Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Gonna on a hot bike ride.......NO fighting kids!
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The best pain killer is adrenaline, baby!

hmmmmm...maybe I better go run with the bulls then!


:)
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Quoting SaraGal:


Please don't put the 'hinky-jinks' on us! :)


YEP he did! He of all people should have known better to have done that....Its gonna be StillWaitings fault if i wait for power on minute because of a storm this year!
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Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting fact;my area,sarasota county in SWFL has NEVER in recorded history had a landfalling major hurricane!!!!!!


Please don't put the 'hinky-jinks' on us! :)
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Pretty good Convergence and Divergence in the Middle of the Atlantic....
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Quoting Grothar:
Thought you might like this hydrus.



Nice vis.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
Quoting TexasGulf:


I still offer to let you borrow a full suit of stainless steel medieval fighting armor with full visored helmet, gauntlets, articulated knees & elbows, breastplate, leggings... the whole smack. You have to provide your own boots though. The medieval heater-shield is extra.

That ought to withstand a Cat-5, but it will weigh about 80-90 lbs dry and 120 lbs when the padding gets wet. It will cut your running speed down to 5 mph maximum, but will keep you from getting blown away in high winds. Also, you WILL attract lightning while wearing it. The armor does NOT float and takes about 10 minutes to remove, so plan ahead for the storm surge.

Yours to borrow if you want. I'd be interested in seeing that video footage. If there is lightning anywhere near, metal armor may not be very safe though.


I was in the SCA and fought in many a tourney (including a few crown tourneys), I know exactly what you are describing. I used as much hardened leather and aluminum as possible so as to get my combo down to sub 60lb range. Not as period but covered easily by tunics and period articles where necessary.

Having said that, I'd rather sacrifice a little protection for the mobility. That and the fact that we're likely to be hunkered down in a parking garage or other secure structure, we'll be able to choose how and when we expose ourselves.

Oz's gear includes much kevlar and other comprehensive protective gear like firemans boots and extrication gloves. I think he'll be good to go...
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Quoting NRAamy:
I was bent at a 45% angle or thereabouts and I was still nearly knocked off my feet when the wind gusted.

and you with your bad back!!!!!!! shame on you!!!!!


The best pain killer is adrenaline, baby!
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I might not be reading this correctly and I know that it is a long way out for models, but I was just looking at the Wunderground GFS map and it has something starting in the nw carib on the 16th and then getting in gulf on the 18th. Possible?

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA
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In my view,depending on how many named storms form in July,that month will tell us if the season will be very active or not.
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Link. Canadian GEM Model.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
I was bent at a 45% angle or thereabouts and I was still nearly knocked off my feet when the wind gusted.

and you with your bad back!!!!!!! shame on you!!!!!
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Quoting Floodman:
Hey, hydrus! Got the avatar thing straightened out, I see!
Yes, thank you very much for your help. I have even put some links and images up. I feel like a computer geek now!...jk
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
Did y'all see the presentation on CNN a little while ago about the product called X Tech-made by Ultra Tech (don't know that either of those are spelled right). They were live on Pensacola Beach.

It's a fabric/carpet like material to separate oil and water with oil eating microbes. Once separated the oil can be reclaimed, the material rinsed and reused. When the microbes finish with the part of the oil they eat, the remainder is fatty acid and breaks down to become something fish can consume. It's currently being tested in Ocean Springs Mississippi.

OMG...ramp up production and release the microbes :) I'm sure it has some kind of down fall, but from the presentation, I can't believe this is not laying all over the surface of the Gulf right now.

Searching for link right now...haven't found one yet.
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208 DestinJeff "...NHC ought to...widen the cone when the storm is a great distance from land..."

errrmm... It could be argued that the various national weather services were set up to provide service for ships at sea, and that extending the service to landlubbers was an afterthought. A ship can move around inclement conditions and into favorable winds, while buildings and crops can only wait for the weather to come to them.
Even during Age of Enlightenment -- ie the beginning of the scientific era -- the ships in any given harbor were worth more than the buildings&infrastructure of the port cities built to handle the trade goods those ships carried. So it made good economic sense to sponsor the sharing of information which might help naval and merchant ships navigate safe passage between rough and becalmed seas. And to inform them as to when to flee harbor for greater safety elsewhere.

It makes little sense to provide less information to sailors just to make it easier for the mostly uninterested to interpret storm-path predictions.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
996 millibars is not low enough for me...

(Cue the "Limbo Dance!")



I need 970 or lower this year! :)


Well la-te-freakin-da!
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Uh...yeah. But the higher the winds, the harder it gets.

A 150 - 170 mph gust hit me as I stood in the middle of Bayou Blvd. in Pensacola, FL during Hurricane Ike.

I had to squat my rear-end till it almost touched the asphalt.

I was not wearing any protective gear. The rain hit me with such power that it felt like I was being attached by a thousand crazed tatoo artists.


Yeah,. I trieed standing up in Jeanne in '04; I was about 4 miles from where the eye made landfall...I was bent at a 45% angle or thereabouts and I was still nearly knocked off my feet when the wind gusted. You might want to carry a really big rock with you...LOL
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Uh...yeah. But the higher the winds, the harder it gets.

A 150 - 170 mph gust hit me as I stood in the middle of Bayou Blvd. in Pensacola, FL during Hurricane Ike.

I had to squat my rear-end till it almost touched the asphalt.

I was not wearing any protective gear. The rain hit me with such power that it felt like I was being attached by a thousand crazed tatoo artists.


I didn't realize that winds were that strong in Pensacola for Ike. Hmmm. Are you sure?
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I had to squat my rear-end till it almost touched the asphalt.


hahahahahahaha!
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Quoting stillwaiting:
stormchic:visitors we'll be coming by this year,how close and to which area gets effected is the ????,the nhc gives a 75% chance of a TC hitting the east coast this year,which is as high of a % I've seen for that!!!


I guess we should all stay alert to what is happening and be prepared. After going through Andrew I became fascinated by the strength of mother nature...I enjoy tracking storms. I am definitely not a professional just very interested.
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Hey, hydrus! Got the avatar thing straightened out, I see!
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"Low and Nimble"..

LOL
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If they saw you walking around in a full suit of medieval plate mail & carrying a camera... you're probably going to be put in protective custody and examined by a team of psychologists. They'll likely assume that you've been off your med's.


hahahahahahahahaha!

:)
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Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting fact;my area,sarasota county in SWFL has NEVER in recorded history had a landfalling major hurricane!!!!!!


You do realize that if Sarasota County gets hit by a major this year it is now your fault?
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I've been able to bring the idea of a Cat 5 suit into the 21st century. No worries.... :)


That's probably for the best. If the police see you standing in a hurricane holding a camera and wearing padding, eye goggles and an impact resistant helmet... they will understand.

If they saw you walking around in a full suit of medieval plate mail & carrying a camera... you're probably going to be put in protective custody and examined by a team of psychologists. They'll likely assume that you've been off your med's.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
charley's eyewall passed 35miles to my south and caused complete devistation,I don't think my area had a wind gust over 40mph,amazing charley was more like a large tornado than anything!!!!!


I had friends that were able to have a nice lunch on Clearwater Beach that day.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting fact;my area,sarasota county in SWFL has NEVER in recorded history had a landfalling major hurricane!!!!!!


OH NO! Don't tempt fate! SmileyCentral.com
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Quoting Floodman:


If you're not tied down you will BE debris. Ever tried standing up in 100mph + winds?
Greetings Floodman.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
Quoting Relix:
Seems like the NWS in PR is taking a good look at our wave. Hopefully it doesn't become anything else though it ain't looking well right now.


relix what are you talking about homie
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Hopefully you will be spared this year as well>
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.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
Quoting CycloneOz:


LOL... :)

I'll actually be fending off debris with my hands (EMP extractor gloves made for car accidents) and my forearms (lacrosse arm guards).

If all else fails, I'll just use my head.

And just in case, I have splints and other first aid stuff that mends gashes.


If you're not tied down you will BE debris. Ever tried standing up in 100mph + winds?
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Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting fact;my area,sarasota county in SWFL has NEVER in recorded history had a landfalling major hurricane!!!!!!


Lets hope it never does.
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charley's eyewall passed 35miles to my south and caused complete devistation,I don't think my area had a wind gust over 40mph,amazing charley was more like a large tornado than anything!!!!!
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stormchic:visitors we'll be coming by this year,how close and to which area gets effected is the ????,the nhc gives a 75% chance of a TC hitting the east coast this year,which is as high of a % I've seen for that!!!
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Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting fact;my area,sarasota county in SWFL has NEVER in recorded history had a landfalling major hurricane!!!!!!


Until 2010...
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I lived in Homestead when Andrew hit. After that my family moved to the Tampa Bay area. I live in Tampa now. Welcome to the blog. :)


Thank you for welcoming me to the blog :) I've lived here all my life. Andrew, is like our calender down here. Everything is now before Andrew, or after Andrew. lol So, I guess it's looking like a busy season huh? I asked the hubby to start the generator this weekend to make sure it's in working order, and started stocking up on supplies..just in case we have an unwelcomed visitor pass by..
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.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22727
One thing to watch for in the Atlantic during this month and the next is how many disturbances we see, not just named storms. I was looking back at the TWO's from 2005 and in the month of June there were quite a few disturbances. Even a few things that were close to developing, but never did.
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interesting fact;my area,sarasota county in SWFL has NEVER in recorded history had a landfalling major hurricane!!!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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