Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Quoting MrstormX:


Poor Miami, I swear you guys have storms popping up everyday. Ironically 90 miles away in the Bahamas they have sun almost every day.


You know what they say about Miami? If you dont like the weather, wait 5 minutes.
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Quoting Torgen:


Man, scoot some of that over to Tampa, we're parched! My poor tomatoes are done for.


Yeah, the rain missed us again today so far. We really could use it!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting 850Realtor:


They were stoked to be famous! I said Hey CycloneOz and PensacolaDoug. The look on their faces was priceless!

Welcome! Been here since 2007 happy to answer any questions you may have.
Sup Hydrus?
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Quoting Torgen:


Man, scoot some of that over to Tampa, we're parched! My poor tomatoes are done for.


Wow its still bad there? I was last in your region in January, and everything was bone dry and the grass a dead mixture of yellow and browns. Are you guys in a drought?
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Quoting Torgen:


Man, scoot some of that over to Tampa, we're parched! My poor tomatoes are done for.


I believe the pattern is going to change shortly. Morning showers on the east coast and the storms firing up in the afternoon heading west.
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We are having a really bad rain storm in Broward. Hope it heads your way Geoff!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Here we go again:



Man, scoot some of that over to Tampa, we're parched! My poor tomatoes are done for.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Here we go again:



Poor Miami, I swear you guys have storms popping up everyday. Ironically 90 miles away in the Bahamas they have sun almost every day.
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Here we go again:

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Quoting Grothar:


Not that old! LOL I can still turn a few eyes, unfortunatly they are usually my contacts.


And he has a great smile. He told me how he likes to wake up in the morning and see those pearly whites smiling at him from the nightstand.
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The low pressure system center over SW Missouri briefly had an eye-like feature and a mesocyclone.



81 people total have been killed by Cyclone Phet in Oman, Pakistan and India.
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Today's CONUS overview.





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Quoting Relix:


Yeah it's not going anywhere.


watch out for that crow

anyway i maybe could get some decent patillas maunabo surf out of it
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Quoting Grothar:
This is Grothars world...........He just lets us live here.....:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22705
Oz...you are too much! LMAO!
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Is there some inherent danger from having (10) five-gallon plastic gas cans on my mini-van roof that I'm not aware of?


As long as you're not filling them while they're loaded on your vehicle, which I doubt you are since they're on top, you should be fine. No different than riding them around while they're in the bed of a truck.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Hurricane Survival Strategy - Texas / Louisana Border

The border between Texas and Louisana is a historically active area for hurricane landfalls. In 2010, this area is still a possible bullseye for a direct hit.

The entire area is subject to severe storm surge damage, as well as the destruction wrought by hurricane-force winds.

Since there are no structures in this area that I could base hurricane interception operations, the question arises.

What survival strategy would I use to document a hurricane's landfall in this area?

Surprisingly, I was able to develop one! Should it be implemented, viewers of the free internet portable and live web cam will be more than pleased with my solution.

Hey this is my area ......I am very interested in you solution.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


She's not kidding folks. She found me and PensacolaDoug sitting in her neighborhood at the Dewberry's property (home destroyed by Ivan) as Hurricane Ida weakened.

She walked up from behind us to my open window. Scared the bajeebers out of me!


They were stoked to be famous! I said Hey CycloneOz and PensacolaDoug. The look on their faces was priceless!
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Hurricane Camille - August 1969



Wow, it's amazing how land areas have really changed shape since then...
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Looks like BP may be trying a new top hat soon ... they appear to have lowered two new ones on a skid in frame 4 of this multi-video page. They apparently have a number of different designs ready to go as successive experiments fail. I'm guessing the current one did just that.

New top hat?
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Quoting jeffs713:

My best advice to you is:

1. Use your ignore list liberally.
2. Follow some of the other featured and knowledgeable bloggers on here (Levi32, Weather456, StormW, TampaSpin, Drakoen, Atmoaggie, to name a few)
3. If something sounds way out of whack, it probably is.
4. If someone sounds 100% sure something will happen, it probably won't.
5. Most importantly, if you have questions, ask someone who has been around for a while. I could rattle off names all day, but those I mentioned above are good resources, and I can also help to point you in the right direction. Just ask via WUmail.


I know better now, but for someone new it was a little overwhelming and intense.
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409. Relix
Quoting serialteg:


shear not helpin



Yeah it's not going anywhere.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Quoting CycloneOz:
Hurricane Camille - August 1969

Yeah, we have a different name for that one Oz....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22705
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Relix:
I am not seeing how the wave will lift up and affect the NE carribean as the NWS is saying. Maybe just the moisture related to it? Also, it has turning. Looks very bad on satellite though


shear not helpin

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Quoting NRAamy:
He's giving me the heeby-jeebies...

or the hokey pokies?

;)


Is that REALLY what it's all about?
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Quoting 850Realtor:


For real...I started lurking this blog and a few other weather forums back in 2008. I was so obsessed with them and what was being discussed I had more than one full blown panic attack because of the wishcasters, eastcasters and westcasters. I had never had one before and haven't had one since. I was messed up the whole month of September and completely missed Ike and Gustav's landfall. Part of this was caused because we were spanked by Ivan in 2004 and these were just too big and too close for comfort. We were nowhere near either landfall, but the surge created by those two storms caused problems for us all the way over here. I get a nervous twitch when something that size is anywhere in the Gulf. Just goes to show sometimes the posting can be a little much...especially for newbies that don't know who to trust in here.

My best advice to you is:

1. Use your ignore list liberally.
2. Follow some of the other featured and knowledgeable bloggers on here (Levi32, Weather456, StormW, TampaSpin, Drakoen, Atmoaggie, to name a few)
3. If something sounds way out of whack, it probably is.
4. If someone sounds 100% sure something will happen, it probably won't.
5. Most importantly, if you have questions, ask someone who has been around for a while. I could rattle off names all day, but those I mentioned above are good resources, and I can also help to point you in the right direction. Just ask via WUmail.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


I expect to be in your neighborhood soon. Remember, if you see a plain white mini-van flying hurricane flags and a load of gas cans on the roof...EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY! ;)


I saw him...that really did happen! He came in my neighborhood. You can either run screaming and evacuate or find him a boat to go out in and watch the show :)
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400. Relix
I am not seeing how the wave will lift up and affect the NE carribean as the NWS is saying. Maybe just the moisture related to it? Also, it has turning. Looks very bad on satellite though
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
Quoting CycloneOz:


Now you've gone and done it!


Someone opened the Pandora's Box.
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Quoting hydrus:
. I would imagine there was panic when this was coming at you too.


Actually there wasn't, we were calm, it was only 110mph and figured it was gonna turn like Rita.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Delirium tremens (colloquially, the DTs, "the shakes", "the horrors", "the heebie geebies", "the fear", "the abdabs", "the staggers and jags", "the jimjams", "jazz hands", "the shakes and the heaves", or "the rats")

The main symptoms are confusion, diarrhea, disorientation and agitation and other signs of severe autonomic instability (fever, tachycardia, hypertension.)


For real...I started lurking this blog and a few other weather forums back in 2008. I was so obsessed with them and what was being discussed I had more than one full blown panic attack because of the wishcasters, eastcasters and westcasters. I had never had one before and haven't had one since. I was messed up the whole month of September and completely missed Ike and Gustav's landfall. Part of this was caused because we were spanked by Ivan in 2004 and these were just too big and too close for comfort. We were nowhere near either landfall, but the surge created by those two storms caused problems for us all the way over here. I get a nervous twitch when something that size is anywhere in the Gulf. Just goes to show sometimes the posting can be a little much...especially for newbies that don't know who to trust in here.
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393. xcool
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2010


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W FROM 4N TO 11N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS BEGINNING TO TRAIL A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
. I would imagine there was panic when this was coming at you too.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22705
Wind Shear in the Atlantic Basin comapred to average.

MID ATL Development Region (MDR)


Caribbean Sea:


Gulf of Mexico:
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PR WILL
RETROGRESS WITH AXIS TO STRETCH ALONG 70W BY TUE. TROUGH
FILLS/WEAKENS MID WEEK WITH STRONG MID LVL RIDGING BUILDING OVR THE
AREA. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
FRI-SAT BRINGING POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER.

DISCUSSION...MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OVR THE WILL
RETROGRESS TO ALONG 70W NEXT 24 HRS AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT/NMRS STRONG CONVECTION TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ALL GUIDANCE INDICATE A SHARP AND NOTABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTION
WED-THU AS TROF FILLS/WEAKENS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 40W.

NEXT SIG WX MAKER IS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH 00Z GFS INDICATES AXIS MOVING THROUGH PR FRI EVENING.
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING VERY ACTIVE WX FOR PR/USVI FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT WITH PW VALUES RISING TO 2.5 INCHES AND K
INDICES UP T0 40.

AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED BTWN
07/17Z-07/22Z...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. WATCH FOR
FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LATEST
00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO 25K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT ALL WATERS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH NMRS TSTMS.


looks more itcz right now
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387. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CycloneOz:


Is there some inherent danger from having (10) five-gallon plastic gas cans on my mini-van roof that I'm not aware of?


While they are plastic containers and not attractive to lightning, it just seems to be tempting fate combining gasoline near very wet metal. Then again, I'm not exactly all that informed about explosions. Just call me Mrs. Overcautious. :)
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Last year when the virus hit WU they put up the warning box telling you that you are being taken to a different site. When I click O.K. it won't take me to the site? Could somebody tell me what I need to do to correct this. TIA
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes and Thank you for that. :) Storm will let you know what's going on. Sometimes the locals aren't the best source to turn to (to say the least) There are other knowledgeable bloggers on this site as well. I've learned a lot since finding this site after Edouard.


Just popping in to catch up and thought I would say hello. There a quite a few people in Beaumont, who ask me what my weather blog is saying about a particular storm or situation. For anyone on the TX/LA boarder this site should be a daily visit during hurricane season.
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Quoting Grothar:


Scented or unscented?


Scented of course. It adds that little zip of flavor.
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Quoting Grothar:


YO! cyclone!!! Looks like an interesting season coming up, ya think?
Very interesting....Jedoch ich möchte alle hören aufhören „wir sind gonna sieht einen Sturm im Juni, weil der MJO negativ ist nicht“ „mee..mee..mee...meee...“ BLAH! Haha.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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