Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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1232. IKE
Looks like the wave at 50 is headed for Pottery and points just north of him.
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I'm noticing that the ITCZ seems to have started its Nward transition.... seems to be staying N of 5N all the time now.

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1230. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nvm...




Looks like the north Atlantic high is suppressing everything. Long range GFS is similar in appearance.
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It's relatively cool here for a June morning... likely the effect of the trough in the area, which kept the weather muggy but not overly hot yesterday.

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1228. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

Ike, how far north is that Twave analysed to be?


From the new discussion...

"TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 11N49W TO 6N46W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS TILTED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 44W-50W."
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Nvm...


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Wow 95 here all week and little rain whew! Ike our busy season is going to be all at one time.
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Morning all.

Ike, how far north is that Twave analysed to be?
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1224. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Boy we don't need anything in the gulf with that mess out there.


I don't see anything.

Down to 67.8....a little cool outside.
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1223. IKE
Looking at the 6Z GFS, it looks like moisture ramps up in the extreme western Caribbean in about a week, but continues west into the east-PAC beyond then.

It looks similar to what the latest ECMWF is showing.

I don't see much activity(a named storm), in the Atlantic for the next 10-14 days off this mornings models.
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Quoting IKE:
68.9 degrees at my house this morning.

Back in 2005, the A storm started today...


Boy we don't need anything in the gulf with that mess out there.
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Morning Ike Cybr, I have 76.1 in zephyrhills and very little rain yesterday .24
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1220. IKE
From San Juan discussion....

"TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 50W THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REACH 70W
BY 18Z FRI AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. LOOKS LIKE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OVR CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR ANY SIG
RAINFALL.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SCT/NRMS TSRA FRI AFTERNOON."
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Ike I'm at 76 degrees and I live in Tampa.
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1218. IKE
68.9 degrees at my house this morning.

Back in 2005, the A storm started today...

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anyway guys see you around 5 or 7 AM tomorrow I am out
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Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
948 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

.AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S IN CONJUNCTION WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105
TO 110 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-081100-
/O.CON.KLIX.HT.Y.0001.100608T1400Z-100610T2300Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
948 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY...

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY.

HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A SHORT
REPRIEVE TO THE HEAT IN SOME AREAS...OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE HEAT INDEX IS A MEASURE OF HOW HOT IT FEELS WHEN THE EFFECTS
OF HUMIDITY ARE COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE. A HEAT INDEX OF
105 DEGREES IS CONSIDERED THE LEVEL WHERE MANY PEOPLE BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE EXTREME DISCOMFORT OR PHYSICAL STRESS. THE HEAT INDEX
IS MEASURED UNDER SHADY CONDITIONS...AND DIRECT EXPOSURE TO
SUNLIGHT CAN INCREASE THE HEAT INDEX AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES.

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

&&

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I have also wondered about what the MJO is? After doing some internet research in the past, this is my best answer for what it is (MJO stands for Madden-Julian Oscillation, named after the scientists who discovered it)

Equatorial storms fire over the Indian Ocean at the start of the oscillation, leading to enhanced upper divergence and upper ridging above the storms. To the northeast and southeast of the upper ridging is relative low pressure air aloft for upper troughs in both the southern and northern hemispheres, and the upper trough flows converge and create sinking air in the tropics to the east of the storminess. The lack of sunlight beneath the storms cools the ocean while sunlight heats the ocean to the east where storms are lacking. A sufficiently hotter ocean to the east destabilizes the atmosphere so that the sinking motion is overcome for an eastward transition of the storms over fueling warmth, and the storms leave behind relatively cooler water to the west. The MJO wave of storms continually propagates east with this process across the Pacific toward the Atlantic. Another MJO wave develops in the Indian Ocean after a sufficient reheating, resetting the oscillation.


Thanks, while waiting for a response, I, too did some research, which led me to a slightly different slant on the process. The essentials were the same with a somewhat more lengthly and different perspective. Thanks for the insight
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Quick photoshop work tonight on the blog, LOL


The Shadow...knows.
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Quick photoshop work tonight on the blog, LOL
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,
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An example of a season heavily influenced by the MJO was in 2002 (link)

2002 was an El Nino year, El Nino usually increasing shear in the Atlantic so that tropical cyclones struggle to form. But in September 2002, an MJO wave arrived:

June 2002: 0 Atl tropical cyclone formations
July 2002: 1 Atl tropical cyclone formations
August 2002: 3 Atl tropical cyclones form
Sept 2002: 9 Atl tropical cyclone formations
Oct 2002: 1 Atl tropical cyclone forms

Factors like El Nino/La Nina, or the warm phase of the Atlatic multi-decadal influence (which has been enhancing Atl storms since 1995) determine whether the season is overall inactive or active. MJO controls active-inactive periods WITHIN a single season.
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.
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1206. xcool
Im better that.anyway
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Are those Cat 4 winds or is it a 5?
Hurricane Harry don't take no jive!
Do you feel lucky, junk?
Well, do ya...punk?
Your choice may keep you alive!
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Quoting aspectre:
This is a golfball propelled to 150miles per hour _ This is the golfball hitting a wall at high Cat.4
- - -
...you've gotta ask yourself a question, "Do I feel lucky?"... -- Harry Callahan, practical physicist


Maybe I'll stay away from driving ranges during a Cat 4 or more....
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1203. xcool
Who.
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I am off to NITE NITE.......so NITE NITE!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
From my understanding, I think the Atlantic is currently to the east of the current MJO wave (which would imply a GENERAL tendency of sinking air in the tropical latitudes of the Atlantic). Once the MJO wave arrives, the upper ridging associated with the enhanced storms will reverse this to reduced shear and a tendency for lift in the Atlantic tropics.
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Quoting Dakster:


Woah... That is a little too hot... Talk about being able to fry and egg on the sidewalk. I could cook my ham, eggs, steak, make coffee...Almost make hard boiled eggs...


...And get trenched in bucketfuls of sweat(dewpoint 95F) but with absolutely no relief lol!
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1197. xcool
Hey.i.m on my cel
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Quoting Fla55Native:


Please forgive my ignorance, but what is "MJO"? I've been racking my brains trying to figure it out.


I have also wondered about what the MJO is? After doing some internet research in the past, this is my best answer for what it is (MJO stands for Madden-Julian Oscillation, named after the scientists who discovered it)

Equatorial storms fire over the Indian Ocean at the start of the oscillation, leading to enhanced upper divergence and upper ridging above the storms. To the northeast and southeast of the upper ridging is relative low pressure air aloft for upper troughs in both the southern and northern hemispheres, and the upper trough flows converge and create sinking air in the tropics to the east of the storminess. The lack of sunlight beneath the storms cools the ocean while sunlight heats the ocean to the east where storms are lacking. A sufficiently hotter ocean to the east destabilizes the atmosphere so that the sinking motion is overcome for an eastward transition of the storms over fueling warmth, and the storms leave behind relatively cooler water to the west. The MJO wave of storms continually propagates east with this process across the Pacific toward the Atlantic. Another MJO wave develops in the Indian Ocean after a sufficient reheating, resetting the oscillation.
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Quoting aspectre:
This is a golfball propelled to 150miles per hour _ This is the golfball hitting a wall at high Cat.4
- - -
...you've gotta ask yourself a question, "Do I feel lucky?"... -- Harry Callahan, practical physicist

thats assuming the ball would reach the windspeed and unless Im mistaken that seems unlikely ... of course the "gusting to 165" might do the trick
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Quoting ElConando:
Weather Student you win this brand new car!!!



Tax, title, and tag not included!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Where??

GFS

Xcool get a life. He trolled you. Congrats. Anyway yeah, latest GFS shows a lot of convection/ low pressure in the Carribean (any of which could spin up into a storm unexpectedly) but no storms.
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Quoting Fla55Native:


Please forgive my ignorance, but what is "MJO"? I've been racking my brains trying to figure it out.


Basically an abbundance of moisture in the Atmosphere that circles the globe about every 40-50 days
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its coming as MJO returns....about that time.....nothing we can do but be prepared.


Please forgive my ignorance, but what is "MJO"? I've been racking my brains trying to figure it out.
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This is a golfball propelled to 150miles per hour _ This is the golfball hitting a wall at high Cat.4
- - -
...you've gotta ask yourself a question, "Do I feel lucky?"... -- Harry Callahan, practical physicist
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From this current blog (2nd picture in main):
Quoting idzrvit:

Bad timing with this car coming by! For a small town, there sure was a lot of traffic!


No need to fret! There's a Photoshop app for that! :)

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Weather Student you win this brand new car!!!

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Come to my blogsite and i will show you!


There is shadow under this red rock,
(Come in under the shadow of this red rock),
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.

from T.S. Elliot's "The Waste Land"
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Quoting CycloneOz:


...Congratulations! You're the one millionth poster to ask a question that cannot be answered!

Johnny! Tell him what he's won!

(Johnny) He's Won A New Car!

LOL!
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting TropicalWave:
tim, how bad could it get in july?


Come to my blogsite and i will show you!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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