Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Quoting Grothar:


YO! cyclone!!! Looks like an interesting season coming up, ya think?
Very interesting....Jedoch ich möchte alle hören aufhören „wir sind gonna sieht einen Sturm im Juni, weil der MJO negativ ist nicht“ „mee..mee..mee...meee...“ BLAH! Haha.
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380. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I have a real interest in this wave at 41W. I think some serious intensification could happen in the NW Caribbean. It will be interesting if other models jump onboard with this potential. If you guys remember on Memorial Day weekend the GFS had this wave as a strong tropical storm in the GOM.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'm all ready for the season. Plenty of Glad trash bags filled with ice :)


Scented or unscented?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
There's some out there somewhere saying "it's a week into June and no storm, that's it, it's a bust! season is over"
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Most Incredible Audio Effects Generated by Landfalling Hurricanes

Hurricane Ivan:
When this monster storm roared ashore in September 2004, there was a distinctive "thump-thump-thump" sound that I could hear clearly. However, my video recorder did not pick it up. It sounded like the diesel engine of a phantom ghost ship.

Hurricane Dennis: The evening before this early July storm made landfall in 2005, I could plainly hear what sounded like a busy airport to the south, with sortie after sortie taking off. But it was 2:00 AM in Cantonment, FL and I knew full well that the Pensacola Regional Airport was closed. So what was causing this sound? Hurricane Dennis, that's what! Still some distance from land, this hurricane was wound up tighter than a drum and still a major category storm. The sounds emanating from it were so powerful that they bounced off the atmosphere and could be heard a couple of hundred miles away.
I experienced the most horrifying noise of my life in the eyewall of Georges as it came ashore as a cat 3 in La Romana, DR. It sounded like thousands of little girls screaming nonstop. Deafening.
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Quoting Greyelf:


Uh, gas cans on the roof of your METAL vehicle that will likely be rain soaked? Heh...you ARE brave...and yeah, in that case they probably should evacuate. :)


Is there some inherent danger from having (10) five-gallon plastic gas cans on my mini-van roof that I'm not aware of?
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I'm all ready for the season. Plenty of Glad trash bags filled with ice :)
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Quoting extreme236:
Tropical wave at 41W will have to be watched...GFS has moisture from it heading toward PR later this week and NWS PR is expecting it to be a strong wave.


I expect this wave is going to develope this weekend. This will be one to watch once it arrives in the NW Caribbean.
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I can still turn a few eyes, unfortunatly they are usually my contacts

I don't turn eyes....stomachs yes....


;)
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Quoting CycloneOz:


...and a load of gas cans on the roof...EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY! ;)


Uh, gas cans on the roof of your METAL vehicle that will likely be rain soaked? Heh...you ARE brave...and yeah, in that case they probably should evacuate. :)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Full fledge panic was setting in on Houston/Galveston area about this time...




I expect to see three or four of these in the Gulf this year.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
GROTHAR!!!! Long time no "see".


YO! cyclone!!! Looks like an interesting season coming up, ya think?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
SST Diffrence between 2010 and 2005 at this time of year... click image to enlarge

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Still waiting....it was def more than a tornado. I see your point about being compact. That was the wildest 2 hours ever..(fast i know) I am in the cape...got about 110mph here. 20k in damage...the wild thing was the lil amount of rain with it. I sandbagged for a day in prep....i learned so much about surge and how it piles up from that one. There was no surge at all due to its turn and speed.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Full fledge panic was setting in on Houston/Galveston area about this time...





Hey, I just posted that for hydrus in post #355, What are you trying to do? LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
Quoting Grothar:


Hey hydrus, look a few posts below, I'll bet people would like to see an image of Hurrican Rita.
GROTHAR!!!! Long time no "see".
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Quoting NRAamy:
hydrus, don't feel bad. I still cannot post a moving image. Flood, Weather456 and Tampaspin have all tried to walk me through it and I still cant do it.

that's 'cause you're old!!!!

;)


Not that old! LOL I can still turn a few eyes, unfortunatly they are usually my contacts.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
Full fledge panic was setting in on Houston/Galveston area about this time...


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Quoting StormW:


You'll definitely be informed, and with good forecast information. I helped some folks get out of harms way during IKE. If ya get the chance, talk to homelesswanderer.


Yes and Thank you for that. :) Storm will let you know what's going on. Sometimes the locals aren't the best source to turn to (to say the least) There are other knowledgeable bloggers on this site as well. I've learned a lot since finding this site after Edouard.
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Hurricane Survival Strategy - Texas / Louisana Border

The border between Texas and Louisana is a historically active area for hurricane landfalls. In 2010, this area is still a possible bullseye for a direct hit.

The entire area is subject to severe storm surge damage, as well as the destruction wrought by hurricane-force winds.

Since there are no structures in this area that I could base hurricane interception operations, the question arises.

What survival strategy would I use to document a hurricane's landfall in this area?

Surprisingly, I was able to develop one! Should it be implemented, viewers of the free internet portable and live web cam will be more than pleased with my solution.
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Quoting hydrus:
.


Hey hydrus, look a few posts below, I'll bet people would like to see an image of Hurrican Rita.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
hydrus, don't feel bad. I still cannot post a moving image. Flood, Weather456 and Tampaspin have all tried to walk me through it and I still cant do it.

that's 'cause you're old!!!!

;)
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358. IKE
Quoting xcool:
What yields more landfalling U.S. hurricanes is a cold PDO and warm AMO... with the warm AMO being the big factor.

The colder theory makes little sense. The claim is that less sunspot activity means a colder upper atmosphere which increases instability. That may be nice for classic thunderstorms, but that doesn't carry the day since a tropical system WARMS the upper atmosphere over it by releasing latent heat through the thunderstorms. The idea that the initial cool start may lead to more thunderstorms is novel at best, but there is the still the little matter of "handoff" from baroclinically induced thunderstorms, to the true forced convection that hurricanes rely on... warm, moist air rushing in with strong upward motion and releasing latent heat at the top the of the column and WARMING the middle and upper levels over the storm. Years when air is drier aloft, and wet bulbs are lower, and we saw that last year and in 2006, both very low sunspot years guess what... bye-bye.

I refer you to this: http://www-eaps.mit.edu/~rap/courses/12333_notes/Chap9.pdf

Please scroll down to page 12. The vertical cross section of hurricane Inez shows how WARM the air is in the upper levels of the hurricane, not colder.

In fact, the classic cross-section of the hurricane shows the tropopause pushed up much higher than normal, and the only cooling is in the stratosphere above the storm. A well established and intensifying storm is warming the atmosphere over it, and colder or drier air serves to destroy the storm. There may be an initial increase in convection as cooler air enters a storm, but if the attack continues, kiss it goodbye. One can watch what happens when cooler air enters the storm at any level and see that. The storm is just that, a heat engine but it reverses higher up BECAUSE OF WARMING.

The AMO is the big predictor. Low sunspot cycles occurred in 1944 a big year and around 1955 (both with a warm AMO) a big year (two hits) but then how does one explain 1965-1966? One big storm hit the United States, Betsy in two years. In 1976-1977, the only hit was Belle and both years were way down. In 1986-1987, the cycle hit a low point in slightly less than 11 years, there were NO big hits. The AMO was cold. The low spot for the cycle 23 was around 1997 and that was a non year for strong hurricane hits, as the atmosphere overwhelmed it with El Nino. 1998 had George and Bonnie and then 1999 was big year but we were out of the nino and the low sunspot cycle. 2006-2009 has had no relationship with sunspots, but with the overall global drivers. 2006 was a non year, 2007 major activity stayed away, 2008 it hit, and last year it stayed away.

I am very wary of baroclinic arguments for large-scale storm intensification. I think there are handoff systems and that is a tricky thing, but while I might be wrong, blaming sunspots for increased landfall is not something I believe in. The warm AMO, the increased WARMTH in the deep levels all the way to the top of the troposphere is what is understood to be the driver. Colder-than-normal, or drier-than-normal, conditions, which if one saturates the air from below would force too much cooling, impedes storm development. It has been associated with "bursting" patterns, the sudden increase in convection, which then collapses and is followed by weakening.

One only need look at the AMO vs. strong hurricane hits go to the sunspot cycle vs. the AMO when it's warm and cold and it will eliminate the sunspot idea. The limit of sunspots and the weather and climate to me is with some longer-term ideas, not proven, but suspected and I think shorter-term tropical implications are suspect at best.

Let's look at the four years ending 2005, with higher sunspot activity and four years ending 2009 with lower, and one will find that deep-level warmth in the tropical breeding grounds and favorable water temps were the keys, obviously not sunspots, since the last four years of mins have produced much less, with only 1 above normal impact year. The argument quickly falls apart here, with two mega years and two normal to slightly above U.S. landfall years the higher sunspot years.

Others have not taken a stand on this matter, but as much as I love the work at FSU in tropical meteorology, this is not something I agree with.
by joe


I guess there's nothing he sees in the next few days in the Atlantic. No mention of anything.
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.
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That is SO halarious!HAHAHA...I hope I DONT see you in my neiborhood this season!!!!
Quoting StormW:


You'll definitely be informed, and with good forecast information. We have some very excellent folks on here, not only for forecasting, but for prepardeness as well! I helped some folks get out of harms way during IKE. If ya get the chance, talk to homelesswanderer.

Ok I will ...yall are wonderful on here...
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onb't you post an image of
Rita hydrus

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
Quoting Grothar:


hydrus, don't feel bad. I still cannot post a moving image. Flood, Weather456 and Tampaspin have all tried to walk me through it and I still cant do it.
We will figure it out.. ;0
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353. xcool
What yields more landfalling U.S. hurricanes is a cold PDO and warm AMO... with the warm AMO being the big factor.

The colder theory makes little sense. The claim is that less sunspot activity means a colder upper atmosphere which increases instability. That may be nice for classic thunderstorms, but that doesn't carry the day since a tropical system WARMS the upper atmosphere over it by releasing latent heat through the thunderstorms. The idea that the initial cool start may lead to more thunderstorms is novel at best, but there is the still the little matter of "handoff" from baroclinically induced thunderstorms, to the true forced convection that hurricanes rely on... warm, moist air rushing in with strong upward motion and releasing latent heat at the top the of the column and WARMING the middle and upper levels over the storm. Years when air is drier aloft, and wet bulbs are lower, and we saw that last year and in 2006, both very low sunspot years guess what... bye-bye.

I refer you to this: http://www-eaps.mit.edu/~rap/courses/12333_notes/Chap9.pdf

Please scroll down to page 12. The vertical cross section of hurricane Inez shows how WARM the air is in the upper levels of the hurricane, not colder.

In fact, the classic cross-section of the hurricane shows the tropopause pushed up much higher than normal, and the only cooling is in the stratosphere above the storm. A well established and intensifying storm is warming the atmosphere over it, and colder or drier air serves to destroy the storm. There may be an initial increase in convection as cooler air enters a storm, but if the attack continues, kiss it goodbye. One can watch what happens when cooler air enters the storm at any level and see that. The storm is just that, a heat engine but it reverses higher up BECAUSE OF WARMING.

The AMO is the big predictor. Low sunspot cycles occurred in 1944 a big year and around 1955 (both with a warm AMO) a big year (two hits) but then how does one explain 1965-1966? One big storm hit the United States, Betsy in two years. In 1976-1977, the only hit was Belle and both years were way down. In 1986-1987, the cycle hit a low point in slightly less than 11 years, there were NO big hits. The AMO was cold. The low spot for the cycle 23 was around 1997 and that was a non year for strong hurricane hits, as the atmosphere overwhelmed it with El Nino. 1998 had George and Bonnie and then 1999 was big year but we were out of the nino and the low sunspot cycle. 2006-2009 has had no relationship with sunspots, but with the overall global drivers. 2006 was a non year, 2007 major activity stayed away, 2008 it hit, and last year it stayed away.

I am very wary of baroclinic arguments for large-scale storm intensification. I think there are handoff systems and that is a tricky thing, but while I might be wrong, blaming sunspots for increased landfall is not something I believe in. The warm AMO, the increased WARMTH in the deep levels all the way to the top of the troposphere is what is understood to be the driver. Colder-than-normal, or drier-than-normal, conditions, which if one saturates the air from below would force too much cooling, impedes storm development. It has been associated with "bursting" patterns, the sudden increase in convection, which then collapses and is followed by weakening.

One only need look at the AMO vs. strong hurricane hits go to the sunspot cycle vs. the AMO when it's warm and cold and it will eliminate the sunspot idea. The limit of sunspots and the weather and climate to me is with some longer-term ideas, not proven, but suspected and I think shorter-term tropical implications are suspect at best.

Let's look at the four years ending 2005, with higher sunspot activity and four years ending 2009 with lower, and one will find that deep-level warmth in the tropical breeding grounds and favorable water temps were the keys, obviously not sunspots, since the last four years of mins have produced much less, with only 1 above normal impact year. The argument quickly falls apart here, with two mega years and two normal to slightly above U.S. landfall years the higher sunspot years.

Others have not taken a stand on this matter, but as much as I love the work at FSU in tropical meteorology, this is not something I agree with.
by joe
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
..
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Quoting hydrus:
Yes, thank you very much for your help. I have even put some links and images up. I feel like a computer geek now!...jk


hydrus, don't feel bad. I still cannot post a moving image. Flood, Weather456 and Tampaspin have all tried to walk me through it and I still cant do it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27059
.
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Link

The night crawlers just love us. The sounds of Ike. Very creepy.
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347. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting txsweetpea:
Well I live on the Tx /La border and just want to be prepared. My log in name used to be "weatherganny" but I had numerous complications trying to log in with my old log in this year amd was forced to create a new one. I have spoke with several of you before and I really appreciate all of the "wisdom" on this blog.


I expect to be in your neighborhood soon. Remember, if you see a plain white mini-van flying hurricane flags and a load of gas cans on the roof...EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY! ;)
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He's giving me the heeby-jeebies...

or the hokey pokies?

;)
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344. xcool
hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CycloneOz:


Delirium tremens (colloquially, the DTs, "the shakes", "the horrors", "the heebie geebies", "the fear", "the abdabs", "the staggers and jags", "the jimjams", "jazz hands", "the shakes and the heaves", or "the rats"

The main symptoms are confusion, diarrhea, disorientation and agitation and other signs of severe autonomic instability (fever, tachycardia, hypertension.


hehe DTs to me always meant DeTox
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Well I live on the Tx /La border and just want to be prepared. My log in name used to be "weatherganny" but I had numerous complications trying to log in with my old log in this year amd was forced to create a new one. I have spoke with several of you before and I really appreciate all of the "wisdom" on this blog.
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Quoting TampaTom:


He's giving me the heeby-jeebies...


Delirium tremens (colloquially, the DTs, "the shakes", "the horrors", "the heebie geebies", "the fear", "the abdabs", "the staggers and jags", "the jimjams", "jazz hands", "the shakes and the heaves", or "the rats")

The main symptoms are confusion, diarrhea, disorientation and agitation and other signs of severe autonomic instability (fever, tachycardia, hypertension.)
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Quoting SaraGal:


Please don't put the 'hinky-jinks' on us! :)


He's giving me the heeby-jeebies...
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From this blog:

Quoting idzrvit:
Bad timing with this car coming by! For a small town, there sure was a lot of traffic!


No need to fret! They make a Photoshop for that!

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hey all....First of all I am not weather person, I am a nurse and I jsut would like to know some opinions of what you guys think the outlook is for hurricane season 2010... i have read the predicitons...but I always learn so much from most of you and would like some imput.
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Tropical wave at 41W will have to be watched...GFS has moisture from it heading toward PR later this week and NWS PR is expecting it to be a strong wave.
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Think some rotation is going on here in Brazoria county TX....

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334. IKE
ECMWF@12Z
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I see the waves still moving along out there in atlantic. models insist no alex this week with them. next week? well see!
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Gonna on a hot bike ride.......NO fighting kids!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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