Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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interesting fact;my area,sarasota county in SWFL has NEVER in recorded history had a landfalling major hurricane!!!!!!
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281. Relix
Seems like the NWS in PR is taking a good look at our wave. Hopefully it doesn't become anything else though it ain't looking well right now.
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TROPICAL UPDATE
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting hurricanelover236:
I was just observing yesterday and I can guarantee that floridians can breath easy this year. Its all in the actions of the birds who have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds and everyone can breath easy. Its not the year for hurricanes.


IN THE EYE......Brad and I decided to document Hurricane Rita's eye by heading west out of the eastern eyewall into the eye. We were in a solid rugged Hummer and felt comfortable driving in these conditions because it was interstate roads the entire way into the eye (Interstate 10). This eye experience is my top of all time. We recorded a barometric pressure of 940mb ( My Personal Lowest ). My previous record was 942mb in Hurricane Charley and just when I thought that was going to be the highlight of the eye experience, BAM !!! A bird dives right into my windshield and it's wing gets stuck under the windshield wiper and keeps moving back and forth as the wipers wipe. It startled both of us ! We didn't see it coming, the bird just dove right out of the sky and straight down into the windshield. During the next 20 minutes while driving in the eye about 20 more birds repeated this scenario and died. There were also allot of birds that were already dead on the road and they were not run over, they either dove into someone else's windshield or just simply dropped out of the sky. I am going with the latter part because there was no one else on the roads during the eye experience. It felt like we were in the Alfred Hitchcock movie "The Birds". While driving in the eye we saw hundreds of these exhausted birds that must have been trapped in the eye for days and maybe even since Florida. Birds get trapped in the center of a developing system and literally get locked inside as the system develops into a organized hurricane with a well defined eye. The birds can't fly out because the eyewall surrounding the eye has wind speeds that would kill a bird instantly and the birds can't fly up and out of the Hurricane, this would be too high for the bird and the bird would die, So they are literally trapped! These erratic birds seemed possessed !
Link

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
what was that guys name that scolded me for asinine posts. I want to email him privately and tell him i am a rocket scientist compared to some on here...
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Quoting sarahjola:
looks more like an epac season than an atlantic


Not with those seemingly-developing La Nina conditions. La Nina's tend to supress EPAC development.
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Quoting stormchic:


Hi all, I'm a newbie here to the site. Hope you don't mind me stopping in?? The " hurricane music" does sound awful scary. lol Don't forget the hurricane flag blowing in the wind as the music plays..Canewarning are you from south fl? I am Homestead...


I lived in Homestead when Andrew hit. After that my family moved to the Tampa Bay area. I live in Tampa now. Welcome to the blog. :)
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Quoting sarahjola:
looks more like an epac season than an atlantic


You need to visit this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

You can see that this is completely normal.

The Atlantic normally has its first named storm on JULY 9th.

The EPAC normally has its first named storm on JUNE 10th.

You'll also notice that by the time the Atlantic is supposed to have its first storm, the EPAC should already have 3 named storms.

Right now the EPAC is ahead by 3 days, but that's only because of a little preseason storm that really has no indication of what the season will be like.
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Thought you might like this hydrus.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27477
Quoting StormW:


I was at the hurricane conference...it's because track error has improved over the past 5 years.

This table shows what the error is to be this season:

PRODUCT CHANGES FOR THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON


Thanks for the link Storm. Interesting read.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27477
Is there a tutorial anywhere for some of the maps you guys post? Some of them are really interesting and I'd like to understand them better.
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For those who are interested, the new iPhone 4 is currently presented by Apple. It's nice... new design, better 960x640px IPS screen, faster CPU..

LOL it's good for using WU on the go
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Quoting CaneWarning:


He does sound very cheerful when he says it. I can't wait to hear "hurricane music" again though. It always sounds so scary.


Hi all, I'm a newbie here to the site. Hope you don't mind me stopping in?? The " hurricane music" does sound awful scary. lol Don't forget the hurricane flag blowing in the wind as the music plays..Canewarning are you from south fl? I am Homestead...
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Richard!!!!
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Id keep an eye of the area by Panama, good conditions and some nice symmetry there
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looks more like an epac season than an atlantic
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.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23636
Quoting DestinJeff:
CONGRATULATIONS WU BLOGGERS!

~ 250 Posts on no mention of ...!!!!!!



There is always one in the crowd. LOl Come on we are having a good time this morning.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27477
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23636
Quoting DestinJeff:
CONGRATULATIONS WU BLOGGERS!

~ 250 Posts on no mention of ...!!!!!!



Was he banned overnight?
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Doda!!!!
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The upper levels seem to be pretty strong yet in some places. Not unusual for this time of year though. However, this may not be a usual year.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27477
Quoting DestinJeff:


i bet you can get it as a ringtone


Probably so. I'll probably be tired of it after this season anyway.
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Quoting serialteg:


isnt sheer a pantyhose? :D


Oops, one letter makes a big difference doesn't it! :)
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Quoting MTWX:

Have you watched that show Weather Proof on the Weather Channel. Some of the stuff they have on there is pretty wicked!!


I've seen that, really the only decent side show they have. It's like Mythbusters... But with weather... And without busting myths. o_O
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Quoting CaneWarning:
TS, the sheer is dropping quickly isn't it?


isnt sheer a pantyhose? :D
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243. MTWX
Quoting CycloneOz:


Does such a thing exist? I'll take my chances outside in the storm, if it comes to that.

Have you watched that show Weather Proof on the Weather Channel. Some of the stuff they have on there is pretty wicked!!
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156 CycloneOz "Now...imagine that a Cat 4 with 940 millibars is 12 hours away from landfall. I go to bed and wake up and discover that the pressure has dropped to 890.
What would you have me do? Go ahead, suit up and get out there in it...or proceed to the nearest psychiatric facility for treatment?
"

Suit up, then proceed to the farthest psychiatric hospital for treatment. No need to risk getting trapped in a powerless building for days upon days on end.
And wearing your hurricane suit in say...NewMexico oughtta speed up the check-in and evaluation immensely.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


What skin?

You haven't seen the suit yet!

Ossqss...go ahead and show him one! :)


Can I guess its a suit of armour?
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Quoting aspectre:
56 hurricanelover236 "...birds...have a far greater instinct of weather than humans. So trust the birds...Its not the year for hurricanes."

Well if being bird-brained makes a better weathercaster, then having no brains at all must closely approach perfection. And the mangos have spoken.
Reports from throughout the Caribbean* have indicated a bumper crop of mangos, of mangos so bad that YoMamas have been replaced by YoMangos.
Yep. For hurricanes this season, it's all gonna be about "I'm a BadMango! Fear me!"

* Actually two bloggers... with a mention of taking hard hits after bumper crops of yesteryear.
But what the heck, that's still twice the size of your sample.

Really do need a list of other Caribbean bloggers who can check up on the mangos in their own particular areas so we can check those reports against weather later in the season. Maybe we can start a new old wives' tale, or confirm an old one.


my mango tree is sure full of them... bodyboard ready, possibly goin' to the gym, busy surf season ahead :D i hope!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Yeah. I also laugh when a storm is approaching and the Local on the 8s guy still says, in that cheery voice, "Your Week Ahead!"


He does sound very cheerful when he says it. I can't wait to hear "hurricane music" again though. It always sounds so scary.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I get scared when TWC does the "local on the 8's" and that little computer voice says "Winds over 100 mph". That's when I get scared. I've heard that several times in the last few years but have yet to see any winds over 75 mph... Except for the time I evacuated Tampa for Charley and went to Orlando. We saw winds around 100 mph then. Fun times.


And to think, I freak out up here when a storm goes "winds 40-60 mph." Then again, every time they say that it ends up closer to 75... Might explain it.

Oh and if I lived near the coast and heard the TWC music from like 2005 when warnings were up I'd be getting in the car right away.
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I see the 12z GFS dropped development.
And when is the NOGAPS not developing something lol
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Quoting CaneWarning:
TS, the sheer is dropping quickly isn't it?


Yes it is.....in every part of the Tropical Atlantic the Shear is much lower than Climatology. Look at my Blog site and you can see it very easily!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting DestinJeff:


I don't get scared until a storm gets its own news lead-in Graphic and theme music.


I get scared when TWC does the "local on the 8's" and that little computer voice says "Winds over 100 mph". That's when I get scared. I've heard that several times in the last few years but have yet to see any winds over 75 mph... Except for the time I evacuated Tampa for Charley and went to Orlando. We saw winds around 100 mph then. Fun times.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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