gallons of oil being captured on a daily basis has nearly doubled, Allen said Monday.

BP "anticipates moving another craft" to the well site shortly in order to raise the capacity of oil that could be captured on a daily basis to roughly 840,000 gallons, or 20,000 barrels, he said.


So they are now saying 20,000 barrels.....that is s long way from the 5,000 barrels they said.......GEESH....what a company of LIES and deception.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Remember Dolly? LOL...went to bed with a Cat 1, and woke up to experience Cat 2 (or Cat 3, let's argue!)

Now...imagine that a Cat 4 with 940 millibars is 12 hours away from landfall. I go to bed and wake up and discover that the pressure has dropped to 890.

What would you have me do? Go ahead, suit up and get out there in it...or proceed to the nearest psychiatric facility for treatment?


I still offer to let you borrow a full suit of stainless steel medieval fighting armor with full visored helmet, gauntlets, articulated knees & elbows, breastplate, leggings... the whole smack. You have to provide your own boots though. The medieval heater-shield is extra.

That ought to withstand a Cat-5, but it will weigh about 80-90 lbs dry and 120 lbs when the padding gets wet. It will cut your running speed down to 5 mph maximum, but will keep you from getting blown away in high winds. Also, you WILL attract lightning while wearing it. The armor does NOT float and takes about 10 minutes to remove, so plan ahead for the storm surge.

Yours to borrow if you want. I'd be interested in seeing that video footage. If there is lightning anywhere near, metal armor may not be very safe though.
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SQUAWK!!!
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Quoting 7544:


yes and also the xtra 12 hours andvance in the warnings this year hmmmm


Yes, that was also mentioned as well. Here is a link to the NOAA article. I was just interested inf anyone knew what changes they made. the article is not explicit.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning everyone.

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 7th


Nice!
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I see that BP is not only running full page ads in newpapers but they also have a brand new TV ad out. I don't care, I'm still boycotting.
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Quoting Grothar:
An article appeared that the NHC mentioned that the Cone of Uncertainty would be much narrower this year than in previous years. It did not mention why, Does anyone know what they are doing differently this year?


Every year the cone is recalculated based on the past 5 years of actual forecast errors, and set at 2/3.
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56 hurricanelover236 "...birds...have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds...Its not the year for hurricanes."

Well if being bird-brained makes a better weathercaster, then having no brains at all must closely approach perfection. And the mangos have spoken.
Reports from throughout the Caribbean* have indicated a bumper crop of mangos, of mangos so bad that YoMamas have been replaced by YoMangos.
Yep. For hurricanes this season, it's all gonna be about "I'm a BadMango! Fear me!"

* Actually two bloggers... with a mention of taking hard hits after bumper crops of yesteryear.
But what the heck, that's still twice the size of your sample.

Really do need a list of other Caribbean bloggers who can check up on the mangos in their own particular areas so we can check those reports against weather later in the season. Maybe we can start a new old wives' tale, or confirm an old one.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning everyone.

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 7th
Good morning levi
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Quoting Grothar:
An article appeared that the NHC mentioned that the Cone of Uncertainty would be much narrower this year than in previous years. It did not mention why, Does anyone know what they are doing differently this year?


Forecast accuracy has increased, so the cone can be smaller.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Have you seen Jim Edds' video of Hurricane Charley?

There's nothing in this "scene from hell" that I would not be able to withstand in the suit.

That just gave me an instant stomach ache..What a horrible day
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Good morning everyone.

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 7th
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Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS@12Z


IKE, stop that! We don't need that! :)
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I'm not a car door. As a Star Trek villain once described us, I'm an ugly bag of water and tend to give a lot in situations like hurricanes.


Saw a 2x4 driven through a 3' (~1 meter) diameter willow tree while cleaning up after 'nados in Alybam.

"made a big impression on me though I was just a young dumb kid"

You gonna be a lot uglier and guishier after a hit from one of those. LoL
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Well i guess it would help if i read the question right. So nevermind what i said.
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198. 7544
Quoting Grothar:
An article appeared that the NHC mentioned that the Cone of Uncertainty would be much narrower this year than in previous years. It did not mention why, Does anyone know what they are doing differently this year?


yes and also the xtra 12 hours andvance in the warnings this year hmmmm
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Some of you may not be reading this because evidently I have been placed on the ignore list-guess I missed the announcement. Sorry for the post length…

Could someone tell me what I've done wrong? In post # 87 I asked a question and got no response. It's probably a dumb question, but still weather related. If this was the first time it had happened, it would be no big deal. It amazes me being in here for a weekend of 5,000 posts...mostly over nothing...watching the back and forth that goes on between some of y'all. The continued chatter about/with certain members is hilarious (you know who I'm talking about).

Anyway, back to the point. I apologize if I am not as educated as some/most of you, but I do enjoy learning and am fascinated by all types of weather. That is the reason I come to this blog...to learn. I am not trying to cause an argument or get attention. Just wondering why some of us are ignored and others who shouldn't even be allowed in here get responses almost immediately?

Update: Thanks Oz for posting that chart in post # 139. It was not in response to my question, but posted so the comments didn’t go crazy over 996 mb.


I don't think you are ignored by most here. I ask questions here sometimes that never get answered. Don't take it personally.
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Deleted
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Quoting IKE:


It shows a nice vortex crossing the Caribbean...Link


(CNN) -- It will take years to completely clean up the damage from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster, Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the federal government's response manager for the oil disaster, said Monday.

"Dealing with the oil spill on the surface is going to go on for a couple of months. After that it'll be taken care of," Allen said in response to a reporter's question at a White House briefing. "I agree with you, long-term issues of restoring the environment and the habitats and stuff will be years."

The total amount of crude being collected from the ruptured undersea well responsible for the disaster increased Sunday to roughly 466,000 gallons -- or 11,100 barrels -- according to estimates from BP and Allen.

On Saturday, BP indicated it had increased the amount of crude being funneled to the surface to roughly 441,000 gallons. The oil is being funneled from a containment cap installed on the well to a drilling ship on the ocean surface.

Federal authorities estimate that 798,000 gallons of crude have been gushing into the sea every day.

Since the containment cap was installed on Friday, the total number of gallons of oil being captured on a daily basis has nearly doubled, Allen said Monday.

BP "anticipates moving another craft" to the well site shortly in order to raise the capacity of oil that could be captured on a daily basis to roughly 840,000 gallons, or 20,000 barrels, he said.
Yeah i saw that i dont know what i was saying there i guess im so used to seeing nothing on a model that its the first thing that comes to mind you know.
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An article appeared that the NHC mentioned that the Cone of Uncertainty would be much narrower this year than in previous years. It did not mention why, Does anyone know what they are doing differently this year?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Thanks for the responses. Just wanted to see what I might have done to be included on the community ignore list :)
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192. IKE
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Its looking like we may not have a named storm in june but cant say that with absoulute certainty


It shows a nice vortex crossing the Caribbean...Link


(CNN) -- It will take years to completely clean up the damage from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster, Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the federal government's response manager for the oil disaster, said Monday.

"Dealing with the oil spill on the surface is going to go on for a couple of months. After that it'll be taken care of," Allen said in response to a reporter's question at a White House briefing. "I agree with you, long-term issues of restoring the environment and the habitats and stuff will be years."

The total amount of crude being collected from the ruptured undersea well responsible for the disaster increased Sunday to roughly 466,000 gallons -- or 11,100 barrels -- according to estimates from BP and Allen.

On Saturday, BP indicated it had increased the amount of crude being funneled to the surface to roughly 441,000 gallons. The oil is being funneled from a containment cap installed on the well to a drilling ship on the ocean surface.

Federal authorities estimate that 798,000 gallons of crude have been gushing into the sea every day.

Since the containment cap was installed on Friday, the total number of gallons of oil being captured on a daily basis has nearly doubled, Allen said Monday.

BP "anticipates moving another craft" to the well site shortly in order to raise the capacity of oil that could be captured on a daily basis to roughly 840,000 gallons, or 20,000 barrels, he said.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I save the blue label stuff for after.

Before (and yes...even during), it's a flask of Glenfidich 12-year old single malt.
Glenfidich is has a good, smokey flavor.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS@12Z


Tropical Storm south of the Dominican Republic at day 7.

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Quoting 850Realtor:
What is the easiest way to convert mb into an estimated wind speed?
this is what i use

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
_________________________________________________________________


CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson

Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category

1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

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Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS@12Z
Well theres something there but im still saying early july.
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187. IKE
NOGAPS@12Z
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Some of you may not be reading this because evidently I have been placed on the ignore list-guess I missed the announcement. Sorry for the post length…

Could someone tell me what I've done wrong? In post # 87 I asked a question and got no response. It's probably a dumb question, but still weather related. If this was the first time it had happened, it would be no big deal. It amazes me being in here for a weekend of 5,000 posts...mostly over nothing...watching the back and forth that goes on between some of y'all. The continued chatter about/with certain members is hilarious (you know who I'm talking about).

Anyway, back to the point. I apologize if I am not as educated as some/most of you, but I do enjoy learning and am fascinated by all types of weather. That is the reason I come to this blog...to learn. I am not trying to cause an argument or get attention. Just wondering why some of us are ignored and others who shouldn't even be allowed in here get responses almost immediately?

Update: Thanks Oz for posting that chart in post # 139. It was not in response to my question, but posted so the comments didn’t go crazy over 996 mb.
Hey man no worries it happens youre not on my ignore list theres no reason to be on any ignore list you havent done anything to be on an ignore list
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Some of you may not be reading this because evidently I have been placed on the ignore list-guess I missed the announcement. Sorry for the post length…

Could someone tell me what I've done wrong? In post # 87 I asked a question and got no response. It's probably a dumb question, but still weather related. If this was the first time it had happened, it would be no big deal. It amazes me being in here for a weekend of 5,000 posts...mostly over nothing...watching the back and forth that goes on between some of y'all. The continued chatter about/with certain members is hilarious (you know who I'm talking about).

Anyway, back to the point. I apologize if I am not as educated as some/most of you, but I do enjoy learning and am fascinated by all types of weather. That is the reason I come to this blog...to learn. I am not trying to cause an argument or get attention. Just wondering why some of us are ignored and others who shouldn't even be allowed in here get responses almost immediately?

Update: Thanks Oz for posting that chart in post # 139. It was not in response to my question, but posted so the comments didn’t go crazy over 996 mb.


I saw your post. I just have no logical way of making that conversion.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Does such a thing exist? I'll take my chances outside in the storm, if it comes to that.


Come the surge you better cut the ropes and hope that suit floats like a cork. Nothing less than a race certified motorcycle helmet is gonna deflect a 150 mph 2x4 and then you're gonna be lucky if you don't have neck or back injuries. But what the heck you ain't right to start with. LOL
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting TampaSpin:
MJO returns to the Atlantic Basin the 1st and 2nd week in July.....All hell is gonna break loose the 1st half of July......WATCH OUT THEN!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
MJO returns to the Atlantic Basin the 1st and 2nd week in July.....All hell is gonna break loose the 1st half of July......WATCH OUT THEN!
Yep early july is when the floodgates open!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.